Transcript A 9 stage model of conflict escalation,

A Nine Stage Model of
Conflict Escalation
by F.Glasl
Discomfort
Incidents
Misunderstandings
Tension
Crisis
Hardening
Actions not
words
Images and
coalitions
Loss of Face
Fragmentation
of the enemy
Debates
Polemics
Strategies of
Threat
Limited
Destructive
Blows
A stage model of conflict escalation
Together into
the abyss
9 stages of conflict escalation
• 1. "Hardening"
• 2. "Debates and polemics"
• 3. "Actions, not words"
• 4. "Images and coalitions"
• 5. "Loss of face"
• 6. "Strategies of threats"
• 7. "Limited destructive blows"
• 8. "Fragmentation of the enemy"
• 9. "Together into the abyss"
A stage model of conflict escalation
1. "Hardening"
• Positions sometimes harden and clash
• Occasional glitches and spam
• Awareness of the tensions that causes spasm
• Conviction that tensions can be resolved
through talking
• Parties and fractions not yet entrenched
• Cooperation still stronger than
competitiveness
A stage model of conflict escalation
2. "Debates and polemics"
• Polarization of thinking, feeling, will
• Either/or thinking
• Tactics: pretend to argue rationally
• Verbal violence
• Speeches to an „audience“: scoring points via
third parties
• Temporary grouping form around certain
stances
• Discrepancy overtone-undertone
• Fighting for dominance
• Oscillation between co-operation and
competitiveness
A stage model of conflict escalation
3. "Actions, not words"
• Talking no longer helps – so actions are called
for
• Discrepancy between verbal and non-verbal
behaviour – non verbal dominates
• Danger of misinterpreting actions
• Pessimistic expectations rooted in suspicion
accelerate the conflict
• „Group Skin“ pressure for conformity
• Empathy is lost
• Competitiveness stronger than cooperation
A stage model of conflict escalation
4. Images and Coalitions
• Stereotypical Images, cliches in relation to
knowledge and abilities; image campaigns and
rumours
• Parties manoeuvre each other into negative
roles and fight these roles
• Wooing of supporters; weakness leads to a
need for support
• Self-fulfilling prophecy through fixation on
images
• Covert provocation that is difficult to prove,
snide remarks, irritation
• “Double bind” through paradoxical orders
A stage model of conflict escalation
5. Loss of face
• Public and direct personal attacks – moral
integrity is lost
• Staging of unmasked activities as a ritual:
exposure leads to disillusionment
• Image: angel – devil
• Loss of external perceptiveness, isolation
• Ideology, values, principals !
• Striving for rehabilitation
A stage model of conflict escalation
6.Strategies of Threat
• Spiral of threats and counter-threats
• Triangle of threats: Correlation
demand/punishment/potential for punishment
• Locking in oneself and each other (tripwires)
• Manoeuvring oneself into compulsion to act;
loss of initiative
• Stress increased through ultimatums and
counter-ultimatums;
• Acceleration
A stage model of conflict escalation
7. Limited destructive blows
• Thinking only revolves around ‚inanimate
objects‘
• Human qualities no longer valid
• Limited destruction as ‘appropriate response’
• Reversal of values and virtues into their
opposites: relatively small damage is
considered a ‘benefit’
A stage model of conflict escalation
8. Fragmentation of the enemy
• Bringing about total breakdown of the enemy
system
• Destroying vital system factors to make the
system unmanageable
• Isolating ‘front fighters from their hinterland’
• Complete destruction: Body, Soul and Spirit
A stage model of conflict escalation
9. Together into the abyss
• No way back
• Total confrontation
• Destruction of the enemy even at the price of
self-destruction
• Enjoyment of self-destruction – provided the
enemy will not survive !
• Willingness to cause severe damage to the
environment or successors through one’s own
downfall
A stage model of conflict escalation