Transcript CCAT final end-user meeting Environmental results

Results of the environmental
assessments with the CCAT-tool
W. de Vries, J.P. Lesschen, J. Kros,
M. Kempen and B.S. Elbersen
Alterra, Wageningen UR and University of Bonn
CCAT end-user meeting, 30 March 2010
Outline
• CCAT approach to predict environmental
indicators
• Environmental indicators
– Description and base line results
– Comparison results with other studies
• Cross compliance measures
• Results environmental assessments
– Effect of separate measures (graphs)
– All SMRs and GAECs (maps of baselines and effects)
• Conclusions
Approach
• Existing models are further adapted and
integrated into the CCAT tool
• Basis of the CCAT tool
– Economic model CAPRI
– Environmental assessment model MITERRAEurope
– Meta-models of the detailed biogeochemical
models DNDC and EPIC, for a limited number
of indicators and measures
CAPRI
Livestock, landuse
Base line 2005
CC measures
Excretion model
MITERRA
Excretion
C, N, P, metals
housing model
MITERRA
manure/fertiliser model
MITERRA
Uptake model
MITERRA
input to soil
C, N, P, Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn
uptake
N, P, metals
Soil module
MITERRA
housing emission
NH3, N2O, CH4
DNDC metamodel
soil emission
NH3, N2O, CH4
EPIC metamodel
N leaching,
runoff
erosion
MITERRA-Europe
• A tool for integrated assessment of N, P and C budgets
and emissions from agriculture in EU-27 at Member
State and regional levels (NUTS-2)
• Developed for the European Commission
• Based on information from CAPRI and RAINS/GAINS
• Simple/rapid model
• Uniform approach for EU-27
• Analysis of scenarios and measures
MITERRA-Europe
N outputs:
harvested
crop
Atmosphere
NH3
N inputs:
N fertilizer
BNF,
N deposition
Atmosphere
NH3
N2O NOX N2
Crop production:
- Crop type
- Cropped area
- Management
Animal production:
feed
- Animal species
- Animal number
- Management
manure
NH4+ NO3- DON Npart
N2O NOX N2
NH4+ NO3- DON Npart
Groundwater
& surface waters
N outputs:
milk, meat,
egg
MITERRA-Europe in CCAT tool
Cross compliance
obligations
Costs of
compliance
CAPRI: Market response
1) Changes in cropping
shares
2) Change in livestock
type/number
Changes in
management
MITERRA: emissions to:
1) Water
2) Air
3) Soil
Set of
ND measures
1
1
MITERRA-Europe
5
Per NUTS2 %  in:
#An, crop area
Per NUTS2 %  in:
Nfer, Nam
2
CAPRI-Preprocessor
2
3
Additional cost: € ha-1
CAPRI
Cost due to  N:
€ (kg N ha-1)-1
NO3 le, NH3 em, N2Oem
CH4 em, Nbalance, Pbalance
4
6
Per NUTS2:
- Total costs € ha-1
- Environmental
7
indicators
MITERRA-Europe indicators
• Air:
• NH3 emission
• N2O emission
• CH4 emission
• GHG emission
• Water:
• N leaching
• N (sub-)surface runoff
• NO3 concentration groundwater
Soil:
• Soil carbon stock
• N balance
• P balance
• Metal balance (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni,
Pb, Zn and Hg)
Biodiversity:
• Critical N load exceedance
(terrestrial ecosystems)
• N-concentration in surface water
(aquatic ecosystems)
Nutrient soil balances
N balance EU-27
P balance EU-27
140
35
N leaching
120
Nox emission
NH3 emission
N2O emission
80
Crop uptake
60
N fixation
Deposition
40
Fertilizer
Grazing
20
25
kg P / ha / year
100
kg N / ha / year
30
N2 emission
Accumulation
Crop uptake
20
Deposition
Fertilizer
15
Grazing
10
Manure
5
Manure
0
0
Input
Output
Input
Output
Metal balances EU-27
90
1.6
Accumulation and
leaching
Crop uptake
1.4
70
1.2
Deposition
1.0
Sludge
0.8
Manure
0.6
Fertilizer
0.4
g Cu/ha/year
g Cd/ha/year
80
60
50
40
30
20
0.2
10
0.0
0
Cd input
Cd output
Cu input
Cu output
Comparison MITERRA results
N2O: reported EU-27 to UNFCCC
Miterra-Europe (Tg CO2-eq)
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
5
10
15
20
UNFCCC values (Tg CO2-eq)
25
NH3: EMEP and NEC values
Measures: status/decisions
•
Linkage SMRs/GAECs and proxy CCAT measures
include:
SMRs Nitrates Directive
•
–
–
–
•
8 SMRs evaluated by MITERRA-Europe
3 SMRs evaluated by DNDC
1 SMR evaluated by EPIC.
SMRs Ground Water and Sewage Sludge Directive
–
•
1 measure related to heavy metals evaluated by MITERRAEurope
GAECs (focused on carbon sequestration)
–
–
3 GAECs (crop rotations, cover crops & zero tillage) evaluated
by MITERRA .
2 GAECs (cover crops & zero tillage) evaluated by EPIC and
DNDC.
Clustered Nitrates Directive measures
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Maximum manure N application (170 kg N/ha)
Limitation to N application in winter and wet
periods
Limitation to N application on sloping grounds
Manure storage with minimum risk on leaching
Appropriate application techniques
Buffer zones
Growing winter crops
(Balanced N fertilizer application)
Compliance levels
• Present compliance levels are related to
the base line period 2005-2009. Full
compliance is assumed 100%, unless
impossible, using activities for the year
2005.
• Present compliance levels are based on
investigations within CCAT.
Results environmental assessments with
MITERRA-Europe
Effect of measures
BALF
MaxMan
NOFMWW
LimSlope
AFMAT
BufStrip
GWC
5
Change in emission (%)
0
-5
-10
-15
NH3 emission
-20
N2O emission
N surplus
N leaching
-25
Comparison scenarios
NH3 emission
N2O emission
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
% change 2005 vs zero compl.
% change full versus zero compl.
-6.0%
N balance
N leaching
P balance
NO3 concentration groundwater
baseline
% diff. baseline
vs 0-compl.
N concentration in surface water
baseline
% diff. baseline
vs 0-compl.
N2O emission
baseline
% diff. baseline
vs 0-compl.
NH3 emission
NH3 emission
baseline
% diff. baseline
vs 0-compl.
Critical N load exceedance
Exceedance CL
baseline
% diff. baseline
vs 0-compl.
Metal balances
Cd balance
baseline
% diff. baseline
vs 0-compl.
Soil organic carbon stocks
baseline
abs diff. baseline
vs 0-compl.
Results detailed environmental
assessments with Meta models EPIC
and DNDC
Limitations meta model
assessments
SMRs and GAECs evaluated by Meta models:
• do not include present compliance levels and possible
future implementation levels per country
• are limited to 2 crops only, i.e. maize and barley
• are limited to 2 GAECs, i.e. cover crops and zero tillage
Results thus show:
• a spatially detailed assessment
• for a theoretical situation (zero and full compliance)
• and a limited number of crops
DNDC: No tillage vs Tillage scenario: N2O
EPIC: Cover crop
• Rainfed Maize
• Cover/N fixing crop
(clover)
• Expressed as % change
with regard to baseline
– Erosion
– NO3 leaching
EPIC: No-till
• Barley: no-till
– Erosion
– NO3 leaching
Conclusions
Impacts of CC obligations (SMRs) related to the
Nitrates Directive:
• Impacts are highest on N leaching/runoff
• There is a small positive effect on NH3 emissions, N2O
emissions and carbon sequestration.
• Except for balanced N fertilization, the impacts are
limited (<5%) on N leaching/N concentrations and very
limited (<2%) for N emissions.
• The difference between baseline and zero compliance
(what did we gain) is larger than between full compliance
and baseline (what can still be gained). CC levels for the
Nitrates Directive are already high
Conclusions
• CC obligations (GAECs) may significantly reduce
erosion and to a lesser extent N fluxes
• Cross Compliance impacts are regionally different. In
most regions, there are positive changes in agricultural
emissions. However, a selection of regions experience
negative environmental externalities:
– Soil C (Poland, Southern Portugal),
– Ammonia (Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Alpes-Mediteranée).
• A strict balanced N fertilization can further reduce N
leaching and NH3 emissions and enhance GHG
mitigation