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The Future of Work
In New York State
Work is changing
 Robots and automation
 A networked economy
 Continued productivity increases
 Near-zero marginal cost for goods from
pharmaceuticals to video games to online
college classes has potentially significant
implications for production
 A “sharing economic” poses threats but also
offers opportunities
Implications for
 Job quality
 Who gets which jobs
 Do we all work less, or do some work more and
some not at all?
 Education needed for jobs…and, changing jobs
to take advantage of increased education.
 Income polarization or a broad middle class?
The labor force is changing,
too
 Discussion has often focused on the changing
nature of jobs.
 Let’s look, as well, at the changing labor force.
What can we expect in New York over the next
30 years.
Population is expected to grow,
but with a smaller share in working age
(working age=20-65 years old)
25
70%
Total population
65%
20
60%
61%
Millions
15
58%
Ratio of Working
Age to Total
55%
10
50%
5
actual
45%
projected
0
40%
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
New York State 2010 to 2040 projected change
• Total population: 7%
• 65 and older: 41%
• 70 and older 50%
Population is expected to grow,
but with a smaller share in working age
25
70%
Total population
65%
20
60%
61%
Millions
15
58%
Ratio of Working
Age to Total
55%
10
50%
5
actual
45%
projected
0
40%
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Implications
• Higher productivity needed from a smaller labor force?
• Higher share of working-age people in the labor force?
• Changing idea of “working age?”
Population is expected to grow,
but with a smaller share in working age
25
70%
Total population
65%
20
60%
61%
Millions
15
58%
Ratio of Working
Age to Total
55%
10
50%
5
actual
45%
projected
0
40%
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
What could change the projection?
domestic migration
Immigration
Not much else (fertility rate & longevity change slowly & pretty predictably)
It is hard to imagine change in NYS on the
scale some states have seen
50
If NY grows at the
rate fast-growing
states did over
the past 30 years
45
40
35
Standard
projection
Millions
30
25
20
15
10
actual
5
If NY grows at the
rate fast-growing
states did over
the past 30 years
projected
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Domestic migration and immigration make a big difference. Aging population
does as well.
The five fastest-growing states over the past 30 years more than doubled in
population, something hard to imagine in NYS. The five slowest-growing states
over the past 30 years averaged very close to the actual projection for NYS over
the next 30 years.
It is hard to imagine change in NYS on the
scale some states have seen
50
If NY grows at the
rate fast-growing
states did over
the past 30 years
45
40
35
Standard
projection
Millions
30
25
20
15
10
actual
5
If NY grows at the
rate fast-growing
states did over
the past 30 years
projected
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Still, keep in mind that, as philosophers from Niels Bohr to Yogi
Berra have said:
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
It is hard to imagine change in NYS on the
scale some states have seen
50
If NY grows at the
rate fast-growing
states did over
the past 30 years
45
40
35
Standard
projection
Millions
30
25
20
15
10
actual
5
If NY grows at the
rate fast-growing
states did over
the past 30 years
projected
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Could anything realistically make the fast growth projection
happen?
Climate change repopulating upstate cities, as the coasts
and Southwest become less attractive?
Is the education shortfall in the labor
force…or in the jobs?
College degree
projected
actual
37%
38%
32%
27%
25%
25%
Share of the
labor force with
a BA or higher
19%
Share of jobs
requiring a BA
or higher
1980
1990
2000
2010
2012
2022
We often hear that future workers will need more education to compete. No doubt it’s good
advice to invest in education. But, the jobs that the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects will be in
NYS in 10 years don’t require even as much education as workers already have.
Maybe the focus should be on restructuring jobs so that they make better use of the
education—and potential productivity—of workers?
Is the education shortfall in the labor
force…or in the jobs?
Less than High School
projected
actual
25%
27%
21%
15%
Share of the
labor force with
less than a high
school degree
13%
10%
1980
1990
2000
2010
Share of jobs
requiring less
than a high
school degree
9%
2012
2022
A quarter of jobs in NYS require less than a high school degree…and that number is projected
to grow, not shrink.
How do we improve wages in those jobs, make sure there are career ladders up from them,
and urge on the public, private and nonprofit sectors a different business model so that there
is a better match between the skills of the labor force and the jobs available?
Top 10 fastest growing jobs projected for
NYS
2012 to 2022
1. Home Health Aides
2. Personal Care Aides
3. Food Preparation and Serving Workers
4. Retail Salespersons
5. Waiters and Waitresses
6. Janitors and Cleaners
7. Secretaries and Administrative Assistants
8. Registered Nurses
9. Restaurant Cooks
10. General and Operations Managers
Today 39 percent of NYS workers are people of color.
Among the jobs projected to grow fastest, the share is:
Share
Median Wage
1. Home Health Aides
73%
$21,000
2. Personal Care Aides
59%
$23,000
3. Food Preparation and Serving Workers
53%
$18,000
4. Retail Salespersons
45%
$22,000
5. Waiters and Waitresses
44%
$19,000
6. Janitors and Cleaners
58%
$28,000
7. Secretaries and Administrative Assistants
30%
$37,000
8. Registered Nurses
39%
$75,000
9. Restaurant Cooks
57%
$25,000
10. General and Operations Managers
23%
$120,000
Projected Change in Race/Ethnicity of NYS Population
actual
Other, 11%
projected
Other, 16%
Asian, 7%
Asian, 10%
Black, 16%
Black, 16%
White, 66%
2010
White, 57%
2040
Despite some issues with the definitions here, we can see:
 A growing Asian population
 Black population is about the same size. But note: today, immigrants make up a substantial share
of the state’s black population, coming especially from the Caribbean and Africa. With many
black New Yorkers leaving the state, these immigrants, and their children, are projected to keep
the black population about the same share of the total as it is now.
 Increasing diversity of white population as well, with many immigrants from Eastern Europe.
Projected Change in Race/Ethnicity of NYS Population
actual
9%
91%
1980
12%
projected
15%
18%
21%
25%
29%
Hispanic
88%
1990
85%
2000
Non-Hispanic
82%
79%
75%
71%
2010
2020
2030
2040
 Immigration is very diverse in New York State. Still, the biggest changes in race/ethnic
categories is expected to come from Hispanic immigration and the birth of children to
Hispanic families.
 The families are Dominican, Mexican, Puerto Rican, Colombian…the mix in New York State
includes a wide range of Latinos.
Projected Change in Race/Ethnicity of NYS Population
actual
9%
91%
1980
12%
projected
15%
18%
21%
25%
29%
Hispanic
88%
1990
85%
2000
Non-Hispanic
82%
79%
75%
71%
2010
2020
2030
2040
 If there is a big gap in educational attainment for Hispanics, as well as for African
Americans, the growing Hispanic share of population should make us redouble our efforts
to close these gaps.
 While the black share is not projected to grow, closing the education gap is critical to a
sustainable social, political, and economic environment. Out-migration of African
Americans is no solution.
Projected Change in Race/Ethnicity of NYS Population
actual
9%
91%
1980
12%
projected
15%
18%
21%
25%
29%
Hispanic
88%
1990
85%
2000
Non-Hispanic
82%
79%
75%
71%
2010
2020
2030
2040
 Hispanics and African Americans have considerably lower wages in New York today, even
after adjusting for level of educational attainment. As the non-white share of the
population increases, what will it mean for our economy if we don’t close those gaps, too?
Immigration
There are no current state-based population projections,
but here’s New York State’s history
25
20
Foreign-born
Immigrant share of
population
35%
U.S.-born
30%
30%
25%
Millions
15
23%
21%
20%
15%
10
12%
10%
5
5%
0
0%
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012
Immigrants make up nearly one quarter of the New York State population, rebounding after a
mid-20th century decline to just 12 percent.
Two estimates of immigration at the national level
Census Bureau 2008
Pitkin Myers
Immigration policy is one of the most contentious issues in Washington, making future policy
particularly hard to predict.
Other “push” and “pull” factors will also determine immigration levels—economic and social
conditions in immigrant sending countries and in the United States.
How will immigrants fit into
the New York State
economy?
Three possible scenarios
1) A “Gloves Off” economy
 Continued large numbers of unauthorized immigrants
 Big areas of the labor market that are largely unregulated
How will immigrants fit into
the New York State
economy?
Three possible scenarios
1) A “Gloves Off” economy
2) An official system of a 2nd class labor force
 Guest workers
 Expansion of skilled temporary work (H1-B and related)
 Long pathway to citizenship for some; no pathway for many
 More and more categories of non-citizens, temporary workers
but not citizens
How will immigrants fit into
the New York State
economy?
Three possible scenarios
1) A “Gloves Off” economy
2) An official system of a 2nd class labor force
3) A better regulated labor market
 Few unauthorized immigrants
 Legal flows that respond to labor market demands, plus family
unification and refugee programs
 Maximizing benefits of diversity, wide talent pool, people’s
eagerness to be part of the US
 …while keeping pressure to increase wages, invest in higher
education, invest in technology to increase productivity
How will immigrants fit into
the New York State
economy?
Three possible scenarios
1) A “Gloves Off” economy
2) An official system of a 2nd class labor force
3) Immigration reform and a better regulated labor market
It’s obvious which scenario is preferable, but how do we get there?
Top 1 Percent Share of Income in US and NYS
40%
36%
35%
30%
25%
New York State
24%
24%
20%
15%
10%
United States
10%
5%
1914
1918
1922
1926
1930
1934
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
0%
 The United States is already more polarized than it has been since just before the Great
Depression of the 1930s.
 New York is already by many measures the most economically polarized state in the
country.
 How much more polarization can we sustain?