Transcript Document
Placeholder image borrowed from the web The Future of Work In Pennsylvania This presentation is best viewed on a screen, scrolling through the powerpoint. Printouts will show repetition in slides. Text in the “notes” section helps explain many of the slides. Work is changing Robots and automation A networked economy Continued productivity increases Near-zero marginal cost for goods from pharmaceuticals to video games to online college classes has potentially significant implications for production and wages A “sharing economy” poses both threats and opportunities The degree of public interest in “the future of work” shows an openness to different economic structures that is exciting to engage Implications for Job quality, including wages and working conditions Who gets which jobs Do we all work less, or do some work more and some not at all? Education needed for jobs…and, changing jobs to take advantage of increased education Income polarization or a broad middle class? The labor force is changing, too Discussion has often focused on the changing nature of jobs Let’s look, as well, at the changing labor force. What can we expect in Pennsylvania over the next 30 years? Population is expected to grow, but with a smaller share in working age (working age=20-65 years old) 14 70% 12 Total population 65% 10 Millions 60% 60% 8 Ratio of Working Age to Total 6 55% 55% 50% 4 actual 2 45% projected 0 40% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Pennsylvania 2010 to 2040 projected change: • Total population: 4% • 65 and older: 42% • 70 and older 50% Projections are based a study from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service's Demographics & Workforce Group at the University of Virginia Population is expected to grow, but with a smaller share in working age 14 70% 12 Total population 65% 10 Millions 60% 60% 8 Ratio of Working Age to Total 6 55% 55% 50% 4 actual 2 45% projected 0 40% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Implications • Higher productivity needed from a smaller labor force? • Higher share of working-age people in the labor force? • Changing idea of “working age?” Population is expected to grow, but with a smaller share in working age 14 70% 12 Total population 65% 10 Millions 60% 60% 8 Ratio of Working Age to Total 6 55% 55% 50% 4 actual 2 45% projected 0 40% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 What could change the projection? Domestic migration Immigration Not much else (fertility rate & longevity change slowly & predictably) It is hard to imagine change in PA on the scale some states have seen 35 If PA grows at the rate fast-growing states did over the past 30 years 30 Millions 25 Standard (baseline) projection for PA 20 15 If PA grows at the rate slow-growing states did over the past 30 years 10 actual 5 projected 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Domestic migration and immigration make a big difference. Aging population does as well. The five fastest-growing states over the past 30 years more than doubled in population, something hard to imagine in Pennsylvania. The five slowest-growing states over the past 30 years averaged very close to the projection for PA over the next 30 years. It is hard to imagine change in PA on the scale some states have seen 35 If PA grows at the rate fast-growing states did over the past 30 years 30 Millions 25 Standard projection 20 15 If PA grows at the rate fast-growing states did over the past 30 years 10 actual 5 projected 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Still, keep in mind that, as philosophers from Niels Bohr to Yogi Berra have said: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” It is hard to imagine change in PA on the scale some states have seen 35 If PA grows at the rate fast-growing states did over the past 30 years 30 Millions 25 Standard projection 20 15 If PA grows at the rate fast-growing states did over the past 30 years 10 actual 5 projected 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Could anything realistically make the fast growth projection happen? Climate change repopulating upstate cities, as the coasts and Southwest become less attractive? Is the education shortfall in the labor force…or in the jobs? College degree actual projected We often hear that future workers will need more education to compete. No doubt it’s good advice to invest in education. But, the jobs that the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects will be in Pennsylvania in 10 years don’t require even as much education as workers already have. Maybe the focus should be on restructuring jobs so that they make better use of the education—and potential productivity—of workers? Is the education shortfall in the labor force…or in the jobs? Less than High School actual projected 27% 27% Share of the labor force with less than a high school degree 23% 14% 10% 1980 1990 2000 8% 2010 Share of jobs requiring less than a high school degree 7% 2012 2022 A quarter of jobs in Pennsylvania require less than a high school degree…and that number is note projected to shrink How do we improve wages in those jobs, make sure there are career ladders up from them, and urge on the public, private and nonprofit sectors a “good jobs” business model so that there is a better match between the skills of the labor force and the jobs available? Top 10 fastest growing jobs projected for Pennsylvania 2012 to 2022 1. Registered Nurses 2. Home Health Aides 3. Personal Care Aides 4. Food Preparation and Serving Workers (incl. Fast Food) 5. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 6. Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 7. Secretaries and Administrative Assistants (except legal, medical, and executive) 8. Carpenters 9. Customer Service Representatives 10. Nursing Assistants Projected Change in Race/Ethnicity of PA Population actual Other, 4% Asian, 3% Black, 11% projected Other, 8% Asian, 5% Black, 12% White, 82% 2010 White, 75% 2040 Despite some issues with the definitions here, we can see: A growing Asian population Black population is about the same size A shrinking white population All races includes increasing numbers of Hispanic immigrants Projected Change in Race/Ethnicity of PA Population actual 2% 1% 99% 1980 98% 1990 projected 3% 6% 7% 97% 94% 93% 91% 89% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 9% 11% Hispanic Non-Hispanic The biggest changes in race/ethnic categories is expected to come from Hispanic immigration and the birth of children to Hispanic families Projected Change in Race/Ethnicity of PA Population actual 2% 1% 99% 1980 98% 1990 projected 3% 6% 7% 97% 94% 93% 91% 89% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 9% 11% Hispanic Non-Hispanic If there is a big gap in educational attainment for Hispanics, the growing Hispanic share of population should make us redouble our efforts to close these gaps While the black population share is not projected to grow substantially, closing the education gap is critical to a sustainable social, political, and economic environment Projected Change in Race/Ethnicity of PA Population actual 2% 1% 99% 1980 98% 1990 projected 3% 6% 7% 97% 94% 93% 91% 89% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 9% 11% Hispanic Non-Hispanic Hispanics and African Americans have considerably lower wages in Pennsylvania today, even after adjusting for level of educational attainment. As the non-white share of the population increases, what will it mean for our economy if we don’t close those gaps, too? Immigration in Pennsylvania There are no current state-based population projections, but here’s Pennsylvania’s long-term history 14 12 20% Immigrant share of population 10 16% 14% 12% 8 Population in Millions 18% 6 10% Foreignborn 8% U.S.-born 6% 4 4% 2 2% 0 0% 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013 Immigrants make up six percent of Pennsylvania’s population, a little up from the 1990 lowpoint of three percent. Note that recent growth in Pennsylvania’s population is due almost entirely to immigrants. In the United States as a whole, immigrants made up 13 percent of the population in 2013 Two estimates of immigration at the national level Census Bureau 2008 Pitkin Myers Immigration policy is one of the most contentious issues in Washington, making future policy particularly hard to predict Other “push” and “pull” factors will also determine immigration levels—economic and social conditions in immigrant sending countries and in the United States How will immigrants fit into the Pennsylvania economy? Three possible scenarios 1) A “Gloves Off” economy Continued large numbers of unauthorized immigrants Big areas of the labor market that are largely unregulated How will immigrants fit into the Pennsylvania economy? Three possible scenarios 1) A “Gloves Off” economy 2) An official system of a 2nd class labor force Guest workers Expansion of skilled temporary work (H1-B and related) Long pathway to citizenship for some; no pathway for many More and more categories of non-citizens, temporary workers but not citizens How will immigrants fit into the Pennsylvania economy? Three possible scenarios 1) A “Gloves Off” economy 2) An official system of a 2nd class labor force 3) A better regulated labor market Few unauthorized immigrants Legal flows that respond to labor market demands, plus family unification and refugee programs Maximizing benefits of diversity, wide talent pool, people’s eagerness to be part of the US …while keeping pressure to increase wages, invest in higher education, invest in technology to increase productivity How will immigrants fit into the Pennsylvania economy? Three possible scenarios 1) A “Gloves Off” economy 2) An official system of a 2nd class labor force 3) Immigration reform and a better regulated labor market It’s obvious which scenario is preferable, but how do we get there? Top 1 Percent Share of Income in US 40% 35% 30% 25% 1929 24% 2006 24% 20% 15% 10% United States 5% 1914 1918 1922 1926 1930 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 0% The United States is already more polarized than it has been since just before the Great Depression of the 1930s How much more polarization can we sustain? What is the future of work? An opportunity to think differently • Changes in the nature of work give us the opportunity to think differently about growth • Policies and practices we put in place today can help shift how the future looks What new technologies and business models mean for workers depends on us • The future economy can be more equitable than the current one. But, we will have to make conscious choices to continually push in that direction. Otherwise, current inequities may be carried into the future or even exacerbated. • New technologies that allow for less work can give us a chance to work less and share work more evenly, while also accommodating a lower share of the population that is in working age. • We can look for ways to build career ladders, put people’s increasing levels of education to productive use, and make sure that the sharing economy does not mean a race to the bottom for wages and working conditions, but instead means an increased opportunity to earn a decent living.