Transcript A Conceptual Systemic Framework Proposal for Sustainable

A Conceptual Systemic Framework Proposal for
Sustainable Technology Development:
Incorporating Future Studies within a
Co-Evolutionary Approach
by
A. İdil Gaziulusoy, Ph.D. Candidate
Co-author
Dr. Carol Boyle
The University of Auckland
International Centre for
Sustainability Engineering and Research
FEBRUARY 2007
Introduction
SUSTAINABILITY
Global Meta-System
ENVIRONMENT
SOCIETY
WHAT?
conceptual priority: society
operational priority: environment
ECONOMY
WHEN?
long-term planning
as operational context widens the
length of time increases
Sustainability is a “moving target” (Hjorth & Bagheri, 2006).
GAZIULUSOY
February 2007
Introduction
TEMPORAL-SPATIAL FRAME
Size of the Operational Context
global
Influence path
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Operational Context N
X
Operational Context 3
Operational Context 2
Operational Context 1
Feed-back path
local
present
future
Time
GAZIULUSOY
February 2007
Introduction
COMPLEXITY
Frog Science
versus
Bicycle Science
“A crucial assumption of reductionism” is that we can
break complex systems into parts and study these in
isolation (Linstone, 1999).
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February 2007
CO-EVOLUTION
Introduction
Environment
ecosystems
Society
Economy
technology
market
operations
animals
companies
industry
COMPLEX
ADAPTIVE
SYSTEMS
humans
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February 2007
EXTENT:RADICAL
Sustainable
Technology
Development
“Solutions are needed that break existing trends in current
development processes.” (Weaver, Jansen, van Grootveld, van
Spiegel, & Vergragt, 2000)
Present
technological
paradigm
GAZIULUSOY
New
technological
paradigm
February 2007
CONTEXT:CO-EVOLVING
Sustainable
Technology
Development
society
economy
Technological Paradigm
technology
GAZIULUSOY
February 2007
CONTEXT:CO-EVOLVING
Sustainable
Technology
Development
Regulatory
push/pull
Technology
push
Environmental
Innovations
Cleff & Rennings (1999); Rennings (2000)
GAZIULUSOY
Market
pull
February 2007
CONTEXT:CO-EVOLVING
Environment
Society
Technology
Economy
Sustainable
Technology
Development
“Successful action depends on
a combination of advances in
scientific understanding,
appropriate political
programmes, social reforms
and other institutional
changes, as well as on the
scale and direction of new
investment. Organisational
and social innovations would
always have to accompany
any technical innovations and
some would have to come
first” (Freeman, 1992)
GOVERNANCE
GAZIULUSOY
February 2007
Incorporating Future Studies
RELEVANCE
Planning for sustainable technology development should:
•Have a long-term coverage;
•Be able to address complexity;
•Be able to deal with co-evolutionary change both as a
result and as a cause;
•Should allow continuous feedback, reassessment and
adjustment to cope with dynamic characteristics and
changing requirements of sustainability concept; and
•Provide creative vision to guide the innovation path
towards radical change.
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February 2007
Incorporating Future Studies
RELEVANCE
Technology Development
Engineering
Future Studies
STD
Sustainability
Engineering
GAZIULUSOY
Sustainable
Development
Sustainability
Science
February 2007
Incorporating Future Studies
BACKCASTING AS A META-TOOL
Present
Incremental
improvement # ?
Backcasting STEP # 2
Planning STEP # 1
Incremental
improvement # 3
Milestone # 1
Milestone # 2
Milestone # 3
Milestone # N
Future
?
SUSTAINABILITY
FORECASTING
BACKCASTING
GAZIULUSOY
Radical Change
Incremental
improvement # 2
Incremental Change
Incremental
improvement # 1
Present
Future
Foresighting
STEP # 1
February 2007
Incorporating Future Studies
BACKCASTING AS A META-TOOL
Backcasting is useful:
• when the problem to be studied is complex;
• many sectors and levels of society are involved;
• when there is a need for major change since
dominant trends are part of the problem; and
• when the time horizon is long enough to allow
considerable scope for deliberate choice (Dreborg,
1996)
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February 2007
Incorporating Future Studies
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Size of the Operational Context
country
global
Influence path
X
X
X
X
X
X
Operational Context N
Policy
development
X
Institutional
innovations
X
X
Social/cultural
Operational Context
3
innovations
X
X
Operational
Context 2
Organisational
innovations
X X
Operational Context 1
Technological
Feed-back path
innovations
X
sector/
local
company
present
future
Time
GAZIULUSOY
February 2007
Incorporating Future Studies
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Environment
Society
Technology
Economy
Socio-Economic Domain
Socio-Technical Domain
GOVERNANCE
(Socio-)Techno-Economic Domain
“INDUSTRY”
GAZIULUSOY
February 2007
Incorporating Future Studies
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Institutional
and Social
Innovations
Policy/Legislation
Public Awareness
Stakeholder
Demand
New Values
New Capabilities
New Competencies
Technological
Innovations
Organisational
Innovations
Company Vision
Competitiveness
Shareholder
Values
INDUSTRY
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February 2007
CONCLUSION
• Shift in the technological paradigm is needed;
• Incorporating future studies into technology planning can facilitate
this shift;
• When planning for technologies co-evolutionary aspects of
innovation should be considered;
• Backcasting is promising as a normative and analytical meta-tool for
planning within a co-evolutionary approach;
• In a backcastıng exercise policy development should cover the
longest time span to overlook and link institutional, social/cultural,
organisational and technological innovations.
GAZIULUSOY
February 2007