Transcript 3d Zimmermann - Foresight for the European Research Area

The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic
Transformations towards Sustainable Mobility
– The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
Martin Zimmermann, Johannes Warth,
Heiko von der Gracht, Inga-Lena Darkow
Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management
EBS Business School, Wiesbaden, Germany
Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
1
Motivation & Objective
2
Backcasting
3
Combination of Delphi, Scenario Planning and Backcasting
4
Delphi-based 4-step Backcasting
5
Methodological Discussion
6
Limitations & Further Research
2
Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
Motivation & Objective
Motivation
 Radical systemic changes to current systems of mobility necessary to achieve sustainable development
(Nykvist & Whitmarsh, 2008)
 German government to establish up to 1 million electric vehicles on the streets until 2020 and over 5
million vehicles until 2030 (Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development, 2009)
 Combinations of technological, cultural, societal, institutional, and organizational changes
required for such transformations (Quist & Vergragt, 2006)
 Approach for achieving transitions towards a sustainable future is backcasting (Dreborg, 1996)
Objective
 Demonstration of an innovative qualitative backcasting approach (Delphi & Semi-structured
interviews) to analyze transformations to sustainable mobility / facilitate future-oriented decision making
 Advantages of combining these two methods will be highlighted and critically reflected
 Usage of Backcasting as best practice for Competitiveness Monitor (CoMo) research project
The content of this presentation is based on the joint research project “Competitiveness Monitor”,
funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (project reference number:
01IC10L18 A). Project duration: 06/2010 – 05/2013. Responsibility for the content is with the author(s).
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Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
Backcasting
2030
Desired Future
Present
Probable Future
Plausibility Check
= Drivers
= Obstacles
= Overall Trends
Dreborg (1996): Backcasting
 complex and persistent problems are in focus,
particularly useful when…
 dominant trends are part of the problem,
 external factors are present,
 the need for major change exists,
 the time frame and thematic focus allow for radical changes.
4
Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
Combination of Delphi, Scenario Planning and
Backcasting
Delphi
Development
of projections
Evaluation of
projections
(von der Gracht & Darkow, 2010)
Generic Scenario
Planning
(Bishop et al, 2007;
Shermack et al., 2001)
Backcasting
(Quist, 2007)
• Scenario
Writing
• Development
of Factors
Scenario Transfer
Scenario Development
Strategic
Problem
Orientation
Develop
future vision
Expert Check
Backcasting
analysis
Elaborate
future
alternative &
define followup agenda
Embed
results and
agenda &
stimulate
follow-up
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Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
Delphi-based 4-step Backcasting
2 Development of future images and influencing factors
1
Development of a
Desirable Scenario
Strategic problem orientation
Strategic problem
orientation
Development of 20 projections
according to STEP
Structured desk research /
Expert workshops
Scenario development
technique
Execution of a
RealTime Delphi Survey
Development of
9 main influential factors
Coding of Delphi arguments
3
Development of measures
Backcasting – Assessing the way
towards the desirable scenario
Semi-structured interviews
4
Systematic identification of „hot topics“/patterns
Descriptive Coding / „Grounded
Coding“ approach
Pattern coding
Continuation
Follow-up activities
Workshops, lectures, CoMo, etc.
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Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
1 Strategic problem orientation
Strategic Problem Orientation
 Identification of fundamental research issues to be addressed
 Several stakeholder workshops with participants from OEMs, suppliers, government, academics
 Enrichment of findings of the workshop by comprehensive desk research activities
 Focus on German government’s plans:
 Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions until 2020 by 40%, compared to 1990 (Federal
Ministry of Economics and Technology, 2007)
 Key pillar: Strengthening e-mobility until 2030
Development of future projections
 STEP analysis (social, technological, economical and political factors)
 In-depth analysis of a sample of academic studies and governmental-related reports
 Future workshop with 11 business and six academic experts
 Formulation of 20 projections in short, descriptive and provoking propositions
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Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
2 Development of future images and influencing factors
Characteristics of Delphi
Online-based, real-time Delphi tool
 Group communication
process (Linstone & Turoff, 1975)
 Based on expert knowledge
 Anonymous survey process
 Feedback after each round
 Statistical & qualitative
analysis
 Consensus seeking
 Results represent adequate
substitute for lack of empirical
data (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963)
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Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
2 Development of future images and influencing factors
Market research 2%
Journalists 4%
 Participation of 140
Ve
rb
Dealers 4%
Environmental organisations 4%
we
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 Response rate of 31% (of
un
ge
n
Fleet operators 2%
OE
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M
he
Ha
nd
ol
/ P
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n
Consultancies 9%
i tk
Energy suppliers 4%
In
Associations 5%
In
Ha
Alternative Views 4%
o
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uk
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n
from 15 different groups
Jo
 Diverse sample of experts
Politics 5%
Infrastructure 2%
experts
441 invitations)
OEMs 17%
Institutes / Universities 16%
Un
Delphi Participants
Automotive suppliers 19%
En
He
Energy mix for vehicle operation
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 Coding of more than 2,000 qualitative
nb
Identification of influencing factors
Germany's competitiveness
arguments in order to identify the
influencing factors
 Identification of nine main factors
Comodal mobility
Changing market structure
Technological maturity
Government intervention
 Expert check for validation
Infrastructural conditions
Raw material supply
Customer preferences
9
Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
2 Development of future images and influencing factors
Desirable Scenario 2030: Electric Mobility’s Dominance
10
Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
2 Development of future images and influencing factors
Desirable Scenario 2030: Electric Mobility’s Dominance
 Electric drives (especially battery-electric vehicles, range extender and plug-in hybrids) dominate the
number of new registrations in Germany.
 Conventional power trains cannot keep up with electrical drives with regard to essential performance
indicators.
 The success of electric vehicles was supported by three key developments:
 (1) the increased willingness of customers to pay more for these drive systems,
 (2) a large part of energy obtained for new drive concepts originates from renewable
sources
 (3) the comprehensive provision of efficient and cheap charging facilities for electric drives
 In the segments of medium and light commercial vehicles partially or fully electric drives are standard.
 The market for new drive concepts is dominated by manufacturers from Europe and Asia alike.
 In this case the raw material supply does not constitute a bottleneck in the dissemination of new
drive concepts.
 Customers mainly use an optimally coordinated network of comodal mobility services.
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Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
3 Development of measures
Main goals
 Identification of measures that need to be taken in order to realize the desirable scenario
 Identification of actors that need to become active in order to make the change happen
 Determination of the timeliness of the different measures
Associations 7%
Consultancies 2%
Process
 43 interviews with
experts proceeding from
15 Delphi interest groups
 Alignment of the
interview sample’s
distribution
 Descriptive / Pattern
Coding with Nvivo
Software
Alternative Views 9%
A l t er nat i ve A nsi cht en
A ut omobi l zul i ef er er
Environmental organisations 7%
Politics 2%
Automotive
suppliers 7%
Her st el l er E l ekt r of ahr zeuge
E ner gi ever sor ger
Fl ot t enbet r ei ber
Manufacturers
electric vehicles 5%
Handel
I nf r ast r ukt ur
Energy
suppliers 7%
I nst i t ut e / Uni ver si t ät en
Jour nal i st en
M ar kt f or schung
OEMs 19%
M
FleetOEoperators
7%
Öf f ent l i che Hand / P ol i t k
Umwel t or gani sat i onen
Market research 2%
Journalists 5%
Dealers 5%
Unt er nehmensber at ungen
Infrastructure 5%
V er bände
Institutes / Universities 12%
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Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
3 Development of measures
Selected discussed topics
 Incentivisation for customers vs. industry (R&D) support
 Role of established vs. new companies / co-operations
 Role of comodal mobility for electric mobility scenario
4 Continuation
Process
 Follow-up of backcasting exercises very important to actually use and implement the content that has
been generated (Quist & Vergragt, 2006)
 Multiple workshops with stakeholders from the automotive industry
 Contribution to the joint research project “Competitiveness Monitor” (CoMo) within the
EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
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Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
Methodological Discussion
 So far, (qualitative) participatory backcasting approaches mostly executed with the help of
workshops and focus group discussions (Carlsson-Kanyama, 2011; Dreborg, Moll, & Padovan, 2008; Kok et al., 2006;
Svenfelt et al., 2011).
 Aim of our backcasting exercise: Inclusion of a diverse group of stakeholders not only in the
development of the scenarios, but also in the backcasting step itself.
 Combination of an innovative Delphi survey with individual semi-structured expert interviews and
following structured coding
 By using the web-based real-time Delphi approach we were able to invite a broad number of
participants (140) to the study which enabled us to reach experts from 15 different user groups.
 Our approach enables us to both include a large number of different stakeholders and still having a
structured and comprehensible process (coding) of how the results are analysed and further used
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Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
Limitations & Further Research
Limitations
 Broad range of opinions in both Delphi and interviews step did not allow for a consensus in all cases e.g.
when developing the scenarios or elaborating on the measures
 Difficulties in elaborating on timeliness of single measures due to variety of topics discussed
Further Research
 Optimisation of structured stakeholder inclusion in 3rd step (backcasting)
 Combination of several Delphis for 1) scenario creation and 2) backcasting analysis
 Recruitment of “opposing party” discussion panels based on Delphi data
 Expert vs. non-expert validation of scenarios etc.
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Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
Thank you!
Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management
EBS Business School
Soehnleinstr. 8 F
D-65201 Wiesbaden / Germany
Tel. +49 611 7102 2100
Fax +49 611 360 18 802
Email [email protected]
www.ebs.edu/futurestudies
16
Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
Backup
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Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
Methodological Lead
Center for Futures Studies. Shaping the future together!
Mission
• To pursue scientifically-established research in Futures
Studies and manage its quality
• To generate futures knowledge to support decision-making
processes on governmental, economic and scientific issues
• To establish Futures Studies research as an academic
discipline / strategic instrument in business practice
Key Aspects
• Scenario and Delphi Analyses
• Roadmapping & Backcasting
• Early Warning and Risk
Management
Center for Futures Studies
Research and Knowledge
Management Research
Create the future together
• Wildcard Analyses
• Futures Studies Workshops
Achievements
• Contract research with business partners
(futures studies, tool development)
• Scenario transfer: turn research results into
strategy
• Collaborate in public sector research projects
• High diversity in team (mix of expertise)
• Methodical and professional competence
Network
• Method Integration
(Scenario-Toolbox)
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
• Part of EBS Network with 180 partner universities and 200 business partners
worldwide
• Anchored in the Foresight-Community: Network for Future Studies Research,
European Foresight Network, World Future Society, Oxford Scenario Network,
EIRAC
• Present in emerging markets (Russia, India and China)
• www.ebs.edu/smi/futurestudies.html
Timeframe
Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
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