Transcript Gaidis

Assessment of Regional Employment
Effects of RES Integration
in the Energy Sector of Latvia
.
Ivars Kudrenickis,
Department of Environmental Management,
Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Latvia
Gaidis Klavs,
Institute of Physical Energetics, Latvia
International Conference
“NEW SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHALLENGES OF DEVELOPMENT
IN EUROPE 2008
Labour Market Issues”
Riga, University of Latvia, 2-4 October 2008
Plan of presentation
I: Renewable energy in Latvia energy supply
II: Assessment of employment creation effect: the
challenges
III: The structure of production chain analysis
(PCA) model
IV: Employment assessment by PCA: overall
results for Latvia and their regionalisation
Part I: Renewable energy in
Latvia energy supply
Primary energy supply in Latvia (2000-2007)
PJ
%
100
200
90
electricity
80
160
70
60
120
biomas
natural gas
50
80
40
29,5
30,2
29,1
29
31,4
31,3
29,2
28
oil products
30
coal & peat
20
40
10
0
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
renewables
RES in electricity and DHS supply in Latvia
RES-E share in total supply
%
70
RES-DH share
68,2
65
60
55
50
45
40
52,8
47,1
45,5
46,7
47,7
48,4
46,1
47,1
44,7
43,9
39,2
35
35,1
36,5
37,7
31,9
30
29,3
33,2
25
20
15
12,4
8
10
5
14,6
11,3
0,7
1,2
1,8
3,1
4,8
11,6
8,9
11,4
11,7
12,5
14,2
13,8 14,8
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Structure of RES-E supply in Latvia
(2006)
1%
2%
3%
95 %
2%
Large HPP
Small HPP
Wind
Biogas+biomas
Part II: Assessment of
Employment Creation Effect: the
challenges
Background statement
Energy supply systems based on RES
compared to fossil energy systems are more
labour intensive in delivering the same
energy output
Crucial differences among various RES
technologies exist: employment in bioenergy
projects is significantly different than that of
the wind, hydro and solar energy projects.
MITRE PROJECT, 2003
Advanced renewable energy policy in 2020:
 16% (262 Mtoe) of primary energy,
 27.6% (963 TWh) of electricity supply,
 7.8% (22 Mtoe) of transport fuels supply
Implementation of advanced renewable energy
policy may reach 2.4 million new workplaces
in old EU member states
General principles of workplaces
assessment
direct and indirect (induced) workplaces,
 taking into consideration the complementary
principle,
 short-term workplaces (e.g., construction of
plant) are generally related to technical life
time of the production unit

Possible approach –
use of standard factors
To assess the employment effect, the specific
number of direct workplaces, related to the
construction and operation of the energy
production unit, is associated with so called
standard factors, like:
 1 MW of installed capacity,
 100 GWh of annually produced electricity,
 1 million units of investments
Job places per 100 GWh annually
produced electricity
Fossil technologies
Wind
1-6
15-20
Solar PV
Solar thermal
Small hydro
Biomass, forestry waste
50-54
25-27
8-9
18-19
Biomass, energy plantations
Biogas, agriculture waste
Source: R.E.H.Sims, “Biomass and Agriculture: Sustainability, Markets and Policies”,
OECD Publication, Paris, September 2004, pp.91-103
64
58
Weak point of applying standard
factors
Applying the country non-specific standard
factors does not take into account regional or
local conditions.
 Evidently, the standard factors depend on the
cost structure of a given country and vary
from country to country, and might even vary
from region to region.

Part III: The structure of production
chain analysis (PCA) model
Production chain analysis model
Facility
cost
Estimation of the wages part of the value chain
Technology
value chain
OM
cost
All
costs
RE
energy
Income of
= Fuel cost at
the supplier the facility
Wages
Equipment
Enduser
O&M
value chain
Localization of the employment
Employment
80%
30%
Fuel
cost
Total
and
per
unit
Local
regional
Nacional
Transnational
Fuel
value chain
20%
70%
Source:
Tyge Kjær,Roskilde University
Production chain analysis
The Background
Identifying of the wages share in the value
chain of a given energy production
installation
Three Different Starting Points
of PCA Model
(i) potential of RES,
(ii) capacity of energy production unit that will
be installed, or
(iii) demand for energy.
Production Chain Assessment Methodology
Example: Biomass CHPs, steam turbines,
Efficiency
Electricity 25%
Total 85%
Target for electricity production, GWh/year
Annual operating hours
Total electricity capacity (calculated), MWel
280
5600
50
Specific investments, mill.EUR / 1MW
Technical lifetime, years
Operation & Maintenance costs (% of investments per year)
Biomass fuel cost, EUR/GJ
5.7
20
4
3.1
Wages share of total investments
(comprising Latvian local share)
8%
(20%)
Wages share of O&M costs
(comprising Latvian local share)
50%
(80%)
Wages share of fuel costs
(comprising Latvian local share)
45%
(100%)
Part IV: Employment assessment by
PCA: overall results for Latvia and their
regionalisation
New capacities assessed

Wind: onland 225 MW
Biomass (Wood) CHP - 100 MWel

Biogas – 36 MWel
Resulting in:
+ 1300 GWh RES-electricity annually
Employment Effect of Renewable Electricity
Production (1)
Onshore
Wind
Total new electricity capacity,
MWel
225
Solid Biomass
small scale CHP
Steam
turbine
Gasifiers
Biogas
CHP
50
50
36
Part A. Workplaces assessed without taking into account the
complementary principle
Investment related workplaces
14.7
13.3
12.5
9.6
O&M related workplaces
147.4
266.7
364.9
374.4
328.9
274
51.4
608.9
651.4
435.4
Biomass fuel supply
related workplaces
Total
162.1
Employment Effect of Renewable Electricity
Production (2)
Onshore
Wind
Total new electricity capacity,
MWel
225
Solid Biomass
small scale CHP
Steam
turbine
Gasifiers
Biogas
CHP
50
50
36
Part B. Workplaces assessed taking into account the complementary
principle
Investment related workplaces
14.7
13.3
12.5
9.6
O&M related workplaces
147.4
200
273.7
374.4
164.5
137
51.4
378
423
435
Biomass fuel supply
related workplaces
Total
162
Employment Effect of Renewable Electricity
Production and related tax revenues
Tax
revenues
in state
social
budget
(thsd EUR)
Tax
revenues –
income tax
(thsd EUR)
New
capacities
(MW)
New
direct
jobs
New
indirect
jobs
TOTAL
361
1398
2097
18 677
8218
Wind
225
162
243
2164
952
Solid
Biomass
(Wood) CHP
100
801
1202
10 704
4710
Biogas CHP
36
453
652
5809
2556
Assumptions for distribution of
workplaces among Latvia regions
Direct workplaces:
wind – according recommendation to establish zones for the
location of wind power plants,
solid biomass CHP - close to current consumption of wood fuel
in district heating and industry sector.
biogas CHP – comparatively similar, except Latgale (taking
into account unutilised agriculture land)
1.
2. Indirect workplaces:
Taking into account dominating role of the Riga in national
economy, it is assumed that 50% of indirect workplaces
will be created in regions, but the others in Riga and its
surroundings (Riga planning region).
Distribution of Employment Effect
among Latvia planning regions
11
7
46
19
17
Riga
Kurzeme
Vidzeme
Zemgale
Latgale
Thank You !
Gaidis Klāvs: [email protected]
Ivars Kudreņickis: [email protected]