The Republican Primaries

Office Hours • • When – Today- 11-2 – Wednesday 10-2 Doyle 226B

Learning Outcomes • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

Rules of the Nominating Game Just Like Vegas, Never play a game you don’t know how to play

Rules of the Game: Frontloading • The movement of state primaries and caucuses earlier and earlier in the campaign season • The Impact of Frontloading

Why early wins are important • Money goes to winners • Media Coverage goes to winners

Be the last person standing • Build upon early wins • Force your opponents to drop out

John McCain and the Republicans

THE LESSONS OF 2008

Delegate Apportionment in 2008 •

The Democrats

More Delegates •

The Republicans

Fewer Delegates • Proportional Representation • More winner-take-all states • Super Delegates

• The Advantage of the Long Democratic Campaign for Obama Scrutiny • Kept him in the News • Tested his leadership • Made the party enthusiastic

How Mc Cain Wins Early: 2008 • Winner-take-all states • The Early win is A blessing and a curse for McCain

Benefits of the Early McCain Victory • Cost savings • Refocus Campaign Strategy • Avoids additional party infighting

Costs of the McCain victory • Never shores up the Evangelicals • Too reliant on unreliable independents • Out of the news for 5 months

THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Obama Wins!

• No serious challenger • He could focus on being President • He didn’t have to spend money

THE 2012 REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

Frontloading and 2012 • Take a Page from the Democratic Playbook • The GOP require more states use proportional representation • Punish early movers • They did not want an early nominee.

Advantages And Disadvantages of a Long Primary

Advantage Disadvantage

Frontloading and 2012

The First Four in 2012 • Iowa • New Hampshire • South Carolina • Florida

These Rules Were Intended to Extend the Nomination, which it did…. But it also brought unintended consequences!

IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE

Frontloading: Iowa and NH • Traditionally the first caucus and primary • Both states have resisted changing their dates • States were punished for moving up too close

Frontloading: NH and IA • Not essential, but helpful for victory • Criticisms of these states

Iowa: The Results

Iowa part II • The Original Results • Romney Does better than expected

Perry Falters • Broke • 5 th place • Doesn’t know what to do

Romney Has Momentum • Looking like a winner and Actually winning • Media coverage goes to those who can win.

• Moves to New Hampshire

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire Results • Romney wins easily • Huntsman drops out • Ron Paul comes in 3 rd • Santorum didn’t campaign hard there

Florida and South Carolina

THE SOUTH

South Carolina

South Carolina • The Return of Newt Gingrich • The End of Rick Perry • A state where Romney has never done well

Romney after South Carolina • A Wasp Funeral • Go After Gingrich….Hard

• Paint Gingrich as a corrupt insider

• Winner-Take-All Florida • Romney wins an Important Battleground State

SUPER TUESDAY

• 10 States What Was at Stake • More than 400 Delegates • 21 states and 800+ delegates in 2008

Romney is in Trouble • All negative campaign • Outspending opponents • His message was wearing thin • Likeability Problem

The Return of Santorum • Hard Work • Culture War • Still a flawed Candidate (he always took the bait)

Not the Game Changer

This in 2008 To This in 2012

• Romney wins 6 • Santorum wins 3 • Gingrich wins 1 • Ron Paul will never quit

The Delegate Count

Super Tuesday

The End of the Line

WHY ROMNEY WON

For Newt and Rick • I probably will not be the candidate • Does beating up Romney serve any purpose?

The End • Santorum is Done on April 10 • Gingrich on May 2 nd • Ron Paul Finally quits on May 22 • Romney Clinches on June 5th

Its over

Why Romney Won • It was built to last through superior funding • Essentially error free • Lack of infighting and scandal • Followed the Atwater Rule