Transcript The 2008 Presidential Elections: How Iowa, New Hampshire

Presidential
Primaries:
pt 2
Themes
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What makes a frontrunner (before any
votes cast)?
Where do media expectations come from?
Why so much volatility in GOP polls
How it works in 2012
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About 2286 delegates at stake (R)
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An odd sequence of events:
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IA (1/3), NH (1/10), SC (1/21), Fl (1/31), NV (2/4), ME
(2/4*), CO & MN (2/7), AZ & MI (2/28), WA (3/3); 10 states
on 3/10, etc.
Proportional allocation of delegates if before 4/1
Results from first event have consequences for
subsequent events
How it worked in 2008
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About 4200 delegates at stake (D)
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An odd sequence of events:
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IA (1/3), NH (1/8), MI (1/15), NV (1/19), SC (1/26), Fl
(1/29), 23 states on 2/5/2008
WA on 2/9 (w/ 2 other states)
2012 Nomination Schedule (R)
State
IA
NH
SC
NV
FL
ME
CO & MN
AZ & MI
WA (3/3)
March 6
# delegates
28
12*
25*
28
50*
24
76
59*
43
438
% of total
1.21%
0.52%
1.09%
1.22%
2.18%
1.05%
3.32%
2.58%
1.88%
19.20%
34% of delegates awarded by March 6 2012
2012 GOP Nomination
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Super Tuesday less super
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AK, GA, ID, MA, ND, OH, OK, TN, VT, VA
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Which candidate advantaged?
PR until April 1
Harder for frontrunner to deliver ‘knockout’
blow
2008 Nomination Schedule (D)
State
IA
NV
NH
SC
FL (1/29)
23 states on 2/5
WA on 2/9
LA, NE, VI (2/9)
# delegates
45
25
22
45
185
2075
97
110
% of total
1.07%
.59%
.52%
1.07%
4.40%
51.36%
2.31%
2.72%
61% of delegates awarded by Feb 10 2008
Primary campaigns
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Concentrate resources on early states
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Visits, spending, ads
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Hope for momentum; force others out early
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See NYT map
How it works
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Frontloading
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Early wins for frontrunner
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Momentum & inevitability or....
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no clear winner
Party Establishment advantage
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IA, NH, done by Super Tuesday
PLEOs, endorsements (168 GOP PLEOs, 7%)
Funding
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Most money = winner
How it was supposed to work ‘08
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2008 frontrunners
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H. R. Clinton
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led national polls Oct 06 Feb 08
led IA polls Aug - Dec 07
Giuliani
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Led national polls 2007
Romney led in IA
McCain never more than
20% until Jan 13 2008
How it was supposed to work ‘12
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2012 frontrunner?
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Trump (26% April ‘11)
Romney (25% June )
Bachman (27% IA Aug)
Perry (32% Sept)
Cain (26% Oct.)
Gingrich (35% Dec.)
Paul (25% IA Dec.)
Romney (26% today)
Iowa 2012
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Romney
Santorum
Paul
Gingrich
Perry
Bachman
Huntsman
24.5
24.5
21.4
13.3
10.3
5.0
0.6
What Influence of Iowa & NH?
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Since Carter (1976)
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More visits to IA
More time in IA
More spending in IA
More media in IA
same w/ NH
Greater importance of IA?
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2011 Straw poll
2007 Straw poll
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Sam Brownback, Tommy
Thompson, Huckabee
Dan Quayle 1999
Why Iowa & New Hampshire
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Why do these states go first?
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National party rule, tradition, stupidity
Why do so many candidates spend so
much time there?
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Momentum, momentum, momentum
Remember this guy?
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Frontrunner in national
polls 2003
Moved to New
Hampshire
81% name ID
2nd place in early NH
polls
Ignored Iowa
Remember this guy?
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Frontrunner in national
polls 2003
Moved to New
Hampshire
81% name ID
2nd place in early NH
polls
Ignored Iowa
How about this guy?
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John Edwards
Never considered a
frontrunner pre-’04
50% of Dems never
heard of him in 2003
“Second place” in IA
2004 (Dems don’t report
votes).
Or this guy?
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Led some national
polls in 2003
Fundraising leader =
major expectations
Third place in IA
The Scream
Stick a fork in it
The Scream
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People in NH reported seeing “scream” at
least 11 times prior to voting in their
primary
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Fox News version
Crowd version
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date
19-Jan
6-Jan
19-Dec
24-Nov
9-Nov
31-Oct
23-Oct
15-Oct
14-Sep
29-Aug
3-Aug
2-Jul
6-Jun
12-May
29-Apr
14-Mar
5-Feb
21-Jan
Opinion in Iowa, 2003-04
75
50
dean
kerry
gep
25
ed
0
date
19-Jan
6-Jan
19-Dec
24-Nov
9-Nov
31-Oct
23-Oct
15-Oct
14-Sep
29-Aug
3-Aug
2-Jul
6-Jun
12-May
29-Apr
14-Mar
5-Feb
21-Jan
How Does it Play in the Media:
Dean’s “Stunning Setback.” Iowa, 2003-04
40
30
20
10
0
Failed frontrunner, 2008
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Mitt Romney
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Spent $85K p day on TV in 2007
Spent $2.5 m on TV for IA straw poll
Spent another $2.4 m on mail, other ads
Won Aug ‘07 IA straw poll
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Earned media, earned high expectations
2007 - 2008 GOP trends
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IA never gots Romney
traction nationally
He lead in IA polls for
months in 2007
Lost IA to a guy w/ a
funny Youtube ad
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34% H, 25% R, 13% Mc
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End of Romney ‘08
Early Momentum
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Many campaigns believe that performance
in early events determines their fate
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“Performance” in early events defined as
much by reality, as by interpretation
IA, NH, and Expectations
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New Hampshire 1972
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Ed Muskie
46%
George McGovern 37%
Interpretation
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Muskie “cried”
IA, NH, and Expectations
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Iowa, 1976
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Jimmy Carter second at 27%; B. Bayh 13%
lost to “Uncommitted” (37%)
Interprentation:
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“Carter Defeats Bayh 2 - 1” NYT
IA, NH, and Expectations
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Iowa, 1988
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Dick Gephart 31%
Paul Simon 27%
Mike Dukakis 22%
Interpretation:
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Gephart & Simon locals, expected to do well
Dukakis “strong showing”
IA, NH and expectations
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Iowa 1984, 1988, NH 1996
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Hart (D) 16% in IA 1984
Robertson (R) 25% in IA 1988 (2nd)
Buchanan (R) 23% in NH 1996 (2nd, Dole 26%)
Interpretation
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“Hart scores upset” ....32% behind Mondale, beat
McGovern
“strong second in surprise” NYT
IA, NH & Expectations
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1992, NH Reality
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Paul Tsongas 33%
Bill Clinton
24 %
Bob Kerry
11 %
Interpretation
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Big win for Clinton, the “comeback kid”
Tsongas from MA, expected to do well, Clinton expected to do
poorly
IA, NH & Expectations
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NH 2004
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Kerry
Dean
Clark
Edwards
39%
26%
13 %
12 %
Interpretation
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two candidate race: Kerry v. Edwards
Dean was expected to do better, Clark won in states in
wrong time zone
Media influence & expectations
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Basis of initial expectations
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standing in early polls
fundraising
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Beating early expectations
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Big shift in attention (deserved?)
Failing to meet expectations
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Big drop in attention
Media influence & expectations
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How is the 2012 result being interpreted by
media
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What were expectations?
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Who beat expectations? Who gets most media
bounce?
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Who failed to meet expectations?
Beating expectations (Media shift)
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Hart 1984
Reagan 1976
Clinton 1992
Buchanan
Carter 1976
Huckabee 2008
Robertson 1988
Obama 2008
37%
36%
35%
28%
25%
21%
20%
17%
Media Shift, 2012 after IA
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Romney
Paul
Gingrich
Perry
Bachman
Santorum
Huntsman
33% pre, 37% post
20% pre, 17% post
20% pre, 11% post
9% pre, 7% post
7% pre, 3% post
9% pre, 21% post
2% pre, 2% post
Lessons from 2008
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Early frontrunners not always strong
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Polls capture name ID
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Dem process = real danger of no clear winner
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Frontloading doesn’t help frontrunners
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Instant fundraising now possible (Internet)
Lessons from 2008
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Could Obama have won w/o Iowa?
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4 days between IA and NH
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Could Huckabee have been noticed w/o
Iowa
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Could Obama have won w/o the Internet?
Lessons from 2008
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Sequence matters
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The schedule matters....2012?
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IA, NH matter....too much?
What if NV went first? NY? WA?
What reforms?
Earliest polls for 2012
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The polls: Feb, April,
Dec ‘10
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Palin 25%, 15%, 17%
Huck 32%, 24%, 18%
Rom 21%, 20%, 19%
Looking back to 2007
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Dem, Jan ‘07, 1 year
before IA
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Clinton 34%
Obama 18%
Edwards 15%
Gore
10%
Kerry
5%
Bidden
3%
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GOP, Jan ‘07 1 year
before IA
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Giuliani 32%
McCain 26%
Gingrich 9%
Romney 7%
Pataki
3%
Huckabee 1%
Reforms
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Regional Primaries
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National primary
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What if everyone voted on Feb 5th 2008
Closed primaries
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Rush Limbaugh, Operation Chaos
Reforms
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Regional primary
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how implement?
who goes first?
Delaware Plan
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10 smallest states first
10 next largest states,
etc.