The 2008 Presidential Elections: How Iowa, New Hampshire
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Transcript The 2008 Presidential Elections: How Iowa, New Hampshire
Presidential
Primaries:
pt 2
Who are the frontrunners?
2015 = 2011, 2007, 2003
Themes
What makes a frontrunner (before any
votes cast)?
Where do media expectations come from?
Why so much volatility in early polls?
How do rules affect who wins nomination?
How it worked in 2012
About 2286 delegates at stake (R)
An odd sequence of events:
IA (1/3), NH (1/10), SC (1/21), Fl (1/31), NV (2/4), ME
(2/4*), CO & MN (2/7), AZ & MI (2/28), WA (3/3); 10 states
on 3/10, etc.
Proportional allocation of delegates if before 4/1
Results from first event have consequences for
subsequent events
How it worked in 2008
About 4200 delegates at stake (D)
An odd sequence of events:
IA (1/3), NH (1/8), MI (1/15), NV (1/19), SC (1/26), Fl
(1/29), 23 states on 2/5/2008
WA on 2/9 (w/ 2 other states)
2012 Nomination Schedule (R)
State
IA
NH
SC
NV
FL
ME
CO & MN
AZ & MI
WA (3/3)
March 6
# delegates
28
12*
25*
28
50*
24
76
59*
43
438
% of total
1.21%
0.52%
1.09%
1.22%
2.18%
1.05%
3.32%
2.58%
1.88%
19.20%
34% of delegates awarded by March 6 2012
2012 GOP Nomination
Super Tuesday less super
AK, GA, ID, MA, ND, OH, OK, TN, VT, VA
Which candidate advantaged?
PR until April 1
Harder for frontrunner to deliver ‘knockout’
blow
Does longer process harm nominee?
2008 Nomination Schedule (D)
State
IA
NV
NH
SC
FL (1/29)
23 states on 2/5
WA on 2/9
LA, NE, VI (2/9)
# delegates
45
25
22
45
185
2075
97
110
% of total
1.07%
.59%
.52%
1.07%
4.40%
51.36%
2.31%
2.72%
61% of delegates awarded by Feb 10 2008
Primary campaigns
Concentrate resources on early states
Visits, spending, ads
Hope for momentum; force others out early
See Washington Post map
Iowa (Jan 3)
New Hampshire (Jan 10)
Washington (March 3)
How it works
Frontloading
Early wins for frontrunner
Momentum & inevitability or....
no clear winner
Party Establishment advantage
IA, NH, done by Super Tuesday
PLEOs, endorsements (168 GOP PLEOs, 7%)
Funding
Most early money = winner
Frontrunners, early ’07 -‘08
2008 frontrunners
H. R. Clinton
led national polls Oct 06 Feb 08
led IA polls Aug - Dec 07
Giuliani
Led national polls 2007
Romney led in IA
McCain never more than
20% until Jan 13 2008
Frontrunners early ‘11 -‘12
2012 frontrunner?
Trump (26% April ‘11)
Romney (25% June )
Bachman (27% IA Aug)
Perry (32% Sept)
Cain (26% Oct.)
Gingrich (35% Dec.)
Paul (25% IA Dec.)
Romney (26% Jan ‘12)
Iowa 2012, result
Romney
Santorum
Paul
Gingrich
Perry
Bachman
Huntsman
24.5
24.5
21.4
13.3
10.3
5.0
0.6
What Influence of Iowa & NH?
Since Carter (1976)
More visits to IA
More time in IA
More spending in IA
More media in IA
same w/ NH
Greater importance of IA?
2015 Straw poll
2007 Straw poll
Sam Brownback, Tommy
Thompson, Huckabee
Dan Quayle 1999
Why Iowa & New Hampshire
Why do these states go first?
National party rule, tradition, stupidity
Why do so many candidates spend so
much time there?
Momentum, momentum, momentum
Remember this guy?
Frontrunner in national
polls 2003
Moved to New
Hampshire
81% name ID
2nd place in early NH
polls
Ignored Iowa
Remember this guy?
Frontrunner in national
polls 2003
Moved to New
Hampshire
81% name ID
2nd place in early NH
polls
Ignored Iowa
How about this guy?
John Edwards
Never considered a
frontrunner pre-’04
50% of Dems never
heard of him in 2003
“Second place” in IA
2004 (Dems don’t report
votes).
Or this guy?
Led some national
polls in 2003
Fundraising leader =
major expectations
Third place in IA
The Scream
Stick a fork in it
The Scream
People in NH reported seeing “scream” at
least 11 times prior to voting in their
primary
Fox News version
Crowd version
date
19-Jan
6-Jan
19-Dec
24-Nov
9-Nov
31-Oct
23-Oct
15-Oct
14-Sep
29-Aug
3-Aug
2-Jul
6-Jun
12-May
29-Apr
14-Mar
5-Feb
21-Jan
Opinion in Iowa, 2003-04
75
50
dean
kerry
gep
25
ed
0
date
19-Jan
6-Jan
19-Dec
24-Nov
9-Nov
31-Oct
23-Oct
15-Oct
14-Sep
29-Aug
3-Aug
2-Jul
6-Jun
12-May
29-Apr
14-Mar
5-Feb
21-Jan
How Does it Play in the Media:
Dean’s “Stunning Setback.” Iowa, 2003-04
40
30
20
10
0
Failed frontrunner, 2008
Mitt Romney
Lost IA to Mike Huckabee
Spent $85K p day on TV in 2007
Spent $2.5 m on TV for IA straw poll
Spent another $2.4 m on mail, other ads
Won Aug ‘07 IA straw poll
Earned media, earned high expectations
2007 - 2008 GOP trends
IA loss = Romney
never got traction
nationally
He lead in IA polls for
months in 2007
Lost IA to a guy w/ a
funny Youtube ad
34% H, 25% R, 13% Mc
End of Romney ‘08
2011 Iowa GOP trends
Through October 2011
Bachmann
Perry
??
Debate fail
Cain
Herminated
2011-12 Iowa GOP trend
Pre Iowa, early Jan.
2012
Romney ahead
Santorum gaining
Result: Romney and
Santorum tied
2012 Post Iowa GOP trend (Natl)
Santorum unknown in
national polls pre IA
Becomes main
challenger to Romney
Early Momentum
Many campaigns believe that performance
in early events determines their fate
“Performance” in early events defined as
much by reality, as by interpretation
IA, NH, and Expectations
New Hampshire 1972
Ed Muskie
46%
George McGovern 37%
Interpretation
Muskie “cried”
IA, NH, and Expectations
Iowa, 1976
Jimmy Carter second at 27%; B. Bayh 13%
lost to “Uncommitted” (37%)
Interprentation:
“Carter Defeats Bayh 2 - 1” NYT
IA, NH, and Expectations
Iowa, 1988
Dick Gephart 31%
Paul Simon 27%
Mike Dukakis 22%
Interpretation:
Gephart & Simon locals, expected to do well
Dukakis “strong showing”
IA, NH and expectations
Iowa 1984, 1988, NH 1996
Hart (D) 16% in IA 1984
Robertson (R) 25% in IA 1988 (2nd)
Buchanan (R) 23% in NH 1996 (2nd, Dole 26%)
Interpretation
“Hart scores upset” ....32% behind Mondale, beat
McGovern
“strong second in surprise” NYT
IA, NH & Expectations
1992, NH Reality
Paul Tsongas 33%
Bill Clinton
24 %
Bob Kerry
11 %
Interpretation
Big win for Clinton, the “comeback kid”
Tsongas from MA, expected to do well, Clinton expected to do
poorly
IA, NH & Expectations
NH 2004
Kerry
Dean
Clark
Edwards
39%
26%
13 %
12 %
Interpretation
two candidate race: Kerry v. Edwards
Dean was expected to do better, Clark won in states in
wrong time zone
Media influence & expectations
Basis of initial expectations
standing in early polls
fundraising
Beating early expectations
Big shift in attention (deserved?)
Failing to meet expectations
Big drop in attention
Media influence & expectations
How was the 2012 result interpreted by
media
What were expectations?
Who beat expectations? Who gets most media
bounce?
Who failed to meet expectations?
Beating expectations (Media shift)
Hart 1984
Reagan 1976
Clinton 1992
Buchanan
Carter 1976
Huckabee 2008
Robertson 1988
Obama 2008
37%
36%
35%
28%
25%
21%
20%
17%
Media Shift, 2012 after IA
Romney
Paul
Gingrich
Perry
Bachman
Santorum
Huntsman
33% pre, 37% post
20% pre, 17% post
20% pre, 11% post
9% pre, 7% post
7% pre, 3% post
9% pre, 21% post
2% pre, 2% post
Lessons from 2008 & 2012
Early frontrunners not always strong
Polls capture name ID
‘08 Dem process = real danger of no clear winner
Frontloading doesn’t always help frontrunners
Instant fundraising now possible (Internet)
Lessons from 2008 & 2012
Could Obama or Romney have won w/o
Iowa?
4 days between IA and NH
Could Huckabee, Santorum have been
noticed w/o Iowa
Could Obama have won w/o the Internet?
Lessons
Sequence matters
The schedule matters....2016?
IA, NH matter....too much?
What if NV went first? NY? WA?
What reforms?
Earliest polls for 2012
The polls: Feb, April,
Dec ‘10
Palin 25%, 15%, 17%
Huck 32%, 24%, 18%
Rom 21%, 20%, 19%
Looking back to 2007
Dem, Jan ‘07, 1 year
before IA
Clinton 34%
Obama 18%
Edwards 15%
Gore
10%
Kerry
5%
Bidden
3%
GOP, Jan ‘07 1 year
before IA
Giuliani 32%
McCain 26%
Gingrich 9%
Romney 7%
Pataki
3%
Huckabee 1%
Looking back to 2011
GOP, Jan ‘11, 1 year
before IA
Huckabee
Romney
Palin
Gingrich
Paul
Pawlenty
30%
18%
16%
13%
6%
4%
Dem, Jan ‘15
Clinton 66%
Warren 9%
Bidden
8%
Sanders 4%
GOP, Jan ’15 (Dec 21 ‘ 14)
Bush
23%
Christie 13%
Carson 7%
Paul, Rubio, Cruz, Ryan 5%
Reforms
Regional Primaries
National primary
What if everyone voted Jan 2012? Feb 2012?
See RCP averages
Closed primaries
Rush Limbaugh, Operation Chaos
Reforms
Regional primary
how implement?
who goes first?
Delaware Plan
10 smallest states first
10 next largest states,
etc.
Why Iowa, NH, etc.?
Face to face
campaigns
Unrepresentative of
US voters
‘Teaching’ people
in other states
Low participation