Carbon Capture and Storage: What Does Integrated Assessment Modelling Analysis Tell Us?

Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi

Research Fellow Council on Energy, Environment and Water Climate Day: Negotiating the Climate Cliff: India’s Climate Policy and INDCs New Delhi, 03 Feb 2015 © Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2015

CEEW: addressing global challenges through an integrated approach

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CCS in Electricity in 2050 across models (striped bars)

Source: Clarke L, Krey V, Weyant J, and Chaturvedi V. 2012. Regional energy system variations in global models: Results from Asian modelling exercise. Energy Economics 34 (3), S293-S305 | 2

Scenarios for policy analysis

• Reference scenario • A two degree scenario with all technologies • A no CCS scenario • GCAM can analyze permutations of energy technology and climate policy scenarios | 3

Modelling Framework: Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

• • • • • • • Economy-Energy-Agriculture Market Equilibrium (Edmonds et al., 2004) 14 Global Regions Fully Integrated Explicit Representation of Energy Technologies Tracks 15 greenhouse gases Dynamic-recursive model Typically runs to 2095 in 5-year time steps Used extensively for energy and climate policy analyses conducted for DOE, EPA, IPCC, etc. (Clarke et al., 2007) |

Business As Usual Scenario

45

Electricity Generation Mix- India

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095 Wind 250 Hydro Oil_CCS Oil 100

Electricity Generation Mix- Global

Biomass_CCS Gas Coal 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095 Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass_CCS Biomass Oil_CCS Oil Gas_CCS Gas Coal_CCS Coal •Coal, nuclear, biomass, and solar important in India’s energy mix •Globally, natural gas to have highest share, followed by coal •CCS will have no penetration unless there is a carbon price | 5

What happens under a ‘Two Degree’ climate scenario?

80 70 20 10 0 60 50 40 30

Indian Electricity Generation Mix

Electricity Generation Mix- Global

Oil 150 Gas 50 Coal 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095 •Nuclear energy (33%), solar energy (34%) and CCS (25%) become critical for India Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass_CCS Biomass Oil_CCS Oil Gas_CCS Gas Coal_CCS Coal •Globally it is CCS, followed by nuclear, wind and solar energy •Global share of CCS in electricity increases from 2% in 2030 to 16% in 2040. Corresponding CO2 price is 44US$/tCO2 in 2030and 72 US$/tCO2 in 2040 | 6

What happens if CCS technology is not commercialized under a ‘Two Degree’ climate scenario?

Global carbon price

Global Emissions in Two Degree Scenario: WIth

25000

and Without CCS

20000 2Degree 3500 3000 2Degree 15000 2500 10000 2000 5000 2Degree_NoCCS 1500 2Degree_NoCCS 0 1000 -5000 Ref Sc 500 BAU 0 -10000 •Non availability of CCS means that global emission peaking year has to shift early •Cost of mitigation and carbon price increases dramatically •Absence of CCS increases cost by over 3% of GDP in 2095, if India wants to act to meet a 2 degree target | 7

First order estimates of geological storage potential of CCS in GCAM (in GtCO2)

USA Canada Western Europe Japan Australia Former Soviet Union China Middle East Africa Latin America Southeast Asia Eastern Europe Korea India Total Global Capacity

Coal Basins

59 1

Depleted Oil Plays

107 14 0 9 1 0 70 22 3 12 16 4 53 3 7.575

3.75

2 1 247

Gas Basins

256 4 169 9 45 33 14 530

Deep Saline Formation On-shore

1161 38

Deep Saline Formation Off-shore

491 36 41 265 1716 78 1562 13 43 4,952 43 66 152 584 41 1,379

Total

1819 53 101 110 429 272 2316 222 90 1614 37 15 100 7,178 | 8

Key Discussion Issues

• When does CCS come in as a big sink for carbon globally?: Only beyond 2030, when technology cost declines and

carbon price

increases • Shift in peak emissions: When no CCS, higher mitigation to be done in the near term • BioCCS?: Global versus domestic potential of bioenergy • KEY CONCLUSION: NO TECHNOLOGY SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE MITIGATION PORTFOLIO FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF COST EFFECTIVENESS!

• STORAGE POTENTIAL AND COST CURVES NEEDED FROM INDIA. CCS READY PLANTS IMPORTANT.

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THANK YOU

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