Transcript Slide 1

‘Scenario Coaster’
Coming to terms with the
mainstream peaking
scenarios.
...an addendum to
‘Our Future(s)’
Bryn Davidson
DRAFT June 23, 2006
DRAFT: June 23, 2006
4 Energy
Scenarios
Proactive Response
Government, Society,
Technology & Markets
“Lean Economy” *
Rapid
Depletion
and/or early
peaking
aka “Powerdown”
aka “Energy Descent”
“Techno-Markets”
aka “Sustainable Development”
aka “Sci-Fi Utopia”
“Collapse”
“Burnout”
aka “Mad Max”
aka “Easter Island”
aka “Climate Chaos”
aka “Business as Usual”
Slow
Depletion
and/or later
peaking
Reactive Response
Markets, Technology,
Society & Government
* per David Fleming
DRAFT: June 23, 2006
Global Oil Production - Peaking Scenarios
CERA 2005
ExxonMobil 2005
EIA (High Price) 2006
BP 2005
Koppelaar 2005
Laherrere 2005
ASPO 2005
2006
+20 yr.
(likely head-start required to fully mitigate peaking*)
* per the ‘Hirsch Report’
Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter
www/trendlines.ca
DRAFT: June 23, 2006
Global Oil Production ....... Which scenario is preferable? Which is scariest?
1970
2006
DRAFT: June 23, 2006
Global Oil Production – A Scary Peaking Scenario - ASPO
Compiled by Freddy Hutter
www/trendlines.ca
Scary: Fossil fuel production
pleateaus, then drops off
unexpectedly.
CERA 2005
@#$%!
where’d
that come
from?!
Very few countries have plans in
place to deal with the massive
economic turbulence...
ExxonMobil 2005
EIA (High Price) 2006
....‘Collapse’.
BP 2005
...or if you cooperate locally....
‘Lean Economy’
Koppelaar 2005
Laherrere2005
ASPO 2005
2006
+20 yr.
Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter
www/trendlines.ca
DRAFT: June 23, 2006
Global Oil Production – The Scariest Peaking Scenario - CERA
CERA 2005
ExxonMobil 2005
EIA (High Price) 2006
BP 2005
Koppelaar 2005
Laherrere2005
ASPO 2005
2006
+20 yr.
Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter
www/trendlines.ca
DRAFT: June 23, 2006
Global Oil Production – The Scariest Peaking Scenario - CERA
Scary – Part 1: Fossil fuel
production ramps up faster than
‘clean-fossil’ technologies that
sequester emissions – leading to
accelerated global warming,
pollution, sprawl, and oil
dependence.
CERA 2005
ExxonMobil 2005
EIA (High Price) 2006
BP 2005
...‘Burnout’
Koppelaar 2005
Laherrere2005
ASPO 2005
2006
+20 yr.
Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter
www/trendlines.ca
DRAFT: June 23, 2006
Global Oil Production – The Scariest Peaking Scenario - CERA
Scary – Part 2: Fossil fuel
production plateaus, then drops off
a cliff...
@#$%!
New technologies can’t come close
to making up the difference...
CERA 2005
ExxonMobil 2005
EIA (High Price) 2006
....‘Collapse’
BP 2005
Koppelaar 2005
Laherrere2005
ASPO 2005
2006
+20 yr.
Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter
www/trendlines.ca
DRAFT: June 23, 2006
Global Oil Production – The Scariest Peaking Scenario - CERA
‘Burnout’
+
@#$%!
‘Collapse’
CERA 2005
ExxonMobil 2005
=
EIA (High Price) 2006
(Probably not a preferred future)
BP 2005
Koppelaar 2005
Laherrere2005
ASPO 2005
2006
+20 yr.
Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter
www/trendlines.ca
DRAFT: June 23, 2006
Global Oil Production – Smoothest Peaking Scenario - Laherrere
Compiled by Freddy Hutter
www/trendlines.ca
Not too scary: Oil and gas peak
around 2012, but we’ve had a few
years to get ready.
CERA 2005
We encounter some shortages, but
the decline of oil and gas is slow
enough that some of the ‘clean fuels’
actually make a bit of a difference.
!
ExxonMobil 2005
EIA (High Price) 2006
BP 2005
....‘Techno-Markets’.. if the
mainstream politicians got the
incentives right back in ’06.
Koppelaar 2005
Laherrere 2005
ASPO 2005
....‘Lean Economy’
... if you had to
go-it-alone with just
your local community.
2006
+20 yr.
Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter
www/trendlines.ca
DRAFT: June 23, 2006
Global Oil Production – Energy Transition Strategies
1. Can you generate a broad
consensus around the fact that (a) and
(c) are possible, but probably not
desirable.
(a)
CERA 2005
ExxonMobil 2005
2. If so, then plan your mainstream
policies around a consensus path*
...probably something similar to (b)?.
EIA (High Price) 2006
(b)
3. Develop contingency plans for
dealing with either (a) or (c).
BP 2005
Koppelaar 2005
(c)
4. Start. Now.
Laherrere 2005
ASPO 2005
* Whether or not you think
this is the most probable.. it
needs to be the one we can
agree on as being
preferable – peakniks,
economists, politicians, and
everyone in between.
2006
+20 yr.
Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter
www/trendlines.ca
DRAFT: June 23, 2006
‘Scenario Coaster’
an addendum to
‘Our Future(s)’
These scenarios are a work-inprogress. Thanks to everyone
who has commented thus far...
Bryn Davidson
604.728.0606
[email protected]
Dynamic Cities Project
www.dynamiccities.org
Rao/D Cityworks
www.rao-d.com
DRAFT: June 23, 2006