Transcript 2012 Transit Elections: Results & Trends

Six Stops to Success:
Getting Ready for the Ballot
January 14, 2014
Washington, DC
Today’s Speakers
• Jason Jordan, Director, Center for
Transportation Excellence
• Tim Heberlein, Political Director, Florida
Consumer Action Network
• Curt Below, Senior Vice President,
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz &
Associates (FM3)
Jason Jordan, CFTE
EARLY ACTION STEPS
1. Basic Research
• Who decides about going to the
ballot? Who controls the process?
• What funding tools are available?
• What flexibility do you have on timing?
• What is the process for ballot
language?
• Any restrictions?
• Who’s involved?
2. Evaluation of Timing +
Environment
• When to go to the ballot?
• What else will be on the ballot?
• What’s the likely political climate?
3. Project Development
•
•
•
•
Identify specific projects
Identify and quantify specific benefits
Run the numbers
Think about the map
4. Early Education +
Outreach
• Use agency public meeting and
outreach processes
• Set up the “problem” to be solved
• Think about non-campaign advertising
• Understand (and deal with) the
agency’s image
• Engage key advocacy groups
• Cultivate champions
5. Coalition Building
•
•
•
•
Be broad and creative
But, have a champion and a leader
Leverage existing networks
Plan for the transition from “inside” to
“outside”
6. Early Intel
• Poll
• Test everything
• Know your voters … and, organize to
reach them
7. Make a Plan
• And, write it down.
Tim Heberlein, Florida Consumer Action Network
ORGANIZING FIELD
OPERATIONS
About Me
 Worked in Grassroots organizing since 2006
 Electoral and Legislative Organizing
 Transplant military brat
 About FCAN
 Founded 1984
 Progressive non-partisan non-profit c4 with a c3
foundation
 Build power through grassroots lobbying, community
organizing, and coalition building
Greenlight Pinellas
 Elimination of PSTA’s nearly 3/4 mill property tax when the


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

potential $.01 sales tax takes effect January 1, 2016
A 65% increase in overall bus service throughout Pinellas
County Bus Rapid Transit lines on most major Pinellas
corridors.
Buses running to and from Tampa and the airport in the
evenings and on weekends
A four-fold increase in bus service in northern Pinellas
County
Longer service hours to accommodate second shift workers
and evening travelers
Future passenger rail from St. Petersburg to Clearwater via
the Gateway/Carillon area
Key Components
 Field
 Communications
Building out the Field
 Recruiting
 Spell out your needs (“Activist Menu”)
 Coalitions: Political tables, labor, ridership, advocacy
 At transit-related and transit-likely supportive events
 From the field: An ask in every contact
 Retaining
 Parades for small victories
 Use as Leadership Development opportunities
Field cont.
 Voter Targeting
 Know your win number
 Know the landscape
 Past transit referendums
 Down ballot Vote Loss
 Use Polling and be data driven
 Creating a transit support model (there are some already out there!)
 Measuring responses from the field
Changing the Message
 Narrative is framing the conversation from your perspective
 “Wall Street Fat Cats” vs “Job Creators”
 What do you want that message to be
 “_______ is better with transit.”
 Who are the opinion makers (Grasstops leaders, Media,
Electeds, donors, etc.)
 Engaging the public
 Public events / transit events
 Outreach (businesses, electeds, Grasstops leaders)
 Micro-polling to temperature check
Other Tips
 Track success in the field through data as well as
stories
 Celebrate the campaign – retain your human resources
 Continuous feedback from the field to donors, allies,
media, etc.
Summary
 Recruit and Retain
 Be data driven
 Frame the debate
 Build the echo chamber
 Repeat repeat repeat
 Test, Adjust, repeat
Your organizations should be stronger after each
campaign.
My contact Info
 [email protected]
 (813)532-9846
 @timintampa
Questions?
Curt Below, FM3
POLLING + EARLY CAMPAIGN
INTELLIGENCE
January 14, 2014 – Curtis Below
The Goals of Campaign Polling
For campaigns, polling is not a crystal ball; instead it
is a strategic tool, used for shaping and targeting
messages. It tells a campaign:




Where you start
Who you need to talk to
What you need to tell them
What kind of impact you can have
It is the key to allocating scarce resources effectively
to have the maximum impact and increase the
chances of winning.
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Research can provide perspective and
dispel the “squeaky wheel” phenomenon.
On most community and public
policy issues, elected officials
and institutions hear from a tiny –
but vocal – fraction of the
population:
“the
squeaky
wheels.”
Typically, there is a silent majority
which can feel strikingly different
than the vocal minority. Research
provides perspective on what the
broader whole thinks and says.
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Research can also highlight how
important specific language can be.
“In your own words, what does the
term ‘watershed’ mean to you?”
47%
Don’t know
27%
A geographic area through
which water flows to a
common destination
26% A building or shed used to store water
1999 survey of 850 Santa Clara County, CA residents
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Where Policy Meets Politics:
The Brownie Box
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And opinion research makes you…
With limited time and/or
limited dollars, a
campaign needs to hit
the mark on the first try.
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The Two Major Types of Research
 Open-end discussion;
 Closed-end questions;
 Small groups of people;
 Large number of people;
 In-depth probing;
 Limited number of
questions;
 Understanding
perceptions, opinions,
beliefs, and attitudes;
 Answers “why?” and
“how?
 Broad data, generalized
results;
 Answers “what?” and
“how many?”
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Polling in a Campaign Context
 Feasibility Poll
Brief early poll to determine what type of ballot measure
and/or funding source is most viable.
 Baseline/Benchmark Poll
Most comprehensive poll; conducted shortly after
structure and language of measure are set.
Determines targeting, messages, and strategy.
 Tracking Poll
If necessary and within budget, conducted in final
weeks before Election Day, to measure progress and
adjust strategy accordingly.
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Sample Size: How Many
People Should We Interview?
 The number of people that are interviewed is largely
dependent on resources/declining value for margin of error.
 The more people you interview the more accurate your
results will be.
 Think of the population as an entire
pot of soup.
 Just a few spoonfuls will give you a
taste;
 But a lot of spoonfuls will give you a
much better sense of the full flavor.
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Sample Size Determines Margin of Error
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Types of Survey Questions

There are several types of questions, some standard that you
will likely see across surveys and questions that are campaign
specific.

In a survey, there are generally two types of questions -- the
closed-ended and open-ended questions.

The closed-ended question offers only a set number of
responses for survey participants to select from. Virtually ALL
the questions you ask on a survey are closed-ended.

The open-ended question gives the participant the freedom to
respond at-length and in their own words. Responses are
recorded verbatim by the interviewer and later transcribed.
Only one or two open-ended questions should be asked on a
survey.
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A Typical Transportation Campaign
Questionnaire Structure
1) Screening questions to ID likely voters
2) Background/contextual questions: right direction/ wrong
track, favorability ratings, etc.
3) Draft 75-word ballot question
4) Open-ended question on reasons for vote
5) Evaluating relative concern about transportation issues
6) Testing aspects of ballot measure structure (mechanisms,
rates, durations, etc.)
7) Ranking importance of specific transportation projects
8) Testing the impact of accountability mechanisms
9) Pro arguments, followed by a re-vote
10) Con arguments, followed by a revote
11) Demographics (age, gender, race, income, party, etc.)
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Analysis of the Results
We focus on the following:
 Who are the campaign’s base supporters, and
who are potential swing voters?
 How large and well-defined a group are the
swing voters? How much do they move?
 Which messages and messengers have the
greatest impact with them?
 Is there a focused message you can deliver to a
specific target to make an impact?
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Napa County, CA Measure T
 In November 2012, Napa County voters
approved (75% YES to 25% NO) Measure T, a
one-half cent sales tax to fund transportation
projects.
 Building on prior research conducted in 2007
and 2008, in May 2010 FM3 conducted a
feasibility survey which helped lead to Measure
T and shape it’s structure and framing.
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Voters see a great need for
additional road repair funding;
congestion relief is a lower priority.
Do you believe there is a great need, some need, a little need or no real
need for additional funding for
in Napa County?
Congestion Relief and
Transportation Improvements
Road Repairs
Great need
69% Total
Some need
Yes
93%
24%
Little need
2%
No need
3%
DK/NA
2%
0%
Q5/6 Split Sample
Total
Yes
72%
39%
33%
Total
No
5%
9%
14%
Total
No
23%
5%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
37
The proportion of voters who
assign a high priority to road
repairs has grown.
(Ranked by 2010 % High)
High
Fixing potholes and making urgent
street and road repairs
2010
Maintaining city streets and county
roads
2010
Making Napa County eligible for its
fair share of state and federal
transportation funds
2010
Low
DK/NA
73%
16% 10%
56%
2007
35%
72%
21%
63%
20%
33%
40%
60%
5%
15%
27%
52%
0%
4%
28%
59%
2007
9%
23%
65%
2007
Ensuring that sidewalks and other
pedestrian pathways are accessible to
disabled persons
Medium
5%
6% 4%
14%
80%
100%
11. I am going to read you a list of potential ways that money from this ballot measure might be spent. Please tell me whether you would give a high, medium or low priority
to __________? Split Sample
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The priority assigned to every
other area dropped.
High
Improving traffic light synchronization so
that traffic moves faster along Highway 29
Improving safety on streets and
roads
Medium
50%
13%
27%
43%
2010
19%
39%
58%
2007
DK/NA
29%
45%
2010
Low
14%
38%
17%
Reducing traffic congestion
54%
2007
43%
2010
Synchronizing traffic signals
30%
27%
51%
2007
0%
20%
13%
28%
32%
40%
3%
60%
14%
80%
3%
100%
11. I am going to read you a list of potential ways that money from this ballot measure might be spent. Please tell me whether you would give a high, medium or low priority
to __________? Split Sample
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Vehicle Registration Fee
Language Tested
NAPA COUNTY TRAFFIC CONGESTION RELIEF AND TRANSPORTATION
IMPROVEMENT MEASURE
200 Interviews


400 Interviews
Relieve traffic congestion;

Improve traffic flow on local highways,
roads and intersections countywide;
Fix potholes and repair local streets
and roads;

Improve safety and traffic flow on
local highways, roads and
intersections countywide;


Synchronize traffic signals;

Improve pedestrian walkways and
bike paths; and

Reduce pollution that causes global
warming;

Improve pedestrian walkways and
bike paths; and
Reduce pollution that causes global
warming;
Shall the Napa County Transportation Planning Agency levy a $10 vehicle registration
fee for each vehicle registered in Napa County, subject to citizen oversight and
annual independent audits?
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A VRF measure that would
include funding for road repair
garners majority support.
First 200:
Without Road Repair
28%
Definitely yes
14%
Probably yes
2%
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
11%
40%
Definitely no
Undecided
30%
Total
Yes
44%
0%
Probably no
Final 400:
With Road Repair
23%
4%
2%
Total
No
51%
9%
29%
5%
0%
Total
Yes
57%
+13%
Total
No
40%
-11%
-2%
3%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0%
+/-% of
Change
20%
40%
60%
8 (Total) First 200/Final 400. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it?
80%
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The most compelling message
in favor of the measure highlights
the need to take an initial step
toward repairing roads.
(Ranked by % Very Convincing)
Very Conv.
^It is no secret that local streets and roads in Napa County are
in horrible shape. In fact, a recent analysis by an independent
agency ranked our roads among the worst in the region. We
can’t rely on Sacramento to take care of this problem for us. We
must act now to take the first step toward doing something
about it.
41%
S.W. Conv.
33%
74%
By law, this measure must provide direct benefits to motorists
who pay the fee. Unlike other funding measures, every cent
generated from this measure must be spent on local
transportation improvements in the area in which it is raised so
that each city in the County can fund its highest transportation
priorities.
35%
40%
75%
This measure will provide a stable, reliable and dedicated
source of funding for transportation improvements that will be
kept at the local level, and cannot be diverted to other purposes
or taken away by Sacramento.
34%
39%
73%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
12. First, here are some statements from supporters. Pease tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote yes on
the measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample
100%
42
Anti-tax sentiments connected
to the economy are the most
persuasive arguments in
opposition to the measure.
(Ranked by % Very Convincing)
Very Conv.
We are still in the midst of the worst economy in decades,
unemployment continues to rise and people are still losing
their homes. Now is not the time to raise taxes.
S.W. Conv.
24%
43%
With a multi-billion dollar state budget deficit, and a weak
economy, now is not the time to raise taxes.
21%
41%
^We are overtaxed already. If County officials want to
improve our transportation system, they should tighten
their belts and find the money in the existing budget.
36%
0%
20%
67%
25%
40%
62%
61%
60%
14. Next, here are some statements from people who oppose the measure. After hearing each statement, please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat
convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote no on the measure. ^Not part of Split Sample.
80%
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Voters express strong support
for a half cent sales tax
measure that would not increase
the existing tax rate.
Definitely yes
44%
Probably yes
25%
3%
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
0%
Probably no
Total
Yes
72%
Total
No
21% 27%
6%
Definitely no
1%
Undecided
0%
20%
40%
60%
7. I know five to six years from now is a long way off, but if the election were held today and the half cent sales tax measure to repair and improve local streets and
roads and reduce traffic congestion were on the ballot, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it?
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Democrats and independent
voters offer higher levels
of support.
Party
Undecided
67%
100%
Total No
81%
Total Yes
61%
80%
0%
1%
1%
20%
18%
40%
33%
38%
60%
0%
(% of
Sample)
Democrat
(49%)
Republican
DTS/Other
(32%)
(19%)
7. I know five to six years from now is a long way off, but if the election were held today and the half cent sales tax measure to repair and improve local streets and
roads and reduce traffic congestion were on the ballot, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it?
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Strategies for Local Revenue Success
 Stress the economic benefits of the measure in terms of
job creation – both direct and indirect.
 Make low per-household costs clear.
 Highlight specific, flagship projects that are locally
important.
 Emphasize that funds will be
spent locally – not at the state
level.
 Highlight
fiscal accountability
provisions – audits, oversight,
public
disclosure,
sunset
provisions, etc.
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For more information, contact:
1999 Harrison St., Suite 1290
Oakland, CA 94612
Phone (510) 451-9521
Fax (510) 451-0384
[email protected]
Upcoming Webinars
February 18, 2014
Funding Your Campaign
March 25, 2014
Making Friends for Transit Investment
April 15, 2014
Going Multimodal at the Ballot Box
Register at www.cfte.org/six-stops
Questions?
Jason Jordan
Director, CFTE
[email protected]
@jasonljordan
www.cfte.org
Thanks to our cosponsor