Transcript Diapositive 1

October 26th 2009, KIHASA, Seoul
Family policies in
an ageing society. France
Seminar on Policies Responding to Low Fertility
Sharing Korean and European Experiences
Julien Damon
Associate Professor, Sciences-Po (Paris)
www.julien-damon.com
Population (thousands)
Constant-fertility variant - 1950-2050
80 000
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
France
Korea
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,n
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
0
Total fertility (children per woman)
Medium variant - 1950-2050
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
France
Republic of Korea
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,n
2045-2050
2040-2045
2035-2040
2030-2035
2025-2030
2020-2025
2015-2020
2010-2015
2005-2010
2000-2005
1995-2000
1990-1995
1985-1990
1980-1985
1975-1980
1970-1975
1965-1970
1960-1965
1955-1960
1950-1955
0
Population aged 65+ (%)
Medium variant - 1950-2050
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
France
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
0
Republic of Korea
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,n
The many objectives of the
French familiy policy
-Support to fertility
- Protect the family (preserve the traditional model)
- Protect the children (support for their education)
- Struggle against inequality and poverty
- Support to the work-family balance
- Promote gender equality
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Public spending on family benefits in cash, services
and tax measures, in per cent of GDP, 2005
Cash
Source : OECD
Services
Tax breaks towards family
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
French social policies
The Post-War Management Scheme
 Risk coverage for
“social assistance”
beneficiaries
 Principally financed
through contributions
 Mainly horizontal
redistribution
 Divided into different
programs
 1945 goal:
universality
 The various social
insurance programs
provide four-fifths of
the benefits
Extras
PROVISION FOR THE FUTURE
 Optional and compulsory
protection
 Mutual associations,
insurance companies,
contingency fund
organizations
 1945 goal: progressive
reduction of the need for
contingency mechanisms
Social Security
INSURANCE
Social Assistance
ASSISTANCE
 Needs-based risk
coverage
 Principally financed
through taxation
 Mainly vertical
redistribution
 1945 goal: assistance
expected to become
residual
Bird's-eye View (1)
French social policies have met many of the goals they
were designed to achieve...
•
•
providing coverage for the whole population
•
•
significantly improving the overall health of the population
•
achieving one of the highest fertility rates in the Western
world
fulfilling a role as an effective, Keynesian-inspired, economic
stabilizer
reducing poverty, particularly among seniors
Bird's-eye View (2)
... they have, however, been hindered by substantial
difficulties arising from economic and social change
•
•
•
•
•
persistently high unemployment, resulting in lost revenue
and increased social expenditures
structural deficits that create a burden for future generations
aging population
poor, insufficient, or incomplete coverage of new risks
(dependency in old age, exclusion, immigrant integration,
etc.)
changes to the family structure that challenge the
“male breadwinner” concept
The “Structure” of Social Risk Management
By broad risk area, 2007
Four “social risks”...
•
•
•
•
Occupational injuries
Old age
Illness
Family
... that grew to eleven!
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Maternity
Unemployment
Work transitions
Survivors
Disability
Housing
Poverty
Old age
Health
Family
Employment
Housing
Poverty
But what does it mean?
Four “social risks”...
•
•
•
•
Occupational injuries
Old age
Illness
Family
... that grew to eleven!
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Maternity
Unemployment
Work transitions
Survivors
Disability
Housing
Poverty
These are the Social Security “branches”
established in 1945
Accounting terms used to describe social
assistance benefits
The French debate concerns the creation
of a “fifth risk”...
 A highly ambiguous situation
How will “Retirement” and “Family” Risks evolve?
Dependency or early childhood?
80
Financing requirements
of old age insurance
plans (billions of Euros)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2006
Number of day care
spaces per 100 children
under 3 years of age
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
Families are not the same as they used to be (1)
Changes to the number of births and the proportion of extramarital births in France
Births
Extra-marital
Source: INED
Families are not the same as they used to be (2)
The “work/family balance” revolution
Cross-country relation between female employment rates and total fertility rates
Source: OECD
Work and life balance :
insatisfation
Source : Family life and the needs of an ageing population, Eurobaromètre, 2008
Work and life balance : the
solution ?
Source : Family life and the needs of an ageing population, Eurobaromètre, 2008
OECD countries by family policy
Pre-primary education
Childcare …
Childcare in
the EU.
French are
among the
least
satisfied…
Source : Eurobaromètre, 2005
Parental leave
Any relationship with fertily?
Weeks
156,0
FTE Paid Leave
Unpaid leave
104,0
52,0
0,0
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Sources: OECD, National Statistical Offices and Eurostat Demographic Statistics for EU countries.
A big issue:
how many
children do
women desire?
Source : Eurobaromètre, 2006
A very big issue: women in modern life
Female Managers
Territory size shows the proportion of worldwide work force of female
managers that work there.
Source : www.worldmapper.org
Another important relationship:
share of births outside marriage and
fertility rate, 1970, 2005
Sources: OECD, National Statistical Offices and Eurostat Demographic Statistics for EU countries.
The last (French?) big issue: migration
After the brain drain, the care drain?
The more you spend, the more you have children?
NO
The easier it is to work and to divorce, the more you
have children?
PROBABLY
A new european idea:
social investment
Thank you for your attention