Transcript The impact of international migration on fertility in England and Wales.

The impact of international migration
on fertility in England and Wales
Julie Jefferies and Eva Natamba
Fertility Analysis Unit
ONS Centre for Demography
Office for National Statistics
Recent headlines:
1 in 4 children born to a foreign
parent as immigration grows
Source: The Times
Thursday 23, August 2007
25% OF UK BIRTHS ARE TO
FOREIGNERS …and more Brits
than ever are emigrating
Source: The Sun
Thursday 23 August 2007
Introduction
1. Recent trends in UK fertility
2. Trends in births to mothers and fathers born
outside the UK
3. How does international migration affect fertility?
4. Impact of international migration on population at
risk of a birth
5. Impact of international migration on fertility rates
Total Period Fertility Rate, UK, 1971-2006
2.6
Children per woman
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Year
1996
2001
2006
TFR, UK countries, 1971-2006
TFR
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Year
England
Scotland
Wales
Northern Ireland
2006
Age-specific fertility rates, UK
Live births per 1000 women in age group
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
30-34
60
35-39
40
20
40+
0
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Age-specific fertility rates, UK
Live births per 1000 women in age group
200
180
160
140
25-29
120
20-24
100
80
30-34
60
35-39
40
<20
20
40+
0
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
International migration: females of
childbearing age
Total international migration, women aged 15-44,
UK, 1995-2005
300
250
Thousands
Inflow
200
150
Outflow
100
50
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Country of birth of mothers and fathers,
E&W, 1975 - 2006
100%
90%
80%
Percentage
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2006
Mother and father non-UK born
Mother non-UK born, father not known
Mother non-UK born, father born in the UK
Mother born in the UK, father non-UK born
Mother born in the UK, father not known
Mother's country of birth is not stated
Mother and father born in the UK
Mother’s country of birth 2001 / 2006
% births to non-UK born mothers
Top 10 non-UK countries
of mother's birth
2001
16.5%
Number
Pakistan
14,588
Bangladesh
8,164
India
6,598
Germany
4,047
Irish Republic
3,662
Somalia
3,189
USA
2,848
Nigeria
2,611
South Africa
2,176
Jamaica
2,035
2006
21.9%
Pakistan
India
Bangladesh
Poland
Nigeria
Somalia
Germany
South Africa
Ghana
Irish Republic
Number
17,150
11,114
8,797
6,620
5,854
5,639
4,749
4,253
3,513
3,462
Mother’s country of birth 2001 / 2006
% births to non-UK born mothers
2001
16.5%
2006
21.9%
Live births to non-UK born mothers
97,895
146,944
% births to mothers born in A8
countries
0.3%
1.6%
Live births to mothers born in A8
countries
1,950
10,841
% births to mothers born in
Pakistan/India/Bangladesh
4.9%
5.5%
Live births to mothers born in
Pakistan/India/Bangladesh
29,350
37,061
How might international migration have an
impact on fertility?
1. Effect of net in-migration on population at risk:
• size of female population of childbearing age
• age composition of female population
2. Effect of net in-migration on fertility rates:
a. differences in actual/intended family size between
– in-migrants, out-migrants and UK population
– in-migrant sub-groups
b. does timing of childbearing in relation to migration
have an impact on period fertility?
Decomposition of number of births in E&W
Actual births
2004 – 639,721
2005 – 645,835
Components of this increase:
• Rising fertility rates +6K
• Increased female population size +6K
• Ageing of female population -6K
What effect did migration have on population at
risk?
Effect of international migration on
number of births in E&W
• Ageing-on of the population and other changes
(mainly mortality) between mid-2004 and mid-2005
decreased the number of births in 2005 by 8.7
thousand.
• Net international migration between mid-2004 and
mid-2005 increased the number of births in 2005
by 8.7 thousand.
Out-migration decreased
the number of births by
7.5 thousand
In-migration increased
the number of births by
16.2 thousand
Differences in TFRs by country of birth
Using LFS populations
by country of birth and
birth registration data
for E&W, 2006
Estimated TFRs by country of
birth of mother, E&W 2006
Pakistan/Bangladesh
Africa
Caribbean
Other Asia
Middle East
A8
India
Other Americas
Rep. Ireland
Rest of Europe
USA
China & Hong Kong
Other EU15, Malta & Cyprus
UK
Old Commonwealth
5.38
2.91
2.85
2.85
2.63
2.52
2.50
2.47
1.98
1.91
1.85
1.84
1.72
1.71
1.57
Change in TFR for UK/non-UK born women
Estimated TFRs by country of
birth of mother, E&W
2002
2006
UK-born
1.5
1.7
Born outside UK
2.3
2.5
All
1.6
1.8
Using LFS
populations by
country of birth
and birth
registration data
for E&W, 2002/6
Change in ASFRs, 2002-06, for UK-born
and non UK-born women in E&W, LFS
160
140
Age-specific fertility rate
2006
Born outside UK
120
2002
100
2006
80
2002
60
40
20
UK-born
0
15 - 19
20-24
25-29
30-34
Age group
35-39
40+
Intended family size, women aged 30-34
UK and non-UK born
Born
UK
UK-born
Number aged 30-34
0 children
1 child
2 children
3 children
4 children
5 children
6+ children
outside
4235
636
Expected fertility
14.1%
15.4%
39.1%
20.4%
5.2%
4.0%
1.8%
11.3%
11.9%
36.6%
22.2%
7.7%
5.7%
4.5%
(GHS data 2000-05)
Actual family size, women aged 30-34 UK
and non-UK born
Born
UK-born
outside
UK
Number aged 30-34
4235
636
0 children
1 child
2 children
3 children
4 children
5 children
6+ children
Actual fertility
38.5%
22.8%
25.9%
8.9%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
48.3%
20.2%
17.7%
8.0%
3.5%
1.5%
0.8%
(GHS data 2000-05)
% childless by age, UK and non-UK born
women
Age
16
20
25
30
35
40
45
-
19
24
29
34
39
44
49
UK born
93.9%
75.1%
57.7%
38.5%
24.5%
22.6%
20.4%
Non-UK born
99.2%
80.5%
65.1%
48.3%
30.9%
23.4%
24.0%
(GHS data 2000-05)
Intended family size, women born in
selected countries, all ages
Expected
family size
0 children
1 child
2 children
3 children
4 children
5 children
6+ children
n
UK born
16.5%
13.2%
40.6%
19.8%
6.1%
2.6%
1.3%
EU born
20.5%
11.8%
37.9%
20.2%
6.0%
1.9%
1.7%
84,375,997 2,190,151
Pakistan
born
India born
10.7%
11.2%
2.7%
12.6%
18.6%
39.8%
16.3%
22.0%
19.8%
8.6%
14.3%
5.3%
17.6%
0.6%
549,983
847,354
(GHS data 2000-05)
Key points
• Proportion of E&W births with a mother/father born outside
•
•
•
•
the UK is increasing.
Net international migration is increasing the total number of
births via its effect on the female population at risk and via
the differential fertility rates of migrants and non-migrants.
Some (but not all) in-migrant groups have higher fertility
rates and intended completed family sizes than UK-born
women.
Non-UK born women are contributing around 0.1 to the
E&W TFR.
Fertility rates have risen for UK born women since 2002 as
well as for non-UK born women.
Further questions
• What might be causing increased fertility among
UK-born women? Are UK women realising they
can’t leave it too late?
• To what extent are the findings for UK-born women
influenced by second-generation in-migrants?
• Are the fertility rates of in-migrant populations likely
to converge to rates for UK-born women in future?
• How is the timing of fertility in relation to migration
affecting period fertility?