Transcript Slide 1

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A Development Perspective of Impacts and Adaptation
for Human Settlements, Energy and Industry
Manmohan Kapshe
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India
Workshop on
Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change:
From Practice to Policy
11-12 May 2006, Hotel Metropolitan Nikko, New Delhi
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Presentation Agenda
Present Status
National Level Integrated Assessment
Impacts and Adaptation Strategies
Development and Climate Change
Managing Transitions
Conclusions
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Present Status
Sectoral studies
Few impact studies
Very few adaptation studies
Regional diversity and Geographical
differences
Limited economic indicators of damages and
costs
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Limitations of Approaches
Limited capability to characterize and
parameterize long term interactions between
the economy, society, and environment
Most of the assumptions are derived from
developed world perspective
Inability to characterize discontinuities and
extreme events
Weak behavioral interfaces
Distance between analysts and policy
makers
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National Level Integrated Framework
Global Assessment
National Assessment
National Implementation
Measurements
National Emissions
Global Emissions
and Atmospheric
Ch ange
Emissions, Impacts
Energy System
Other Emissions
Project / Finance
Mitigation
Mitigation/Adaptation
Population, Economy,
Technology,
Governance
Adaptation
Feed Back
Socio -economic
Development Paths
Global Policy
Regimes and
International
Agreements
Policy Instruments
Emissions Trading.
Standar ds, Insurance
Climate Change
Temperature Rise
Precipitation Change
Sea Level Rise
Drought and Flood
Adaptation
Institutions
NATCOM, Ministries,
Experts, Regulators
Impacts
Human and Natural
Systems
Technology
R&D, Technology
Transfer and Diffusion
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Analytical Framework
Primary
data
SectorImpact
matrix
Secondary
data
Extent of
impacts
Scenarios
Framework for
V&A assessment
Inputs from
experts
Total
damage
costs
Risk
Mitigation
packages
Impactunit cost
matrix
Uncertainty
and risk
assessment
framework
Primary
data
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Secondary
data
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A Case of Konkan Railway
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Traffic volume
Maintenance
Land slide
Vegetation growth
Water logging
Extreme events
Sea level rise
Rainfall
Temperature
Dependent variables
Project
Components
Environmental
Variables
Forcing Variables
Temperature
Safety/Efficiency
Project Components
Environmental Variables
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Rainfall
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Sea level rise
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Extreme events
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Water logging
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Vegetation growth
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Land slide
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Safety/Efficiency
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Maintenance
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Traffic volume
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Konkan Railway: Impacts and
Adaptation
 Presently 20% of repair and maintenance
expenses on tracks, tunnels and bridges are
due to climatic reasons.
 An accident on 21st June 2003 night, resulting
in over 50 deaths, was caused by landslide.
Consequent to the accident, maximum
permissible speed of trains was reduced from
120 Km/h to 75 Km/h.
 Identification of the vulnerable spots and
installation of “Raksha Dhaga”. Present
vulnerable regions in the northern zone are
shown on the map. Future rainfall pattern
shows that such events are likely to occur
more frequently and with higher intensity.
 Adaptation measures should also consider
non technological measures
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Climate Change Impact on Energy
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10
GW
 Capacity for additional
demand: 13 GW in 2100,
i.e. 1.5% of reference case
 Electricity demand
increased by 64 TWh in
2100
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0
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
Year
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50
TWh
 Energy and electricity
demand rise from building,
irrigation and transport
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 Energy mix is unaltered.
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1995
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2010 2025
2040 2055
Years
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Climate Change Impact on Emissions
Million Ton
 In 2100, carbon
emissions increase by
13.5 million ton, i.e. 1%16
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rise over reference
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case
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 Emissions increase in
power and transport
sectors
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2
0
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
Years
 Cumulative increase
710 MT
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Uncertainty in Socio-economic Factors
 Population growth
Fast changing fertility and mortality rates across the region.
Migrations resulting from natural disasters like cyclones,
floods and droughts.
 Urbanization
High rate of urbanization is causing pressure on existing
infrastructure.
Change in energy resource use pattern
 Economic and social development
Level of economic and social development varies across
the region.
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Special Characteristics of Settlements,
Energy and Industry
 Impact are more directly associated with climatic
extremes rather than averages.
 Possibility of abrupt climate changes not
anticipated by normal response planning
 Substantively different for relatively developed,
industrialized regions vs. less developed regions.
 Negative impacts of climate change pose risks of
higher economic damages in developed /
industrialized areas but higher human damages in
less-developed areas.
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Adaptation Strategies
 Facilities and linkages against extreme weather-related
events
 Contingency planning (such as stockpiling)
 Changes in financial mechanisms to increase resiliency
 Increased efficiencies in thermal conditioning
 Relocation and industrial restructuring
 Planning for likely increase in energy demands
 Adaptation by industry will be associated with marginal
adjustments to changes in climatic parameters
 Attention to the security of transportation and other linkage
infrastructures
 Risk financing and risk mitigation
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Development and Climate:
The Perspective
Conventional perspective
Development is a threat to climate
Climate change a barrier to development
Development and Climate perspective
Pathways that achieve national development goals
are climate-friendly
Development is the driving force for addressing
climate change challenges
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Development and Climate:
The Paradigm
Climate policies and actions to be driven by
national development targets
agreed goals under extant international
agreements
Expanding development and climate frontier
though:
Innovations (technology, institutions)
regional cooperation
targeted technology and investment flows
aligning stakeholder interests
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Managing Transitions
Socio-Economic
Demographic: Urban / Rural, Gender ratio, Migration
Life Styles
 Development Indicators
Income, Equity, Literacy, Health
Infrastructure, Housing, Vehicles, Appliances
Political
Institutions
Laws
Policies
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Managing Transitions
Energy Resource
Supply Side
Fossil Futures: Conventional Coal/Gas/ Oil,
Unconventional Oil/ Gas
Renewable Energy: Bio-technology, Solar
Large Hydro: Multi-purpose schemes
Nuclear: Fission with zero waste, Fusion
Demand side
Efficient Appliances
Substitutions (e.g. Information for transport)
Advance Technologies: Fuel-cell, Storage, Hydrogen,
economy, Bio-engineering
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Managing Transitions
Technology
Logistics: Pipelines
Electricity T&D : Decentralized utilities
Information: Wireless
Nanotechnology
Consumption & Life-style
Conservation : Substitutions, Recycling
City Planning, Architecture/ Building Codes
Sustainable Habits / Tradition
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Managing Transitions
Environment
Awareness: Pressure groups
Income-effects: e.g. Kuznets phenomenon
Laws and Regulations: Global agreements,
National policies
Technology: Zero-effluent Processes, Recycling
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Key Issues
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Contribution of development to mitigation
Linkages of impacts and adaptation across sectors
Impact of mitigation on energy system, e.g. coal
Co-benefits of different emission mitigation pathways
Water-energy-food nexus for adaptation
Role of development policies to enhance adaptive
capacities
Continuous v/s extreme events adaptation
Needs for risk and uncertainty assessment
Role of Technologies
Role of Economic instruments (insurance): From non
climate to climate focus, eg. Crop insurance
Institutional mechanism (communities, civil society,
governments) in adaptation
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Conclusions
 Identification of critical needs for policy formulation
in local context
 Customization for local legal and policy frameworks
 Level of exposure to climate change impacts
 More studies needed on economic indicators of
damages and costs
 Development of an analysis framework to work as
broad guideline with flexibility to accommodate
situation specific changes
 Development of community response mechanism
 Internalization of adaptation approaches in
development processes for effective
implementation
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Thank You.
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