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VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATiON

Amit Garg

International Climate Change Conference, Johannesburg October 19, 2005

Source: India’s Initial national Communication to UNFCCC

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The Setting

India is a vast country (3.28 million sq km) Diverse physiographical features Himalayas, Coastal areas, northern plains, peninsular plateau and islands Occupies 2.4% of the worlds land area but support 16.2% of the worlds human population Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon Endowed with varied soils, climate, biodiversity and ecological regions Under such diverse natural conditions, a billion people speaking different languages, following different religions, inhabiting in rural and urban areas live in harmony under a democratic system

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Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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V & A activity under NATCOM

    Modeling of climate projections using GCMs and RCMs  Projected temperature, rainfall, extreme events Assessment of impacts and Vulnerability; different sectors  Water resources  Agriculture/crop production  Forests and natural ecosystems  Coastal zones  Industry, energy and infrastructure  Health; malaria Preliminary assessment of adaptation strategies Identify constraints to V&A assessments and adaptation

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Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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V&A – Institutional Arrangement

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Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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What are the projected changes in temperature on a regional scale?

Projections of seasonal precipitation for the period 2041-60, based on the regional climate model HadRM2

Source:

India’s Initial National Communication, 2002

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Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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What are the projected changes in precipitation on a regional scale?

Projections of seasonal precipitation for the period 2041-60, based on the regional climate model HadRM2

Source:

India’s Initial National Communication, 2002

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Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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Climate Projections: Summary

Maximum temperature :

25 o N.

increase

by 2-4 ° C during 2050s in regions above

Minimum temperature: Increase

up to 4 o C all over the country.

May exceed 4 ° C over southern peninsula, northeast India and some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Bihar.

Monsoon Rainfall: marginal changes

in monsoon months (JJAS) :

Large changes

during non-monsoon months

Number of rainy days:

Decrease in the number of rainy days over a major part of the country. More in western and central part (by more than 15 days) while near foothills of Himalayas (Uttaranchal) and in northeast India the number of rainy days may increase by 5-10 days.

Extreme Rainfall events

: overall increase in the rainy day intensity by 1-4 mm/day except for small areas in northwest India where the rainfall intensities decrease by 1 mm/day.

Cyclonic storms

: projected Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is

B A S I

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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What are the projected changes in river water availability on a regional scale?

River basins of Mahi, Pennar, Sabarmati and Tapi are likely to experience constant water scarcity and shortage. River basins of the Cauvery, Ganga, Narmada and Krishna are likely to experience seasonal or regular water stressed conditions Acute physical conditions water scarce Constant water scarcities and shortage Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions Rare water shortages

Source:

India’s Initial National Communication, 2002

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Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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Agriculture

 Agriculture productivity will be impacted due to 

Changes in temperature and rainfall



Rise in CO 2 concentration in atmosphere



Occurrence of pests and disease

 V&A ASSESSMENT INCLUDED ;    Changes in food production with respect to rainfall Effect of increase in temperature and CO (rice) 2 on simulated grain yields Impact of climate change on productivity of irrigated wheat National assessment based on climate impact modeling not yet feasible

B A S I

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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Impacts of climate change- findings

Projection of a general decrease in rice yield with increase in temperature Wheat yield are projected to decline from 4% to 24% in different regions -

(under scenario of; CO

2

of 425 ppm and 2 o C warming)

Doubling of CO 2 rainfall will lead to; & warming (3

o

C) accompanied with reduction in - reduction in yields of several dry-land crops Loss in farm-level net revenue predicted

B A S I

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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Forestry Sector

National level modeling undertaken to assess impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems;   applying the climate projections derived from HadRM2 using BIOME 3 vegetation response model

Results

Shift in forest types / boundary:  75% of grids with forests are expected experience changes in forest types  70% of Dry savannah is likely to change to Xeric Woodland  Dry moist savannah in in the North-Western parts, is likely to change to Xeric Shrub land  Moist savanna -located in North-East and parts of the Southern India is likely to be converted into Tropical Seasonal Forest Productivity: Increase in net primary productivity (NPP) in more than 75% of the grids with forests

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Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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Biodiversity

Climate change is projected to forest boundaries increase species losses , particularly due to shift in Habitats of many species will move north ward from their current locations Upward migration of plants in the Himalayas related vegetation, thus could reduce the alpine meadows and impacting the habitats of several high altitude mammals including wild sheep, goat, antelope and cattle.

Increase in precipitation over northeastern India place the wildlife in Kaziranga National Park at risk leading to severe floods could

Present vegetation map Expected biome types under climate projections in 2050s

.

Dry savannah Xeric Shrub land

Present Biome Types under CTL run

Xeric woodland Tropical Seasonal Forest Boreal Evergreen Tundra

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Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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Natural Ecosystems

Broad preliminary national level assessment of impact of climate change on natural ecosystems (no modeling attempted) Results Grasslands: Under enhanced CO predominance over C3 plants.

2 and increase in temperature, C4 species are likely to have a Present distribution of natural ecosystems in India Mangroves: Mangroves just next to the sea will be submerged due to SLR and plants with high salinity tolerance will survive Increased glacier-melt bringing larger quantities of fresh water will favor mangrove species with least tolerance to salinity Coral reefs: to bleaching of Corals and submergence due to SLR Increase in temperature would lead

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Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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Health: An Overview

Impact of climate change on incidence of malaria in India is assessed Results It is projected that by 2080s, malaria will penetrate elevations above 1800 meters and some coastal areas. 10% more states may offer climatic opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year with respect to the year 2000. The transmission windows in northern states of Jammu and Kashmir and the western state of Rajasthan are likely to increase by 3 to 5 months In the southern states, however, the window is likely to shorten by 2 to 3 months (a) (b) Transmission windows of malaria in different states of India (a) in 2000 and (b) T W Op e n fo r m o nths T W O p e n fo r m o nths in 2080

B

4-6 7-9

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

N.A

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4 -6 7 -9 1 0-1 2

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Adaptation Strategies

 Preliminary assessments made for different sectors; including assessment of current policies and programmes in relation to vulnerability  Most technologies & measures to address current stresses are also relevant to adapt to climate change (water, forest, agriculture, etc.)  Additional technologies & measures needed to address climate impacts  Further analysis needed to identify; adaptation technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs

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Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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Features / Limitations

     Impact assessment is made using climate change projections using a single model outputs (RCM Had RM2) and single scenario (IS92a) Uncertainty of projections of climate parameters at regional level Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at regional level (forests, crop production, water) Limited data availability Limited time (<12 months) and resources

PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF V&A MADE UNDER THE NATCOM PROJECT

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Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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Future - V & A

       Need for improved and reliable regional climate models and climate projections for impact assessment Need for improved climate change impact or response models - Sectoral, Regional, & Integrated Appropriate data generation for modeling Assessment of impacts at regional level & identification of vulnerable regions, socio-economic systems Development of adaptation strategies Networking of institutions, capacity building, sustained research teams Financial and institutional support needed 

www.natcomindia.org

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Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

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