Transcript Slide 1

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Impacts and Adaptation for
Energy and Infrastructure
Manmohan Kapshe
Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India
International Climate Change Conference, October 19, 2005
Johannesburg, South Africa
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Presentation Sequence
Why Energy and Infrastructure?
Special Characteristics of Energy and
Infrastructure
Methodology
Results
Major findings and conclusions
Recommendations and future work
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Why Energy and Infrastructure?
 Energy and Infrastructure are essential for economic
development
 These are man made long-life assets
 investment is crucial to support a higher level of
industrial growth
 These systems are designed to tolerate a reasonable
level of variability but climate change can affect both
average conditions and the probability of extreme events
 Damages occur primarily because of high vulnerability
and low adaptive capacity
 Economic growth in India demands energy and
development of its infrastructure
 Huge investments are planned for these sectors
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Special Characteristics of Energy and
Infrastructure
 Impact are more directly associated with climatic extremes rather than averages.
 Possibility of abrupt climate changes not anticipated by normal response
planning
 Substantively different for relatively developed, industrialized regions vs. less
developed regions.
 Negative impacts of climate change pose risks of higher economic damages in
developed / industrialized areas but higher human damages in less-developed
areas.
 Economically significant. However, not generally considered to be heavily
affected by climate change.
 Sensitivity to climatic variability and change is relatively lower because of a high
capacity to adapt in response to changes in climate.
 Especially vulnerable are informal settlements within urban areas, which tend to
be built on hazardous sites and to be susceptible to floods, landslides, and other
climate-related disasters.
 Coastal Settlements and industry show a higher vulnerability.
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Conventional Impact Matrix
Project Components
Coast.
Env.
Land
erosion
Flora/
fauna
Air Quality
Forest
Cover
Environmental
Effects
Tunnel
Embankment
Slope Cutting
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Bridges
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Effect of project on environment,
Short term impacts are prominent
Civil Buildings
Forcing Variables
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Reverse Impact Matrix
Dependent Variables
Forcing Variables
Environmental Variables
Projects Components
Environmental Variables
Project Components
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Konkan Railway
The 760 Km long Konkan
Railway on the Western coastal
ghats of India is an
engineering marvel with 179
main and 1819 minor bridges,
92 tunnels (covering 12% of the
total route) and over 1,000
cuttings (224 deeper than 12
meters). The longest tunnel is
6.5 Km long and the longest
bridge is over 2 Km. The pillars
of the tallest viaduct bridge are
more than 64 meters high,
taller than Qutab Minar.
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Konkan Railway: Climate Change Impacts
Climatic Parameter
Temperature Increase
Rainfall Increase
Sea Level Change
Impact Parameter
Intervening Parameter
Impact on KRC
High evaporation rate
Stability and Strength of the
building materials
Buildings gets weakened More and
frequent repair and maintenance
Surface and ground water loss
Crop productivity in the region may
be affected
Agricultural fright traffic
Need for Air-conditioning
Passenger traffic may shift to Air
conditioned class
Affects efficiency, carrying capacity
and composition.
Ground and surface water level
change
Flooding and water logging, Erosion
reduces quality of land cover
Buildings affected, structural damages
may take place. Increased maintenance
and other related costs
Improved water availability in the
region
Agricultural production
Changes in agricultural freight traffic
Humidity increase
Uncomfortable climatic conditions,
Vegetation growth along the track
Passenger traffic, affected, increased
maintenance cost
Land erosion
Tracks tunnels and bridges may be
affected
Increased maintenance,
Flooding
Land stability, and land slides
Damage to infrastructure,
Reconstruction and relocation
Water logging
Delays, risk increase
Cyclone and high velocity winds
and storms
Damage to buildings,
communication lines etc
Disruption of services, repair and
reconstruction costs
Cloud bursts
Land erosion, floods, and land slides
Extensive damage to infrastructure,
High cost of repair and reconstruction
Extreme Events
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Konkan Railway: Impact Analysis
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Traffic volume
Maintenance
Land slide
Vegetation growth
Water logging
Extreme events
Sea level rise
Rainfall
Temperature
Dependent variables
Project
Components
Environmental
Variables
Forcing Variables
Temperature
Safety/Efficiency
Project Components
Environmental Variables
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Rainfall
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Sea level rise
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Extreme events
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Water logging
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Vegetation growth
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Land slide
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Safety/Efficiency
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Maintenance
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India: Observed and Simulated Rainfall
Precipitation scenario (2100, HadCM model,
IITM Pune, India)
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MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
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DEC
Precipitation scenario (2050s, CCSR/NIES
model, Japan)
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Konkan Railway: Impacts and Adaptation
 Presently 20% of repair and maintenance
expenses on tracks, tunnels and bridges are due
to climatic reasons.
 An accident on 21st June 2003 night, resulting in
over 50 deaths, was caused by landslide.
Consequent to the accident, maximum
permissible speed of trains was reduced from
120 Km/h to 75 Km/h.
 Present vulnerable regions in the northern zone
are shown on the map. Future rainfall pattern
shows that such events are likely to occur more
frequently and with higher intensity.
 Identification of the vulnerable spots and
installation of “Raksha Dhaga”.
 Adaptation measures should also consider non
technological measures
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Climate Change Impact on Energy
 Direct Impacts
Space cooling and heating in residential, commercial
and industrial buildings
Air-conditioning in transport vehicles
Time of use and cooling load
 Indirect Impacts
Increased water requirement for irrigation
Increased residential water requirement
Water availability
 Supply Side Impacts
Hydroelectricity potential
Activities of petroleum companies
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Scenario Drivers and Model Parameters
(ANSWER-MARKAL)
Scenario
Key Drivers
Implication on Critical
parameters
Climate Change
Impact on Energy
Sensitivity of various sectors,
change in demand, and direct
and indirect linkages.
Demand (),
technology efficiency ()
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Observed and Simulated Mean Annual Temp.
Temperature scenarios (2100, IITM Pune, India)
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Climate Change Impact on Energy
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GW
 Capacity for additional
demand: 13 GW in 2100, i.e.
1.5% of reference case
 Energy mix is unaltered.
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 Electricity demand increased
by 64 TWh in 2100
0
1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
Year
70
60
50
TWh
 Energy and electricity demand
rise from building, irrigation
and transport
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1995
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2010 2025
2040 2055
Years
2070 2085
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Climate Change Impact on Emissions
 Emissions increase in power
and transport sectors
 Cumulative increase 710 MT
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1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
Years
Million Ton
 In 2100, carbon emissions
increase by 13.5 million ton, i.e.
1% rise over reference case
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Probability and Variability
Increasing mean and variability of the number of
days with heavy rainfall will adversely affect the
infrastructure, if adequate adaptation measures
are not taken.
A. With increase in the mean, the probability of
receiving heavy and concentrated rainfall increases
resulting in increased threat to infrastructure
B. Increase in variability may cause extremely high
concentration of rainfall. It may also result in many
new locations getting high rainfall, and many
existing locations with heavy rainfall getting more
frequent and severe rainfall.
C. Simultaneous increase in mean and variability will
make the system highly vulnerable as this will result
in high number of days with heavy rainfall, scattered
in time and space.
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Repair and Maintenance Costs
Infrastructure Maintenance Costs
Long-life assets commissioned
now will have higher failure
rates after a century when they
become old. Climate change
shall also exacerbate in later
part of the 21st century.
Therefore, impact probability
and costs on the infrastructure
would increase significantly in
later years.
Cost Curve Under Climate Change
Conventional Bath-Tub Curve
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
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Findings and Conclusions
 Long lived assets having low autonomous adaptive capacity will be
vulnerable to long-term environmental changes in the later half of the
century, depending on location.
 Impact of environmental change becomes important only in long term.
Therefore, it is most often ignored in short-term analysis. Long term
projects should carry out this analysis.
 Many studies for emission assessment but very few for Impacts
 Non technological measures are also important for effective
implementation
Environmental impact studies should include impact of long-term environment change
on project parameters and resources planning (e.g. energy, water)
Macro-micro / Global-local linkage
E.g. Building code, Insurance
Integrated institutional design for policy formulation and implementation
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Findings and Conclusions
 Two important insights
need for awareness building among the concerned people
developing good quality databases
 further studies are needed which would require
Preparation of a catalogue of historic extreme events,
assessing the damages and providing the loss estimates
Detailed GIS covers with topographic, vegetation and
geological details showing the major infrastructure systems
and components
Sensitivity assessment of the infrastructure components
with respect to various forcing climate parameters
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Energy and Infrastructure:
Adaptation Strategies
 Facilities and linkages against extreme weather-related
events
 Contingency planning and disaster preparedness
 Changes in financial mechanisms to increase resiliency
 Relocation and industrial restructuring
 Planning for likely increase in demands
 Increased efficiencies in thermal conditioning
 Adaptation to be associated with marginal adjustments to
changes in climatic parameters
 Attention to the security of infrastructure
 Risk financing and risk mitigation
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Recommendations
Incorporation of future climate extremes in
the project design parameters in the
immediate-term
Improved operational and maintenance
practices in the near-term
Improved climate predictions and creation of
insurance markets in the long-term
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Scope for Future Work
 Establishing the parameters for the reverse link matrix and
identification of the cost structure.
 Estimating risks associated with Extreme events with the
help of Sectoral case studies
 Identification of forcing variables and values of thresholds
 Linking of scenarios to critical parameters
 Development of a model and GIS-based computer algorithm
for climate change impact studies
 Detailed regional climate variable projections
 Adaptation issues of climate change impacts: technology,
community response, innovations and insurance
 Financing adaptation research and activities
 Integrated impact assessment studies
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Thank You.
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