Transcript Document

India’s Approach to MDG Data
Gaps
S. Chakrabarti
Director
Central Statistical Organisation
India
NDP Framework
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FYP - India’s development framework
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Derives strategies from track record
Sets goals and targets
Identifies intervention mechanism
Defines approach to programmes
Allocates resources
National Policies and Action Plans
Political Agenda
MDGs- another framework
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Poses new challenges
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Compatibility with NDP framework
Reformation of existing Statistical objectives
Relevance of the indicators – How many?
Optimality of choice
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Transformation burden
Degrees of freedom
India’s Approach
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Recognizing the potentiality of existing
processes
Minimum conflict with NDP framework –
discretion
lowkey troubleshooting
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Reliance on alternatives
Allowance for invisibility
Actionable Indicators
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40 out of 48 are relevant
35 out of 40 for tracking – straightway
34 of 35 are visible in MDGR
6 out of 40 are missing – in the lab
Classification
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Identical
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Similar
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Alternative
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Invisible
having exact conformity with the
standard definitions
definitionally modified as per data
availability or for contextual reasons
different indicator in the absence of
quality data for the prescribed
left out either for reasons of contextual
irrelevancy or for complete lack of data
Size of the classes
No. of Indicators in each class
Identical
13
Similar
18
Alternative
3
Invisible
6
Total
40
Minimum loss
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1/3rd of actionable set are identical –
matching globally
50% of actionable set are of altered kind –
includes 7.5% of real proxy type
15% are missing -
Issue: ‘Altered’ Indicators
ALTERED VS. STANDARD
1.1A
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Poverty Headcount Ratio
State specific poverty lines for rural and
urban areas – sub-national
National poverty lines for rural and urban
areas differ from States’ poverty lines
All-India implicit poverty line for the urban
areas is nearly 57% higher than that for
rural areas at 2004-05 prices
1.1A
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PHR (contd.)
Poverty line (hence PHR) is based on
distribution of persons by household per
capita monthly consumption expenditure
corresponding to the consumption basket associated with the given calorie norm (2400 kcal in
rural areas and 2100 kcal in urban areas) and meeting a minimum of non-food requirements such
as clothing, shelter, transport, etc.
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Percentage of population below the
national poverty line [= PHR] is weighted
average of States’ PHRs
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Relative price differentials in different states get reflected
Youth Literacy
2.3 + 3.2
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For age group (15-24 yrs) there are 2
MDG indicators
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Literacy Rate of 15-24 year olds (2.3)
Ratio of Literate Women to Men, 15-24 years old (3.2)
India reports in MDGR
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Adult literacy rate for the age group (15yrs+) for 2.3
Literacy gender parity index for (7yrs+) for 3.2
2.3 + 3.2
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Youth Literacy (contd.)
India’s reporting in keeping with NLM
objectives and programme determeined
Data available from decennial census and
NSS can be tailored to get both measures
for age group (15-24 yrs)
Shift to the right age bracket on cards
Underweight Children
1.4
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Prevalence rate has reference age group
of 0-59 months prescribed
India’s data is based of National Family
Health Survey (NFHS) conducted for the
years 1992-93, 1998-99 and 2005-06
Last two surveys has reference age 0-35 months
while the first one has 0-47 months
 Results of last 2 NFHSs are not comparable with
first NFHS results
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1.4
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Underweight Children (contd.)
Underweight: < (- 2 SD) from median
weight of reference age group (MDG prescribed)
Underweight : < (- 2 SD) from mean as per
WHO’s standard for the age of the child
(India’s criterion)
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global comparability is vitiated, while reporting for health statistical
frame work is kept in view
Issue: coverage
INCIDENCE BIAS
HIV related
6.3 + 6.4
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Two indicators:
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HIV prevalence among pregnant women aged 15-24
years and
Condom use percentage at high-risk age.
Data on these are collected through
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Annual round of HIV sentinel surveillance at identified
sentinel sites (clinics) conducted during 12 weeks from
1st August to 31st October every year.
Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance Survey’ (BSS)
conducted once in three years among general population
and high-risk groups.
6.3 + 6.4
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HIV related
The estimates are too specific to high-risk
zones, both at state-level and national
level.
Whereas MDG prescription stresses to
high-risk sex in general
The findings of the two for high-risk groups
differ as the latter survey is conducted by
an independent organisation.
6.5 + 6.6
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Malaria Prevalence
Limitation of these rates is that they
grossly underestimate the incidence in
tribal, hilly, difficult and inaccessible areas,
which cover 20% of population but 80% of
malaria cases.
6.7 + 6.8
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TB Prevalence
Death rate due to TB as per notified cases
under DOTS or captured through ARTI is
grossly underestimated
It is Important as India’s TB burden is of
great concern.
Issue: compatibility with international bodies
Whose is more important?
7.4
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CO2 Emission
National reporting to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate
Change, which follows the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change guidelines, is based on national
emission inventories and covers all
sources of anthropogenic carbon dioxide
emissions as well as carbon sinks (such
as forests).
7.4
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CO2 Emission
In the global CO2 emission estimate of the
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre
of OAK Ridge National Laboratory, USA, the
calculated country estimates of emissions
include emission from consumption of solid,
liquid and gas fuels, cement production and
gas flaring.
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Convergence of international obligations is a far cry
Issue: Use of Proxy indicators
How Good are they?
2.1 +2.2
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Primary Enrolment
Net Enrolment Ratio (NER) in primary education is
defined as the ratio of the number of children of official
school age who are enrolled in primary school to the
total population of children of official school age. (MDG)
Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) which is defined as the
number of pupils enrolled in a given level of education,
regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the
population in the normative age group for the same level
of education, is calculated for Class I-V and age 6-11
years.(India)
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The limitation of this indicator is that, in some cases,
the figure is more than 100% due to enrolment of
children beyond the age group 6-11 years.
2.1 +2.2
Primary Enrolment
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‘Survival rate to Grade 5’ is defined as the
percentage of a cohort of pupils enrolled in
Grade 1 of the primary level of education in a
given school-year who are expected to reach
Grade 5 (MDG)
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Apparent survival rate based on the share
of enrolment in Grade II and subsequent
primary grades in relation to enrolment in
Grade I in a year is worked out (India)
Issue: missing data
Are they really missing?
Missing Indicators
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Proportion of the population below
minimum level of dietary energy
consumption.( Indicator 5: MDG1)
Contraceptive Prevalence Rate. (Indicator
19C: MDG6)
Ratio of School Attendance of Orphans to
School Attendance of non-orphans aged 1014 years. (Indicator 20: MDG6)
Missing Indicators(contd.)
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Proportion of households with access to
secure tenure. (Indicator 32: MDG7)
Unemployment Rate of Young People Aged
15-24 years, Each Sex and Total. (Indicator
45: MDG8)
Proportion of population with Access to
Affordable Essential Drugs on a
Sustainable Basis. (Indicator 46: MDG8)
Why Missing ?
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Some are under serious examination
Those which can be approximately
estimated by re-tabulation of survey data,
required enterprise is missing
Proxy indicators are not in sight
Issues in focus
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Need to use altered indicators is
predominant and economic
Linkage with programme initiatives should
be supported
Proxy indicators can be justifiable
Non-availability may be probed in
statistical labs.
The race to reach the
indicators may out run the
race to the Goals
Thanks