Solar Power Potential with PRT

Ron Swenson ATRA Santa Cruz 2006 November 18

The Elevator Speech

•

Without solar, energy independence is pure rhetoric.

•

Clinton’s New Generation Vehicle Arnold’s Hydrogen Highway

•

GM’s Yellow Gas Cap

•

Bush’s Cellulosic Ethanol.

Only solar energy will do the job. Solar is sufficient to power high capacity PRT

-- 100 percent --

using only the system’s 4’ to 8’ right of way.

A Little Personal History

Objective To demonstrate that solar energy is an adequate oil substitute, and is in fact the only viable transport alternative.

Context: Collosal issues are forcing us to rethink our options… • Peak Oil will limit global supply of liquid fossil fuels.

• Global Warming will force out coal and uranium.

• Substitute BioFuels cannot achieve adequate scale.

• Social Equity will prevail against war for oil.

Solution: Solar PRT the only transport option that offers… • Politics: Energy Independence • Economics: Quick Payback • Science: Good Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI) • Environment: Carbon Divestment

Context: Global Warming

Global Warming over the Past Millennium Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20 th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.

Carbon Intensities for California and Selected Countries 25 United States 20 Canada 15 10 5 Netherlands Sweden France Australia Denmark California Germany United Kingdom Italy Spain Portugal Greece 0 0 0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Tons of CO 2 per Thousand 1995 US Dollars

2

0.8

0.9

Context: Peak Oil

We know the peak is coming … but what can we do about it?

Can Solar Energy Replace Oil?

American Consumers

Do

Understand

Context: BioFuels

Net Production of Biomass in the USA

www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek

The All-New DonCar!

www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport

There is no Silver Bullet.

Why Silver in the first place? • The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted.

• Specific gravity of Pb = 11.35

• Specific gravity of Ag

Context: Social Equity

Swenson’s Law To avoid deprivation resulting from the exhaustion of non renewable resources, humanity must employ conservation and renewable resource substitutes sufficient to match depletion.

www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson

Consequence of Delayed Investment Net Energy Production 120 begin investment before decline 100 80 60 40 Begin investment during decline 20 0 0 10 20 30 40

Time

www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil

Energy Independence

Non Oil, Power Exporting … • Countries…(Sweden, Iceland..) • Cities… (Santa Cruz?) • Colleges… (UCSC?) • Companies… (ElectroRoof, 3 BOE/day) • Citizens… (You and I?) But “energy independence” is an elusive goal. To get a clue, let’s go

back to the future

…

Thomas Edison “I'd put my

money

on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” (1847-1931)

www.ThomasEdison.com

Global Solar Energy Balance Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts) 178,000 Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000 Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 82,000 40,000 Captured by Plant Photosynthesis Total Energy Used by Human Society 100

13

Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5

Total Human Food Energy 0.6

www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth

www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2

Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand

Nevada www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2

P109-G1055201

PV:

The

Growth Industry Oil PV Oil declines at 4%/yr PV increases at 50%/yr Peak +5 +10 +15

www.ecotopia.com/ASES/SolarToday

The Solution: Solar PRT

Solar on Rail

www.SolarEvolution.com/SkyTran

SkyTran Solar Solar SkyTran, with aesthetics emphasis and added power at stations

jPod Solar

www.jPods.com

Similar Solar Systems Exist

Economics

Calculate Solar size, cost per Mile 30 mph, operating speed x 2 sec (vehicle interval) = 88 ft between vehicles = 60 vehicles/mi, separated by interval specified x 2 kw @ operating speed = 120 kw needed in a mile stretch 10 hrs at peak operation equivalent ÷ 4 hrs of peak sun equivalent (Coast = 4, Desert = 6) = 2.5 solar factor 120 x 2.5 = 300 kW/mile x $6.00 /watt $1,800,000 /mi 16 watts / sq ft, SunPower, most efficient on market 3.5 ft wide solar panel to meet requirement

Santa Cruz Projected Growth in Travel

Calculate Passengers per Day 1.5 people/vehicle 2,700 passengers per hour at full capacity 27,000 passengers per day

www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

Compare Solar to Gasoline at $2.50/gallon 25 mpg, average fleet mileage 27,000 passengers per day to match 2.0 people/vehicle 13,500 vehicles/day x $2.50 /gallon fuel price = $33,750 Cost to travel fleet mileage daily $ 12,318,750 Annual cost to travel fleet mileage $ 45,000,000 Cost of solar to cover fleet mileage = 3.7 years, Payback for solar system to offset gasoline

www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

Science

Thermodynamics of Oil And it’s getting worse… It depends … • Pennsylvania?

• Saudi Arabia?

• Off-shore?

Plus … • Ravaged land/oceans • Greenhouse gases • Water contamination

EROI = 10

±

Thermodynamics of PV • EROI: 5 years • Life: 50 years • Plus it can be bootstrapped And it’s getting better…

EROI = 10



30 ~ electric

Environment

Corn Cars & Bean Buses?

Back to solid fuels?

A team of horses uses 10 tons of feed per year. How much more would a tractor need?

Lessons from History!

The original buggy whip protest!

Electricity. Not exactly a new idea… … It is ephemeral, like solar power. Can you lift it?

See it?

Touch it?

A match made in heaven.

The Electric Rail

Solar PRT

www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

Solarevolution™

More at www.SolarEvolution.com

Additional Information More about Global Conditions More about California Conditions More about Santa Cruz Conditions More about PRT More History More about Ethanol More about TeraWatts

More about Global Conditions: Peak Oil

Projected Vehicle Ownership Growth

Consumption by Sector, USA

Wishful Thinking: Energy Futures

Oil Market Paradigms

100 “Seven Sisters” OPEC manages market Conservation, new fuels, new technologies 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Oil shocks OPEC FSU OPEC has to meet new demand OPEC FSU 30 20 30 20 10 Non-OPEC - FSU Non-OPEC - FSU 10 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 90 80 70 60 50 40

Used with permission by Peter Wells

Cumulative World Energy Investment by Energy Use

USD $16 Trillion Investment thru 2030 $10 Trillion in Electric Power Plants

More about Global Conditions: Global Warming

CO 2 Reduction Target •

Breakdown of CO 2 Emissions

More about Global Conditions: Conventional Vehicle Perspective

Well-to-Wheel Measuring the

efficiency

and

emissions

of the fuel/energy source

From “Well-to-Wheel” to LCA

LCA Example: CO 2 from Materials Production kg CO 2 /kg

LCA Example: CO 2 from Vehicle Production

More about California Conditions

Regulations and fiscal policies can make a difference

Total Electricity Use, per capita, 1960 - 2001 kWh 14,000 12,000 12,000 U.S.

10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 California 8,000 7,000

More about Santa Cruz Conditions

Santa Cruz Daily Travel Patterns

Master Transportation Study

Master Transportation Study

More about PRT

Freeway at Capacity

Vehicles Removed

PRT Passengers

PRT System

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

More History

Lest we forget … They

did

bring coals to Newcastle.

If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.

Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841

The Horseless Carriage

From GridLock to Gas Lines

More about BioFuels

The BioFuel Myths and Facts

Reality or Public Relations?

For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.

Richard Feynman, Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident

Appendix F

ﾐ

Personal observations on the reliability of the Shuttle

, June 6, 1986

US Agriculture: Crop Areas

www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek

US Agriculture: Crop Energy Total crop energy 9.14 EJ (9quads)

www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek

More about TeraWatts

Solar Industry Response?

Goals • 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠ • 200 gW by 2030 = 10% How to get there? • Federal government procurement $100 m/year • R&D investment $250 m/year by 2010 • “Enact, modify, establish, boost, support, increase, strengthen, grow…”

www.HubbertPeak.com/Apollo2

Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge) 50 45 40 15 10 5 0 35 30 25 20

2004 14.5 Terawatts 220 M BOE/day

0.5% O il C oa l G as Source: BP & IEA Fi ss io n B io m ass H yd ro el ec tri c So la r, w in d, g eo th er m al

The Basis of Prosperity 20 st 21 st Century = Oil Century = [Renewables]

25 20 15 10 5 0 50 45 40 35 30 O il C oa l

30 -- 60 Terawatts 450 – 900 MBOE/day

G as Fus ion / F is si on

www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley 2050

B iom as s H ydr oe le ct ric Sol ar , w ind, g eot he rm al

Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?

Yes!

“

Think TeraWatts

”

white

Renewable Nations