Transcript Solar PRT, ATRA, Santa Cruz 2006

Solar Power Potential with PRT
Ron Swenson
ATRA Santa Cruz
2006 November 18
The Elevator Speech
Without solar, energy independence is pure rhetoric.
• Clinton’s New Generation Vehicle
• Arnold’s Hydrogen Highway
• GM’s Yellow Gas Cap
• Bush’s Cellulosic Ethanol.
Only solar energy will do the job.
Solar is sufficient to power high capacity
PRT -- 100 percent -- using only the
system’s 4’ to 8’ right of way.
A Little Personal History
Objective
To demonstrate that solar energy is an adequate oil substitute,
and is in fact the only viable transport alternative.
Context: Collosal issues are forcing us to rethink our options…
•
•
•
•
Peak Oil will limit global supply of liquid fossil fuels.
Global Warming will force out coal and uranium.
Substitute BioFuels cannot achieve adequate scale.
Social Equity will prevail against war for oil.
Solution: Solar PRT the only transport option that offers…
• Politics: Energy Independence
• Economics: Quick Payback
• Science: Good Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI)
• Environment: Carbon Divestment
Context: Global Warming
Global Warming over the Past Millennium
Very rapidly we have
entered uncharted
territory… Over the 20th
century, … energy
consumption increased
sixteenfold. Global
warming from the fossil
fuel greenhouse became
a major, and increasingly
dominant, factor in
climate change.
Carbon Intensities for California and Selected Countries
25
United States
Tons of CO 2 per Person
20
Canada
15
Denmark
California
United Kingdom
Germany
10
Sweden
5
Netherlands
Greece
Italy
Spain
France
Portugal
Australia
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Tons ofTons
COof2 CO
per
Thousand 1995 US Dollars
2 per Thousand 1995 U.S. Dollars
0.8
0.9
Context: Peak Oil
We know the peak is coming
… but what can we do about it?
Can Solar Energy Replace Oil?
American Consumers Do Understand
Context: BioFuels
Net Production of Biomass in the USA
www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek
The All-New DonCar!
www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport
There is no Silver Bullet.
Why Silver in the first place?
• The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize
that silver, like life, was precious and should
not be wasted.
• Specific gravity of Pb = 11.35
• Specific gravity of Ag
Ag = 10.50
Ag
Context: Social Equity
Swenson’s Law
To avoid deprivation
resulting from the
exhaustion of nonrenewable resources,
humanity must employ
conservation and
renewable resource
substitutes sufficient
to match depletion.
www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson
Consequence of Delayed Investment
Net Energy Production
120
begin investment before decline
100
80
60
40
Begin investment
during decline
20
0 0
10
20
30
40
Time
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
Energy Independence
Non-Oil, Power Exporting …
•
•
•
•
•
Countries…(Sweden, Iceland..)
Cities… (Santa Cruz?)
Colleges… (UCSC?)
Companies… (ElectroRoof, 3 BOE/day)
Citizens… (You and I?)
But “energy independence” is an elusive goal.
To get a clue, let’s go back to the future…
Thomas Edison
“I'd put my
money on the
sun and solar
energy. What a
source of power!
I hope we don't
have to wait 'til
oil and coal run
out before we
tackle that.”
(1847-1931)
www.ThomasEdison.com
Global Solar Energy Balance
Solar Energy Input
Reflected to Space Immediately
(TeraWatts) 178,000
53,000
Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat
Used to Evaporate Water (Weather)
Captured by Plant Photosynthesis
82,000
40,000
100
Total Energy Used by Human Society
13
Total Energy Used by US Society
2.5
Total Human Food Energy
0.6
www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth
www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2
TotalArea
Area
Required
a PV Power
Plant
Total
Required
for afor
Photovoltaic
Power
Plant to
the the
Total
U.S. US
Annual
Electrical
Demand
toProduce
Produce
Total
Electrical
Demand
Nevada
www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2
P109-G1055201
PV: The Growth Industry
PV
PV increases
at 50%/yr
Oil
Peak
+5
Oil declines at
4%/yr
+10
+15
www.ecotopia.com/ASES/SolarToday
The Solution: Solar PRT
Solar on Rail
www.SolarEvolution.com/SkyTran
SkyTran Solar
Solar SkyTran, with
aesthetics emphasis and
added power at stations
jPod Solar
www.jPods.com
Similar Solar Systems Exist
Economics
Calculate Solar size, cost per Mile
30
mph, operating speed
x2
sec (vehicle interval)
= 88
ft between vehicles
= 60
vehicles/mi, separated by interval specified
x2
= 120
10
÷4
= 2.5
120 x 2.5 = 300
x $6.00
$1,800,000
16
3.5
kw @ operating speed
kw needed in a mile stretch
hrs at peak operation equivalent
hrs of peak sun equivalent (Coast = 4, Desert = 6)
solar factor
kW/mile
/watt
/mi
watts / sq ft, SunPower, most efficient on market
ft wide solar panel to meet requirement
Santa Cruz Projected Growth in Travel
Calculate Passengers per Day
1.5
2,700
27,000
people/vehicle
passengers per hour at full capacity
passengers per day
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
Compare Solar to Gasoline at $2.50/gallon
25
27,000
mpg, average fleet mileage
passengers per day to match
2.0 people/vehicle
13,500
vehicles/day
x $2.50
/gallon fuel price
= $33,750
Cost to travel fleet mileage daily
$ 12,318,750 Annual cost to travel fleet mileage
$ 45,000,000
= 3.7
Cost of solar to cover fleet mileage
years, Payback for solar system to offset gasoline
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
Science
Thermodynamics of Oil
It depends …
• Pennsylvania?
• Saudi Arabia?
• Off-shore?
And it’s getting worse…
EROI = 10±
Plus …
• Ravaged land/oceans
• Greenhouse gases
• Water contamination
Thermodynamics of PV
• EROI: 5 years
• Life: 50 years
• Plus it can be
bootstrapped
And it’s getting better…
EROI = 1030 ~ electric
Environment
Corn Cars & Bean Buses?
Back to solid fuels?
A team of horses
uses 10 tons of feed
per year. How much
more would a tractor
need?
Lessons
from
History!
The original
buggy whip
protest!
Electricity. Not exactly a new idea…
… It is ephemeral, like solar power.
Can you lift it?
See it?
Touch it?
A match made in heaven.
The Electric Rail
Solar PRT
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
Solarevolution™
More at www.SolarEvolution.com
Additional Information
More about Global Conditions
More about California Conditions
More about Santa Cruz Conditions
More about PRT
More History
More about Ethanol
More about TeraWatts
More about Global Conditions:
Peak Oil
Projected Vehicle Ownership Growth
Consumption by Sector, USA
Wishful Thinking: Energy Futures
Oil Market Paradigms
“Seven
Sisters”
Conservation,
new fuels, new
technologies
OPEC
manages
market
100
90
100
90
Oil shocks
OPEC has
to meet
new
demand
80
million b/d
70
60
50
40
80
70
60
50
OPEC
FSU
OPEC
FSU
40
30
30
20
20
10
0
Non-OPEC - FSU
Non-OPEC - FSU
10
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Used with permission by Peter Wells
Cumulative World Energy Investment by Energy Use
USD $16 Trillion Investment thru 2030
$10 Trillion in Electric Power Plants
More about Global Conditions:
Global Warming
CO2 Reduction Target
•
Breakdown of CO2 Emissions
More about Global Conditions:
Conventional Vehicle Perspective
Well-to-Wheel
Measuring the efficiency and emissions
of the fuel/energy source
From “Well-to-Wheel” to LCA
LCA Example: CO2 from Materials Production
kg CO2/kg
LCA Example: CO2 from Vehicle Production
More about California
Conditions
Regulations and fiscal policies can make a difference
Total Electricity Use, per capita, 1960 - 2001
kWh
14,000
12,000
12,000
U.S.
10,000
8,000
KWh
8,000
7,000
6,000
California
4,000
2,000
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
0
More about Santa Cruz
Conditions
Santa Cruz Daily Travel Patterns
Master Transportation Study
Master Transportation Study
More about PRT
Freeway at Capacity
Vehicles Removed
PRT Passengers
PRT System
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
More History
Lest we forget …
They did bring coals to Newcastle.
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result …
...not to mention the
numerous farmers now
employed in growing
hay for horses.
Van Buren 1832
8th President 1837-1841
The Horseless Carriage
From GridLock to Gas Lines
More about BioFuels
The BioFuel
Myths and Facts
Reality or Public Relations?
For a successful technology,
reality must take precedence
over public relations, for
Nature cannot be fooled.
Richard Feynman, Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle
Challenger Accident
Appendix F ﾐ Personal observations on the reliability of the
Shuttle, June 6, 1986
US Agriculture: Crop Areas
www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek
US Agriculture: Crop Energy
Total crop energy 9.14 EJ (9quads)
www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek
More about TeraWatts
Solar Industry Response?
Goals
• 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠
• 200 gW by 2030 = 10%
How to get there?
• Federal government procurement
$100 m/year
• R&D investment $250 m/year by
2010
• “Enact, modify, establish, boost,
support, increase, strengthen,
grow…”
www.HubbertPeak.com/Apollo2
Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
50
2004
2050
45
14.5 Terawatts
220 M BOE/day
40
35
30
30 -- 60 Terawatts
450 – 900 MBOE/day
25
20
0.5%
15
www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley
al
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s
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as
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20st Century = Oil
21st Century = [Renewables]
Bi
o
n
Fu
s
The Basis of Prosperity
io
n
/F
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Source: BP & IEA
So
la
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Bi
om
io
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Fi
ss
as
G
Co
al
O
il
10
Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?
Yes!
“Think
TeraWatts
www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley
”
white
Renewable Nations