Transcript Document

Inland Empire Economic Growth . . .
Building An Expansion
John Husing, Ph.D.
Economics & Politics, Inc.
Chief Economist, IEEP
After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs …
U.S. Jobs All The Way Back & More
-600,000 Government Jobs
+10,380,000 Private Sector (119.2%)
California Job Gains/Losses
2008-2010
-1,066,400
2011-2014
+1,315,558
2014 Up
+249,158
Recovery
Defense
Cutbacks
Dot.Com
Great
Recession
Highest Unemployment Rates
Major U.S. Metro Areas
2011-2014
116,208 of 143,108 lost or 81.2%
26,900 Jobs To Go
34,475
Where Is the IE In Its Job History?
How Regional Economies Work
Secondary Tier
Economic Development … Increase The Economic Base!
Primary Tier
Poverty Rates, 2013
Children Under 18
All People
High School or Less
BA or Higher
Construction & Real Estate:
Finally Some Hope
Share of Underwater Homes Plunging
Notices of Default At Low Levels
Home Price Trends
2014,
71.3%
40.9% Above
Existing Home
-34.7%
Long Term Competitive
Price Advantage Still Exists
Home Sales Volume Stagnant
Mortgage Credit Easing A little
Credit standards on mortgage loans that your bank categorizes as prime resident
mortgages have:
All Respondents
Banks
Large Banks
Percent
Banks
Other Banks
Percent
Banks
Percent
Tightened
considerably
2
2.8%
1
2.8%
1
2.9 %
Tightened
somewhat
2
2.8%
0
0.0%
2
5.7%
Remained
basically
unchanged
50
70.4%
21
58.3%
29
82.9%
Eased
somewhat
17
23.9%
14
38.9%
3
8.6%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
71
100.0%
36
100.0 %
35
100.0 %
Eased
considerably
Total
Permits: Just A Little Hope
Why Low Volume
•Less Foreclosures
•Buyers Want or Need High Prices
•Continued Wall Street Acquisition of Large Share of Foreclosures
•Credit Hurt By Foreclosures
•Higher FICO Scores
•FHA Lowering Conforming Mortgage Ceiling From $500,000 to $350,000
•Fear
Jobs Lost 2007-2011: -68,433
Job Gain 2012-2014: 18,375
Job Deficit:
-50,158
Median Pay $51,953
3,150
Why Home Construction’s
Return Is Important
Inland Empire’s In-migration From Coastal
Counties Has Not Recovered
-27,324
Not Bringing Skills, Wealth, Income & Spending
Assessed Valuation Growing Again
Down:
-4.0%
Inflation: +7.8%
Construction & Mining Job Growth
Median Pay $51,923
Strong Industrial Growth
Industrial Construction
Logistics Flow of Goods
Port Container Volumes
Fulfillment Centers
E-Commerce Growth Rates
Year Over Year by Quarter
Logistics Job Growth
& Why It Is Important
18.8% of All Inland Jobs in 2013
15.5% So Far in 2014
Median Pay $43,911
CARB: Diesel Pollution Is Disappearing
Exhibit 6.-PM 2.5 Days over National Standard vs.
Total Square Feet of Net Industrial Absorption Since Highest PM2.5 level
Monitoring Sites
Mira Loma-Van
Buren
RiversideMagnolia
RiversideRubidoux
2001
Fontana-Arrow
Highway
Ontario-1408
Francis Street
San Bernardino4th Street
120.2
58.2
79.5
80.8
2002
88.4
92.6
73.7
67.4
88.9
2003
69.7
78.1
54.3
62.2
55.2
47.8
57.3
2004
*
2005
*
*
2006
46.2
2007
43.4
2008
39.7
31.3
*
*
*
*
22.9
*
27.2
*
*
*
25.3
9.3
*
*
*
*
12.4
15.0
19.3
19.4
9.5
2009
19.0
6.0
15.1
6.2
9.0
6.2
2010
8.0
6.3
4.0
6.6
3.2
5.9
2011
13.0
7.1
5.0
7.1
6.8
2012
7.0
7.0
10.6
0.0
0.0
2013
Change From
Highest
9.2
3.0
6.2
3.0
0.0
3.3
-37.0
-85.4
-114.0
-70.7
-79.5
-85.6
-80.1%
-96.6%
-94.8%
-95.9%
-100.0%
-96.3%
101,204,114
198,737,217
244,793,404
198,737,217
244,793,404
198,737,217
Change
Net Absorptiont
Since Highest
*
*
Manufacturing:
Could Be A Major Growth Source
California Just 1.0% of
U.S. Manufacturing Job Growth
Manufacturing Non-Job Growth!
Median Pay $48,923
Causes of Public Health Difficulties
1. Socio-Economics
40%
2. Population’s Health Behaviors
30%
3. Access to Medical Care
20%
4. Environmental
10%
90%
Source: Different Perspectives For Assigning Weights To Determinants of
Health, University of Wisconsin, Public Health Institute, 2010
What is Needed To Attack Poverty?
•Short Course Adult Training in Specific Skills
•Sectors With Few Education Barriers to Entry
• Median Incomes Approaching Middle Class Earnings
• Skill Ladders Up Which Workers Can Move To Median Incomes
• Sectors That Are Adding Jobs
Median Incomes Near To Middle Class Needs,
Minimum Entry Level Requirements
Middle Class Earnings,
Minimum Skills To Enter
Issue
Fundamentally: Blue Collar Sector Growth Needed To Allow
Marginally Educated To Access the Middle Class
• Manufacturing
• Logistics
• Construction
• Mining, Oil & Gas
EPA-AQMD Standards Eliminating Ability of these Sectors to
Grow
Poverty is Exacerbated as a Result!
Health Care
Inland Empire Underserved
Health Care Demand Set To Explode
Inland Health Care Workers Handle More People Than CA (28%)
People Without Health Insurance (2013)
836,689 (19.7, 19.0%)
People Will Age, Already 55 & Over
962,260 (23.3%, 20.5%)
Population Growth Will Resume (2000-2013)
734,580 (47.5%)
375,530 (22.0%)
ACS Enrollment Statistics: Inland Empire
Oct. 1, 2013 through Mar.31, 2014
California
Non-Subsidized
173,609
Inland Empire
12,428
Subsidy Eligible
1,222,320
110,543
Total
1,395,929
122,971
Source: Covered California
www.coveredca.com
Inland Empire represents 8.8%
of CA enrollment
Health Care Job Growth … Modest!
Median Pay $55,475
Skilled Workers Migrate Inland
For Better Homes
Higher End Homes
UPLAND
$479,341
6
$473,351
Loma Linda
$418,634
$560,458 EASTVALE
$475,498
$435,873
CORONA
$443,870
$350,479
TEMECULA
$397,927
Migration of Educated Workers
Office Absorption Follows Higher-End Workers
High-End Jobs
Follow Workers
into the Area
Office Vacancy Rates Improving
But Still Very High
24.0%
17.0%
Office Based Job Growth
High Income
Private Sector Office Jobs
How Regional Economies Work
Secondary Tier
Primary Tier
2014 Retail Sales Head For 6.6%
Above Pre-Recession Peak
15.2%
Inflation
Job Growth:
Population Serving Jobs
2011-2014
116,208 of 143,108 lost or 81.2%
26,900 Jobs To Go
34,475
Where Is the IE In Its Job History?
Job Growth By Market Area, August YTD
Forecast: Review
2014 Better Than 2013
•Construction Returning
•Logistics Strong
•Manufacturing Weak
•Health Care Set To Take-Off
•Office Sectors Modest
•Pop. Related Group Gaining
•Govt & Education Crawling
•Unemployment Drops to 8.5%
•Growth Looking Normal
•21,802 Jobs Below Pre-Recession
www.johnhusing.com