Transcript John Husing`s Power point
California’s Career Technical Education Challenge John Husing, Ph.D. Chief Economist Inland Empire Economic Partnership
After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … U.S. Jobs Now Beyond All The Way Back
U.S. & CA Unemployment History Prime Rate: 21% Cold War Ends 7.3% Great Recession 5.9%
California Job Gains/Losses 2008-2010 -1,066,400 2011-2014 +1,315,558 2014 Up +249,158 Defense Cutbacks Dot.Com
Great Recession Recovery
Regions Expanded Bay Inland Empire Los Angeles So. Coast
Huge Adult Workforce Education Issue With 1 of 2 to 1 of 3 Adults Marginally Educated
Great Disparity in Share: BA or Higher
Poverty
Much of Our Future Workforce Is Living In Poverty
Ethnicity of Poverty, One Region
Low Public Health Rankings of 58 Counties, 2014
Causes of Public Health Difficulties 1. Socio-Economics 2.
Population’s Health Behaviors 3. Access to Medical Care 4. Environmental 40% 30% 20% 10% 90% Source: Different Perspectives For Assigning Weights To Determinants of Health, University of Wisconsin, Public Health Institute, 2010
What is Needed To Attack Poverty?
•
Short Course Adult & New Entrant Training in Specific Skills
•
Sectors With Few Education Barriers to Entry
•
Median Incomes Approaching Middle Class Earnings
•
Skill Ladders Up Which Workers Can Move To Median Incomes
•
Sectors That Are Adding Jobs
Median Incomes Near To Middle Class Needs, Minimum Entry Level Requirements Middle Class Earnings, Minimum Skills To Enter Can Help Put a Household in the Middle Class
Share of Jobs: Minimal Academic Requirements to Entry
What Sectors Are Growing/Shrinking
Manufacturing
California Just 0.98% of U.S. Manufacturing Job Growth Jobs Are Becoming Available To Replace Aging Baby Boomer Technicians Median Pay: $48,923
CA Electrical Costs vs. Western States
Nestle to close Valley food Plant 360 California jobs will be lost as Hot Pockets production goes to Kentucky “In higher skilled industries they are hesitant to move because the labor force is not available anywhere. But lower skilled one, they have an easier time leaving.
That trend in California has the potential to leave lower-educated workers behind.
BUSINESS
:: Thursday, August 7, 2014 LATIMES.COM/BUSINESS Companies Can Leave or Not Come … It is the Workers Who Pay the Price
Logistics
Port Container Volumes
Modern Manufacturing Is Logistics!
Fulfillment Centers
E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter Strong Job Creation Median Pay = $43,911
CARB: Diesel Pollution Is Disappearing Exhibit 6.-PM 2.5 Days over National Standard vs. Total Square Feet of Net Industrial Absorption Since Highest PM2.5 level Monitoring Sites Mira Loma-Van Buren Riverside Magnolia Riverside Rubidoux Fontana-Arrow Highway Ontario-1408 Francis Street San Bernardino 4th Street
2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013
Change From Highest Change Net Absorptiont Since Highest * * * * 46.2
43.4
* 19.0
8.0
13.0
7.0
* 9.2
-37.0
-80.1% 101,204,114
88.4
69.7
47.8
31.3
* * 12.4
6.0
6.3
7.1
3.0
-85.4
-96.6% 198,737,217
120.2
92.6
78.1
57.3
39.7
* 15.0
15.1
4.0
5.0
7.0
6.2
-114.0
-94.8% 244,793,404
* 58.2
73.7
54.3
* 22.9
27.2
* * 19.3
6.2
6.6
7.1
10.6
3.0
-70.7
-95.9% 198,737,217
79.5
67.4
62.2
* 25.3
19.4
9.0
3.2
6.8
0.0
0.0
* * * -79.5
-100.0% 244,793,404
80.8
88.9
55.2
9.3
9.5
6.2
5.9
0.0
3.3
-85.6
-96.3% 198,737,217
Construction & Real Estate: Finally A Recovery
Share of Underwater Homes Plunging
Negative Equity: CA is now Average
Notices of Default At Low Levels
Home Price Trends 2014, 37.7% Above Existing Home -32.2% 70.1%
BUSINESS
Thursday, August 7, 2014 LATIMES.COM/BUSINESS
New home shrinkage
Pared-down project illustrates a cause of limited housing affordability “Original plans called for a multifamily development with three times as many homes, with many more affordable options.” Now with plans modified to include 208 single family homes, prices will range from about $400,000 to 1.1 million.” NIMBY & Lawyer power under what was suppose to be the CA Environmental Quality Act
Construction Prognosis Construction Sector Finally Strengthening Companies Are Having Trouble Finding Workers Median Pay = $51,923
Health Care
Physician Coverage An Issue In Many Places
Health Care Demand Set To Explode People Without Health Insurance (2013) 6,500,179 (17.2%) People Will Age, Already 55 & Over 9,197,344 (24.0%) Population Growth Will Resume (2000-14) 4,093,385 (12.1%)
ACS Enrollment Statistics Oct. 1, 2013 through Mar.31, 2014 California
173,609 Non-Subsidized Subsidy Eligible 1,222,320
Total 1,395,929
Source: Covered California www.coveredca.com
Medi-Cal Almost 3-Times That Amount
Health Care Prognosis Sector Is Working Through The Implications of the ACA Sector Will Undergo Tremendous Change Para-Professions/Technicians Will See Much of the Workload Median Pay = $55,475
Other Sectors Retail Management Restaurant Management Office Assistant Escrow, Tile, Insurance, Real Estate Financial Management
April 28, 2014 by Courtney M. Fowler California career technical education funding struggles to make the grade Shulock and her colleagues Jodi Lewis and Connie Tan created their study, “
Workforce Investments: State Strategies to Preserve Higher Cost Career Education
” to analyze the performance of CTE programs at colleges in 20 states around the country. “California is really lacking in terms of the importance that is being placed on CTE programs,” Shulock said. “In other states they want to support and cultivate them so that they can continue to grow, but the problem is that here we don’t seem to see how important they are so, we’re a century behind other states in an industry that important.”
Who Is Hurt … If We Continue To Have Career Tech Under Funded?
Workers Among the 9,836,900 Adults Needing Training To Reach the Middle class
A Final Thought … Given The Importance of Career Technical Education Those Running the Efforts on Campuses Should Report Directly to their CEOs … Otherwise They are Lost in the Academic Power Struggle