Transcript Population and Labor Force Projections for New Jersey

County Population and Labor Force
Projections:
New Jersey, 2008 to 2018
County Projections
Procedures
 Apply state fertility and mortality rates by age-race-
sex to individual counties.
 Project net migration based on demand and supply
of county labor force.
 Distribute county net total migration to individual
age-race-sex cohorts according to recent pattern.
 Control sum of 21 counties to state totals at each
step.
Population Projections for New Jersey
Overview
Rate of Population Growth: 1990-2018
2008-2018
0.97%
2000-2008
0.98%
1990-2000
1.24%
2008-2018
0.38%
2000-2008
0.37%
1990-2000
0.85%
• New Jersey’s 2008-2018 population growth will continue to
lag behind the nation as a whole.
County Population: 2008 and 2018
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
2008
2018
400000
300000
200000
100000
SU
S
HU
N
WA
R
CA
P
SA
L
UN
I
MO
R
PA
S
BU
R
ME
R
SO
M
GL
O
AT
L
CU
M
ES
S
MO
N
OC
E
HU
D
CA
M
BE
R
MI
D
0
• Population is projected to increase in all counties except Cape
May, with various growth rate, from 2008 to 2018.
Annualized Population Growth Rate by Region
Region (counties)
2000-2008
2008-2018
0.35%
0.38%
-0.07%
0.09%
Northwestern (Sussex, Warren)
0.71%
0.74%
Central (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex,
Somerset)
0.64%
0.61%
Coastal (Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth,
Ocean)
0.78%
0.64%
Southern (Burlington, Camden, Cumberland,
Gloucester, Salem)
0.65%
0.52%
State Total
Northern (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris,
Passaic, Union)
Population Growth by Region
• The Coastal and Central regions will continue
to lead the state’s population growth from
2008 to 2018.
• The rate of population growth in the Northern
region is projected to be slower than other
regions between 2008 and 2018.
Population Growth by Region
• The rural Northwestern counties will have
substantial population growth from their
small population bases.
• Coastal region’s Ocean County is projected
to be the fastest growing county in New
Jersey, followed by Gloucester County in
the Southern region.
Population Change (%) by County: New Jersey, 2008-2018
SUSSEX
7.0%
PASSAIC
0.5%
BERGEN
0.6%
MORRIS
4.4%
WARREN
8.6%
ESSEX
0.0%
HUDSON
0.3%
UNION
0.4%
HUNTERDON SOMERSET
7.4%
8.9%
Percent Change
<0.5
MIDDLESEX
5.8%
0.6 - 4.0
4.1 - 6.0
MERCER
4.7%
6.1 - 8.0
MONMOUTH
4.5%
>8.0
New Jersey = 3.9%
BURLINGTON
6.3%
CAMDEN
2.3%
GLOUCESTER
9.8%
SALEM
1.5%
ATLANTIC
6.4%
CUMBERLAND
6.0%
CAPE MAY
-2.6%
OCEAN
10.5%
Population Projections by county
• Bergen County will continue to be the state’s
most populous county.
• By 2018, Ocean will replace Hudson as the
state’s fifth most populous county; while Morris
(ranked 10th in 2008) and Passaic (ranked 9th in
2008) will exchange their population rankings in
the state.
• Salem will continue to be the least populous
county, and Cape May will be the only other
county with less than 100,000 residents in New
Jersey by 2018.
Population Projections for New Jersey
Overview
Hispanics, Multiracial and
Other Races are projected to
grow fast.
NJ Population Growth by Race: 2008-2018
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
32.6%
29.8%
23.1%
33.3%
5.4%
1.2%
White
Black
Asian
Others
2+Races Hispanic
Projections of County Population by Race
• The share of non-Hispanic Whites in the state’s
population is projected to decline gradually.
• Cape May County is projected to have the highest
proportion of non-Hispanic whites in its population
(86% in 2018).
• By 2018, non-Hispanic whites will account for
just about one-third of Essex and Hudson counties’
residents.
Projections of County Population by Race
• Essex County will continue to have the highest
proportion of African Americans (41% by 2018).
• Approximately one-half (49.8%) of the state’s black
population will be residing in just four counties by
2018: Essex, Camden, Union and Middlesex.
• Hunterdon, Morris, Ocean and Sussex counties
will continue to have less than 5% blacks among
their resident population.
Projections of County Population by Race
• The “other races” population is projected to grow
faster than their white and black counterparts in
every county.
• Middlesex, Bergen and Hudson counties are
projected to account for nearly one-half of the
state’s total “other races” population in 2018.
Approximately one in every four (24%) Middlesex
County residents will be persons of “other races” by
2018.
Projections of County Population by Race
• However, the
proportion of “other
races” population will
continue to remain
low in southern rural
counties and in the
coastal “retirement”
communities.
Proportion of “other races”
Population in Selected Counties
County
2008
2018
Middlesex
19.5% 24.4%
Bergen
14.8% 19.0%
Somerset
12.9% 18.3%
Hudson
12.6% 15.0%
Cumberland
2.4%
2.6%
Ocean
2.0%
2.5%
Salem
1.3%
1.5%
Cape May
1.1%
1.6%
Percent of Nonwhite Population by County: New Jersey, 2018
SUSSEX
17.7
PASSAIC
56.8
BERGEN
44.8
MORRIS
30.6
WARREN
23.2
Percent Nonwhite
ESSEX
66.6
HUDSON
66.9
UNION
58.2
HUNTERDON SOMERSET
20.6
44
< 20.0
20.1 - 29.0
MIDDLESEX
56.1
29.1 - 43.0
43.1 - 55.0
MERCER
50.2
> 55.0
MONMOUTH
26.5
New Jersey= 43.5%
BURLINGTON
33.8
CAMDEN
43.1
GLOUCESTER
21.5
SALEM
24.9
ATLANTIC
42.1
CUMBERLAND
52.3
CAPE MAY
14.3
OCEAN
15.8
Projections of County Population by Hispanic origin
• Hudson and Passaic counties will continue to have
the largest number and highest proportion of
Hispanic population in the state.
• Middlesex, Bergen, Essex and Union counties are
also projected to have large number of Hispanics.
• Together, these six counties will account for
about two-third (64.5%) of the state’s total
Hispanics by 2018.
Percent of Hispanic Population by County: New Jersey, 2018
SUSSEX
9.7
PASSAIC
39.7
BERGEN
19.5
MORRIS
14.3
WARREN
10.9
Percent Hispanic
ESSEX
22.1
HUDSON
40.2
UNION
31
HUNTERDON SOMERSET
7.9
15.7
< 9.0
9.1 - 14.9
MIDDLESEX
21.3
15.0 - 18.9
19.0 - 29.9
MERCER
16.9
> 30.0
MONMOUTH
11.9
New Jersey= 19.3%
BURLINGTON
7.7
CAMDEN
15.6
GLOUCESTER
5.3
SALEM
7.6
ATLANTIC
17.4
CUMBERLAND
29.3
CAPE MAY
7.1
OCEAN
9.1
Population Projections for New Jersey
Overview
New Jersey Population by Age: 2008 and 2018
85+
85+
75-79
75-79
80-84
80-84
70-74
70-74
65-69
65-69
Age
60-64
60-64
55-59
55-59
50-54
50-54
45-49
45-49
40-44
40-44
35-39
35-39
30-34
30-34
25-29
25-29
20-24
20-24
15-19
15-19
10-14
5-9
5-9
0-4
0-4
600
400
2008
200
200
0
(Population in thousands)
400
2018
600
Projections of County Population by Age
• Cape May County is projected to have the highest
proportion (26.2%) of elderly population in the state by
2018, followed by Ocean County (23.8%).
• Bergen, Ocean, Middlesex, and Monmouth counties will
have more than 100,000 senior citizens (65 or older) each
by 2018. Together, these four counties will account for
37.5% of the state’s total elderly population.
• Hudson County (11.8%) will have the lowest
proportion of seniors among the state’s 21 counties by
2018.
Percent of Elderly Population by County: New Jersey, 2018
SUSSEX
15.6
PASSAIC
14.9
BERGEN
17
MORRIS
16.2
WARREN
16.1
Percent Elderly
ESSEX
13
HUDSON
11.8
UNION
13.8
HUNTERDON SOMERSET
15.2
15.6
< 14.0
14.1 - 14.9
MIDDLESEX
14.5
15.0 - 15.9
16.0 - 16.9
MERCER
14.6
> 17.0
MONMOUTH
16.5
New Jersey= 15.8%
BURLINGTON
16
CAMDEN
15.2
GLOUCESTER
15.3
SALEM
17.3
ATLANTIC
18.1
CUMBERLAND
14.8
CAPE MAY
26.2
OCEAN
23.8
Projections of County Population by Sex
• Females will continue
to outnumber males in
almost every county
except Cumberland and
Hunterdon.
Sex Ratio (males per 100 females)
in Selected Counties
County
2008
2018
Cape May
92.6
92.0
Ocean
92.0
93.4
• The sex ratio ranges
Essex
93.2
95.3
from Cape May
County’s 92.0 to
Cumberland County’s
106.8 in the year 2018.
Sussex
99.2
99.3
Hunterdon
100.0
100.3
Cumberland
106.9
106.8
New Jersey
96.0
97.2
Labor Force Projections for New Jersey
Overview
 New Jersey’s civilian labor force is projected to grow slower
than its population from 2008 to 2018.
Growth of Population and Labor Force: New Jersey, 1980 - 2028
2018-2028
2008-2018
4.2%
2.9%
3.9%
3.2%
11.8%
1990-2008
10.0%
5.2%
1980-1990
0%
Population
Labor Force
16.5%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Labor Force Projections by County
Civilian Labor Force by County: 2008 and 2018
L
SA
P
CA
R
WA
M
CU
N
HU
S
SU
L
AT
O
GL
2018
2008
• Labor force is projected to
increase in sixteen counties from
2008 to 2018, but will decline
somewhat in Cape May, Essex,
Hudson Passaic and Union.
M
SO
R
ME
S
PA
R
BU
I
UN
M
CA
R
MO
E
OC
D
HU
N
MO
S
ES
D
MI
R
BE
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Labor Force Projections by County
• Labor Force in Gloucester and Ocean counties is
projected to grow faster than other counties during
the 2008-2018 period.
• Parallel to the population growth pattern, the
Coastal region will continue to lead the state’s
labor force growth while growth rate in the
Northern regions is projected to below average.
Annualized Labor Force Growth Rate by Region
Region (counties)
2000-2008
2008-2018
State Total
0.90%
0.32%
Northern (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris,
Passaic, Union)
0.57%
0.02%
Northwestern (Sussex, Warren)
1.28%
0.79%
Central (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex,
Somerset)
0.96%
0.49%
Coastal (Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth,
Ocean)
1.34%
0.58%
Southern (Burlington, Camden, Cumberland,
Gloucester, Salem)
1.18%
0.53%
Labor Force Projections by Age
• As “baby boomers” continue to age, the share of
the state’s “older workers” (labor force 55 years or
older) is projected to reach 25.1% by 2018, from
19.1% in 2008.
• By 2018, the “older worker’s” share of the county
labor force will range from 18.8% in Hudson County
to more than 30% in Cape May and Ocean counties.
Labor Force Projections by Sex
• Women’s share of the state’s labor force is
projected to virtually unchanged at 47% from 2008
to 2018.
• The projected proportion of females in the labor
force ranged from 46% in Hunterdon County to 49%
in Essex County as of 2018.
County Labor Force Projections by Race
• The nonwhite, especially the “other races” labor
force, is projected to increase substantially faster
than their white counterpart in all counties from
2008 to 2018.
• Consequently, the shares of whites in the labor force
will shrink in each county while nonwhites (esp.
“other races”) are projected to increase their shares.
County Labor Force Projections by Race
• The proportion of
“Other Races” labor
force varies by county.
It ranges from 1.5%
in Salem County to
24.4% in Middlesex
County by the year
2018.
Proportion of “other races” Labor
Force in Selected Counties
County
2008
2018
State Total
8.9%
11.2%
Middlesex
20.6%
24.4%
Bergen
16.3%
20.1%
Somerset
13.8%
19.3%
Cumberland
2.7%
2.9%
Ocean
2.2%
2.6%
Cape may
1.2%
1.7%
Salem
1.5%
1.5%
County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin
• Hispanics will account for about 95% of the
state’s labor force growth between 2008 and 2018.
• Hispanic labor force is projected to grow faster
than their non-Hispanic counterparts in all counties,
except Hudson, from 2008 to 2018.
County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin
• The proportion of Hispanics in the labor force
ranged from 3.6% in Gloucester County to 38.7%
in Hudson County as of 2008. The proportion in
these two counties will be 4.8% and 37.9%,
respectively, in 2018.
• About 69% of New Jersey’s Hispanic labor force
were concentrated in six counties in 2008: Hudson,
Passaic, Bergen, Middlesex, Essex and Union.
These six counties will still have 65% of the state’s
Hispanic labor force by 2018.
THE END
Comments Welcomed
Contact:
Sen-Yuan Wu
@ 609-292-0077 (phone)
[email protected] (e-mail)
http://lwd.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/ (URL)