Transcript Population and Labor Force Projections for New Jersey

County Population and Labor Force
Projections:
New Jersey, 2004 to 2014
NJSDC Network Meeting
June 6, 2007
County Projections
Procedures
 Apply state fertility and mortality rates by age-race-
sex to individual counties.
 Project net migration based on demand and supply
of county labor force.
 Distribute county net total migration to individual
age-race-sex cohorts according to recent pattern.
 Control sum of 21 counties to state totals at each
step.
Population Projections for New Jersey
Overview
Rate of Population Growth: 1990-2014
0.85%
2004-2014
1.01%
2000-2004
1.24%
1990-2000
2004-2014
2000-2004
1990-2000
0.56%
0.75%
0.85%
 New Jersey’s 2004-2014 population growth will continue to
lag behind the nation as a whole.
County Population: 2004 and 2014
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
2004
400000
2014
300000
200000
100000
Sal
Hu
n
Wa
r
Ca
p
m
Cu
Su
s
Atl
Glo
So
m
Me
r
r
Bu
Un
i
Ca
m
Mo
r
Pas
Ess
Mo
n
Hu
d
Oc
e
Mi
d
Be
r
0
• Population is projected to increase in all counties, except Cape
May, from 2004 to 2014.
Population Growth by Region
• The central and coastal regions will continue
to lead the state’s population growth from
2004 to 2014.
• The rate of population growth in the northern
region is projected to lag behind average
between 2004 and 2014.
Annualized Population Growth Rate by Region
Region (counties)
1994-2004
2004-2014
State Total
0.81%
0.56%
Northern (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris,
Passaic, Union)
0.51%
0.39%
Northwestern (Sussex, Warren)
1.19%
0.91%
Central (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex,
Somerset)
1.22%
0.65%
Coastal (Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth,
Ocean)
1.26%
0.75%
Southern (Burlington, Camden, Cumberland,
Gloucester, Salem)
0.62%
0. 66%
Population Growth by Region
• The rural northwestern counties will have
substantial population growth from their
small population bases.
• Coastal region’s Ocean County is projected
to be the fastest growing county in New
Jersey, followed by Gloucester County in
the southern region.
Rate of Population Growth:
New Jersey Counties, 2004-2014
SUS
WAR
PAS
BER
MOR
ESS
HUD
UNI
HUN SOM
MID
MER
MON
BUR
OCE
CAM
GLO
SAL
ATL
CUM
CAP
State growth rate = 5.8%
Percent Growth
<4.0%
4% - 5.8%
5.9% - 8.0%
>8.0%
Population Projections by county
• Bergen County will continue to be the state’s
most populous county.
• By 2014, Middlesex will replace Essex as the
state’s second most populous county; while
Morris (ranked 10th in 2004) and Passaic (ranked
9th in 2004) will exchange their population
rankings in the state.
• Salem County will be the only county with less
than 100,000 residents in New Jersey by 2014.
Population Projections for New Jersey
Overview
Hispanics and Other Races are
projected to grow faster than
their non-Hispanic and White
and Black counterparts.
NJ Population Growth by Race: 2004-2014
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
37.9%
38.2%
29.6%
6.7%
2.0%
White
Black
Other
2+Races
Hispanic
Projections of County Population by Race
• White’s share of the state’s population is projected
to decline gradually.
• Cape May County is projected to continue to have
the highest proportion of whites in its population
(93.3% in 2014).
• Essex County will continue to have the lowest
proportion of whites in its population (51.1% by
2014).
Projections of County Population by Race
• Essex County will continue to have the highest
proportion of African Americans (41.9% by 2014).
• Approximately one-half (51%) of the state’s black
population will be residing in just four counties by
2014: Essex, Union, Camden and Hudson.
• Sussex, Morris and Ocean counties will continue
to have no more than 4% blacks among their
resident population.
Projections of County Population by Race
• The “other races” population is projected to grow
faster than their white and black counterparts in
every county.
• Middlesex and Bergen counties are projected to
account for 40% of the state’s total “other races”
population in 2014. More than one in every five
Middlesex County residents will be persons of
“other races” by 2014.
Projections of County Population by Race
• However, the
proportion of “other
races” population will
continue to remain
low in southern rural
counties and in the
coastal “retirement”
communities.
Proportion of “other races”
Population in Selected Counties
County
2004
2014
Middlesex
17.8% 23.2%
Bergen
13.4% 17.7%
Hudson
11.5% 12.7%
Somerset
11.2% 16.5%
Cumberland
2.4%
2.8%
Ocean
1.8%
2.4%
Salem
1.1%
1.6%
Cape May
0.9%
1.2%
Proportion of Nonwhite Population:
New Jersey Counties, 2014
SUS
WAR
PAS
BER
MOR
ESS
HUD
UNI
HUN SOM
MID
MER
MON
BUR
OCE
CAM
GLO
SAL
ATL
CUM
CAP
State average = 25.8%
Percent Nonwhite
<10%
10% - 20%
20% - 30%
>30%
Projections of County Population by Hispanic origin
• Hudson and Passaic counties will continue to have
the largest number and highest proportion of
Hispanic population in the state.
• Essex, Bergen, Union and Middlesex counties are
also projected to have large number of Hispanics.
• Together, these six counties will account for 68%
of the state’s total Hispanics by 2014.
Proportion of Hispanic Population:
New Jersey Counties, 2014
SUS
WAR
PAS
BER
MOR
ESS
HUD
UNI
HUN SOM
MID
MER
MON
BUR
OCE
CAM
GLO
SAL
ATL
CUM
CAP
State average = 18.2%
Percent Hispanic
<10%
10% - 20%
20% - 30%
>30%
Population Projections for New Jersey
Overview
• The “baby boom”
generation (aged
50-68 in 2014) and
their children
(born between
1977 and 1994)
will continue to be
the largest age
cohorts of the
state’s population.
New Jersey Population by Age: 2004 and 2014
Age
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
600
2004
400
200
0
200
400
600
(Population in thousands) 2014
Projections of County Population by Age
• Cape May County is projected to have the highest
proportion (20.9%) of elderly population in the state by
2014, followed by Ocean County (19.3%).
• Bergen, Ocean, Middlesex and Essex counties will
continue to have the largest number of senior citizens (65
or older). However, these four counties’ share of the state’s
total elderly population will decline somewhat from 38.7%
in 2004 to 36.5% in 2014.
• Hudson County (12.0%) will have the lowest
proportion of seniors among the state’s 21 counties by
2014.
Proportion of Population 65 Years and Older:
New Jersey Counties, 2014
SUS
WAR
PAS
BER
MOR
ESS
HUD
UNI
HUN SOM
MID
MER
MON
BUR
OCE
CAM
GLO
SAL
ATL
CUM
CAP
Statewide average = 14.2%
Percent Elderly Population
<13%
13% -14%
14% - 15%
15 % - 16%
>16%
Projections of County Population by Sex
• Females will continue
to outnumber males in
every county except
Cumberland.
• The sex ratio ranges
from Ocean County’s
91.1 to Cumberland
County’s 104.4 in the
year 2014.
Sex Ratio (males per 100 females)
in Selected Counties
County
2004
2014
Ocean
90.9
91.1
Cape May
92.9
92.1
Hudson
97.2
97.7
Sussex
98.4
98.1
Cumberland
104.6
104.4
New Jersey
94.9
95.2
Labor Force Projections for New Jersey
Overview
 New Jersey’s civilian labor force is projected to grow faster
than its population from 2004 to 2014.
Growth of Population and Labor Force: New Jersey, 1980 - 2014
5.8%
2004-2014
6.8%
12.4%
1990-2004
5.2%
1980-1990
0%
Population
Labor Force
6.9%
16.5%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Labor Force Projections by County
Civilian Labor Force by County: 2004 and 2014
L
SA
P
CA
R
WA
M
CU
N
HU
S
SU
L
AT
O
GL
2014
2004
• Labor force is projected to
increase in every county from
2004 to 2014.
M
SO
R
ME
S
PA
R
BU
M
CA
I
UN
R
MO
E
OC
D
HU
N
MO
S
ES
D
MI
R
BE
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Labor Force Projections by County
• Labor Force in Ocean and Gloucester counties is
projected to grow faster than other counties during
the 2004-2014 period.
• Parallel to the population growth pattern, the
coastal region will continue to lead the state’s
labor force growth while growth in the northern
and southern regions is projected to accelerate.
Annualized Labor Force Growth Rate by Region
Region (counties)
1990-2004
2004-2014
State Total
0.48%
0.66%
Northern (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris,
Passaic, Union)
-0.05%
0.43%
Northwestern (Sussex, Warren)
1.27%
1.01%
Central (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex,
Somerset)
0.82%
0.59%
Coastal (Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth,
Ocean)
1.16%
1.10%
Southern (Burlington, Camden, Cumberland,
Gloucester, Salem)
0.70%
0.81%
Labor Force Projections by Age
• As “baby boomers” continue to age, the share of
the state’s “older workers” (labor force 55 years or
older) is projected to reach 21.4% by 2014, from
16.8% in 2004.
• By 2014, the “older worker’s” share of the county
labor force will range from 18.7% in Hudson County
to 27.5% in Cape May County.
Labor Force Projections by Sex
• Women’s share of the state’s labor force is
projected to increase gradually from 46.6% in 2004
to 47.2% in 2014.
• The projected proportion of females in the labor
force ranged from 45.4% in Morris County to 50.0%
in Essex County as of 2014.
County Labor Force Projections by Race
• The nonwhite, especially the “other races” labor
force, is projected to increase substantially faster
than their white counterpart in all counties from
2004 to 2014.
• Consequently, the shares of whites in the labor force
will shrink in each county while nonwhites (esp.
“other races”) are projected to increase their shares.
County Labor Force Projections by Race
• The proportion of
“Other Races” labor
force varies by county.
It ranges from 1.3%
in Cape May County
to 21.8% in
Middlesex County by
the year 2014.
Proportion of “other races” Labor
Force in Selected Counties
County
2004
2014
State Total
7.0%
9.2%
Middlesex
16.7%
21.8%
Bergen
12.6%
17.1%
Somerset
10.0%
15.0%
Ocean
1.8%
2.4%
Salem
1.3%
1.8%
Cape May
0.9%
1.3%
County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin
• Hispanics will account for about two-thirds
(66.2%) of the state’s labor force growth between
2004 and 2014.
• Hispanic labor force is projected to grow faster
than their non-Hispanic counterparts in all counties
from 2004 to 2014.
County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin
• The proportion of Hispanics in the labor force
ranged from 2.7% in Gloucester County to 40.9%
in Hudson County as of 2004. The proportion in
these two counties will increase to 3.6% and
43.5%, respectively, in 2014.
• Approximately 70% of New Jersey’s Hispanic
labor force were concentrated in six counties in
2004: Hudson, Passaic, Bergen, Union, Middlesex
and Essex. These six counties will still have 67% of
the state’s Hispanic labor force by 2014.
THE END
Comments Welcomed
Contact:
Sen-Yuan Wu
@ 609-292-0077 (phone)
[email protected] (e-mail)
www.nj.gov/labor/lra (URL)