Transcript Slide 1
Labour Wellness & Stability: Steps Towards a Healthier Outcome for All Dr Azar Jammine Director & Chief Economist of Econometrix IMF Forecasts for Growth of Sub-Saharan Countries 2014-2019 Ethiopia 8.1 Mozambique 8.0 Libya 7.8 Mauritania 7.6 Côte d'Ivoire 7.4 Democratic Republic of the Congo 7.4 Rwanda 7.1 Nigeria 7.0 Tanzania 7.0 Zambia 6.9 Burkina Faso 6.8 Uganda 6.5 Kenya 6.3 Angola 5.9 Malawi 5.4 5.3 Ghana Lesotho 5.1 Mali 5.0 5.0 Senegal 4.9 Morocco Namibia 4.5 Guinea 4.4 4.1 Botswana Mauritius 3.9 3.9 Zimbabwe Algeria 3.9 Egypt 3.6 South Africa 2.4 Swaziland 1.9 Source: IMF WEO, Oct14 Current Account % of GDP The Economist Poll 2014 Singapore 19.7 Taiwan 11.8 Malaysia 6.0 South Korea 5.8 Russia 3.3 Philippines 3.0 Thailand 2.6 Hungary 2.0 China 2.0 Israel 1.8 Venezuela 1.5 Czech Republic 0.2 Argentina -0.9 Poland -1.2 Mexico -1.7 Chile -1.9 Egypt -2.5 India -2.8 Indonesia -3.5 Brazil -3.6 Colombia -3.7 Peru -4.8 RSA -5.4 Turkey -5.8 Economist: 7 Oct 2014 Exchange rate : Rand/US$ 14 C 12 D B 10 8 6 4 2 Source: Omega A Trade balance for the automotive industry Imports (R billion) Exports (R billion) New forex usage (R billion) 126.7 (136.1) 102.7 (86.9) -24.0 (-49.2) EU 60.6 (62.6) 35.1 (34.0) -25.5 (-28.6) NAFTA 7.5 (10.7) 19.1 (20.9) 11.6 (10.2) Africa (incl. SADC) 0.5 (0.2) 30.2 (17.8) 29.7 (17.6) MERCOSUR 3.8 (4.5) 2.0 (1.5) -1.8 (-3.0) Other regions 54.3 (58.1) 16.3 (12.7) -38.0 (-45.4) 2013 (2012) Source: AIEC, SARS CPI Inflation 14 12 10 % 8 6 4 2 0 08 Source: Statistics South Africa 09 10 11 12 13 14 Number of Employees Gain/Loss of Jobs for December of each year Formal Sector (Non-agriculture) 2006 - 2013 TOTAL 273 000 Mining 24 000 Manufacturing Electricity, Gas & Water -186 000 9 000 Construction -39 000 Trade, Hotels & Non-Financial Services -7 000 Transport & Communications 12 000 Financial & Business Services 49 000 Community Services 411 000 Source: Quarterly Employment Survey Global Competitiveness Index Rank 2014/2015 Score (1-7) GCI 2014-2015 (out of 144) 56 4.4 GCI 2013-2014 (out of 148) 53 4.4 GDI 2006-2007 (out of 125) 45 4.4 Sample Size 144 Health & primary education 132 4.0 Quality of math and science education 144 1.9 Labour market efficiency 113 3.8 Cooperation in labor-employer relations 144 2.5 Source: The Global Competitiveness Report Causes of Unemployment, Poverty & Inequality • Inadequacy of education & skills development • Adversarial labour market environment • Relatively weak entrepreneurship & SMME environment Matric Results Public Schools 2013 % of Total who started in 2002 1 286 591 100.0 No writing matric 562 112 43.7 No passing matric 439 779 34.2 No receiving university endorsement 171 755 13.3 No receiving university technology endorsement 173 292 13.5 Maths > 30% 142 666 11.1 Started School 12 yrs earlier Source: Department of Education Reasons for Militancy of Strikes Poor credit position of miners Union rivalry Rising inequality Attempt to overthrow existing capitalistic structure Thank you NDP Proposals to Increase Employment & Growth • Improve skills base • Raise exports • Increase size & effectiveness of innovation system • Improve functioning of labour market • Support small businesses • Reduce regulatory burden • Increase investment in social & economic infrastructure • Improve capacity of the state • Greater cooperation between public & private sectors • Corruption Will MTSF be implemented? • • • • • • • • • A medium term version of the NDP to cover period 2014-19 In line with ANC electoral mandate prioritising: Radical economic transformation, rapid economic growth & job creation Rural development, land & agrarian reform & food security Ensuring access to adequate human settlements & quality basic services Improving quality of & expanding access to education & training Ensuring quality healthcare & social security for all Fighting corruption & crime Social cohesion & nation building Purportedly two overarching strategic themes: radical economic transformation & improving service delivery To include focus on New Growth Path, National Infrastructure Plan, Industrial Policy Action Plan, Social Security & Retirement Reform, National Health Insurance Three priorities: decent work, education & capacity of the state Target of building up to 5% growth by 2019 & capital formation 25% of GDP by 2019 (from 19% currently) Retains objective of 5m new jobs from 2010-2020, but promises 6m job opportunities over next 5 years “Target will require vigorous action to reduce concentration & diversify the economy, whilst ensuring adequate infrastructure, skills & appropriate regulatory framework” Detailed target improvement in each sphere of government Contradictions in implementation of MTSF • • • • • • • • • • • • Emphasis on critical role of private sector, but private sector not being embraced properly by govt in practice Emphasis on elimination of unnecessary regulatory burdens but these are being compounded in practice Emphasis on small business development but stricter enforcement of BBBEE affects small business more than big business Calls for reduction in business concentration, but regulations driving greater concentration Government to intervene in assisting in resolving workplace conflict resolution, but experience with NUMSA strike leaves out small business Introduction of minimum wage more damaging to small than big business Enhanced youth employment through employment tax incentive being opposed by alliance partners Emphasis on reducing corruption which is seen as impeding service delivery, but reluctance of government to act against it Emphasis on improved accountability & conviction rates & respect for independence of anti-corruption agencies and the constitution, but Public Protector is being vilified from within government Emphasis on need for stability in leadership, yet Cabinet reshuffle fairly dramatic Encouragement of in-migration of skills to help education but access to work permits ever more difficult Encouragement of tourism as jobs driver, but stricter visa regulations jeopardising tourism