Measuring the Contributions of Productivity and the Terms of Trade to Australian Economic Welfare OECD Workshop on Productivity Analysis and Measurement; Bern October 17,
Download ReportTranscript Measuring the Contributions of Productivity and the Terms of Trade to Australian Economic Welfare OECD Workshop on Productivity Analysis and Measurement; Bern October 17,
Measuring the Contributions of Productivity and the Terms of Trade to Australian Economic Welfare
OECD Workshop on Productivity Analysis and Measurement; Bern October 17, 2006 Erwin Diewert and Denis Lawrence
Introduction
We ask two questions:
Have changes in Australia’s Terms of Trade improved economic welfare?
What is the ‘right’ measure of economic welfare to look at?
To answer the first question, we use the framework in Diewert and Morrison, Economic Journal 1986
To answer the second question, we suggest using a net real income measure
Terms of Trade Problem
Market sector GDP function: g t (P,x)
max y {P
y : (y,x) belongs to S t }
Value of outputs equals value of inputs in period t:
g t (P t ,x t ) = P t
y t = W t
x t ; y t is output; x t is input; Real income generated by market sector in period t is
t
W t
x t /P C t = w t
x t = g t (p t , x t ) = P t
y t /P C t = p t
y t where P C t is consumption price This is the amount of consumption period t income can buy and this will be our suggested economic welfare measure.
Identifying the Contributions
The main determinants of growth in real income generated by the market sector of the economy are:
Technical progress or improvements in Total Factor Productivity; Growth in domestic output prices or the prices of internationally traded goods and services relative to the price of consumption; and Growth in primary inputs.
We need a way of identifying the effect of each of these factors in isolation, ie what would have happened to real income if only each of these changes had occurred separately and all else remained the same?
Productivity Growth
Definition of a family of period t productivity growth factors:
(p,x,t)
g t (p,x)/g t-1 (p,x)
Laspeyres type measure:
L t
(p t-1 ,x t-1 ,t)
g t (p t-1 ,x t-1 )/g t-1 (p t-1 ,x t-1 )
Paasche type measure:
P t
(p t ,x t ,t)
g t (p t ,x t )/g t-1 (p t ,x t )
Fisher type measure:
t
[
L t
P t ] 1/2
But how can we empirically implement the above theoretical definitions? It can be done by assuming a translog technology.
Real Output Price Growth Factors
Definition of a family of period t real output price growth factors:
(p t-1 ,p t ,x,s)
g s (p t ,x)/g s (p t-1 ,x)
Laspeyres type measure:
L t
(p t-1 ,p t ,x t-1 ,t-1)
g t-1 (p t ,x t-1 )/g t-1 (p t-1 ,x t-1 ).
Paasche type measure:
P t
(p t-1 ,p t ,x t ,t)
g t (p t ,x t )/g t (p t-1 ,x t ).
Fisher type measure:
t
[
L t
P t ] 1/2
Gives increase in real income due to changes in real output prices
Input Quantity Growth Factors
Definition of a family of period t input quantity growth factors:
(x t-1 ,x t ,p,s)
g s (p,x t )/g s (p,x t-1 )
Laspeyres type measure:
L t
(x t-1 ,x t ,p t-1 ,t-1)
g t-1 (p t-1 ,x t )/g t-1 (p t-1 ,x t-1 ).
Paasche type measure:
P t
(x t-1 ,x t ,p t ,t)
g t (p t ,x t )/g t (p t ,x t-1 ).
Fisher type measure:
t
[
L t
P t ] 1/2
Gives the increase in real income due to input growth alone
Real Income Growth Decomposition
The input growth and real output price contribution factors (to real income growth) can be broken down into separate effects that are defined in similar ways.
With the assumption of a translog technology, we can get the following exact decomposition of real income growth into contribution factors:
t /
t-1
t =
t
t
t where
t = w t
x t / w t-1
x t-1 is observable and ln
t = ln P T (p t-1 ,p t ,y t-1 ,y t ) and ln
t = ln Q T (w t-1 ,w t ,x t-1 ,x t ); where P T is the Törnqvist (real) output price index and Q T Törnqvist input quantity index.
We cumulate the now observable relationships
t /
t-1
=
t is the
t
t into the “levels” relationships
t /
t-1
=
T t A t B t
Terms of Trade Contribution Factors
The terms of trade contribution factors are made up of two separate effects (which we combine in the following figures): A real export price effect which adds to real income growth if the price of exports increases more rapidly than the price of consumption and A real import price effect which adds to real income growth if the price of imports falls compared to the price of consumption In the present setup, the entire value of investment is converted into consumption equivalents and added to actual consumption and the price of capital is the usual user cost of capital which includes a depreciation term.
But this framework overstates real (sustainable) consumption by the amount of depreciation
The Real Net Income Approach
In the final part of the paper, we take depreciation out of user cost and instead subtract it from gross investment.
Now investment is converted to consumption equivalents only if it is positive after netting out depreciation; thus, we have moved from real GDP (GDP deflated by the consumption price index) to real NDP (NDP deflated by the consumption price index).
The remaining user cost term is the reward for waiting or postponing consumption; thus, income is now labour income plus the net return to capital.
In the net framework, the role of TFP growth is magnified and in the Australian data, the role of capital deepening is diminished as we shall see.
Diewert-Lawrence Database
Initially developed for DCITA Extended market sector coverage – covers 16 of the 17 sectors in the National Accounts instead of the ABS MFP’s 12 sectors Builds up an output measure from final consumption components rather than sectoral gross value added Outputs and inputs are measured in terms of producer prices rather than consumer prices Constructs consistent capital and inventory input series and measures inventory change in a consistent manner Runs from 1959-60 to 2003-04 This version includes a balancing real rate of return and improved capital tax treatment
Price Indexes
3 2 1 0 7 6 5 4 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 Imports Government Consumption Investment Exports 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Price Indexes (cont’d)
26 24 22 20 8 6 4 2 0 18 16 14 12 10 Labour Domestic Output GDP Capital
Individual Contributors to Real Income - GDP
1.0
0.8
0.6
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
Labour Input Productivity Capital Input Terms of Trade Domestic Output Price
Cumulative Contributions to Real Income - GDP
6 5 4 3 Dom. Output Price Dom. Output Price + ToT Dom. Output Price + ToT + Capital Input Dom. Output Price + ToT + Capital Input + Labour Input Dom. Output Price + ToT + Capital Input + Labour Input + Productivity = Real Income 2 1 0
Investment Price Indexes
13 12 11 10 9 3 2 1 0 8 7 6 5 4 Gross Investment Depreciation Waiting Capital Services Net Investment
Investment Quantities
30,000 $1960m 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Waiting Capital Services Gross Investment Net Investment Depreciation
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
Individual Contributors to Real Income - NDP
Productivity Labour Input Capital Input Terms of Trade Domestic Output Price
Cumulative Contributions to Real Income - NDP
6 5 4 3 Dom. Output Price Dom. Output Price + ToT Dom. Output Price + ToT + Capital Input Dom. Output Price + ToT + Capital Input + Labour Input Dom. Output Price + ToT + Capital Input + Labour Input + Productivity = Real Income 2 1 0
Alternative TFP Indexes
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
D-L NDP D-L GDP ABS
Individual Contributors to Real Income - NDP
1.3
Productivity 1.2
1.1
1.0
Labour Input Terms of Trade Capital Input Domestic Output Price 0.9
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Cumulative Contributions to Real Income - NDP
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
Dom. Output Price Dom. Output Price + ToT Dom. Output Price + ToT + Capital Input Dom. Output Price + ToT + Capital Input + Labour Input Dom. Output Price + ToT + Capital Input + Labour Input + Productivity = Real Income 1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Conclusions
For Australia, we find that changes in the terms of trade, while important over a few short periods (including recent years), are not a long run explanation for the improvement in Australian living standards over the period 1960 –2004.
When we move to a net domestic product framework from a gross domestic market sector framework, the role of capital deepening as an explanatory factor for improving living standards is reduced and the role of technical progress (or TFP growth) and labour growth is increased.
The results emphasise the importance of maintaining a vigorous productivity reform program sustain ongoing improvements in – favourable movements in commodities prices over short periods cannot be relied upon to Australia’s living standards.