Transcript The Political Economy of Regionalism

Regionalism in Asia
April 27, 2006
Regional Anatomy I
Ken JIMBO
Mid-term Report
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Select One from following Five Topics on ‘Regionalism’
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‘Regionalism and Regionalization in Asia (or in certain region)’
‘Open-Regionalism’ vs. ‘Bilateral Networks’: Comparative Analysis
Rise of FTA/EPA in World Economy
Economic Integration and Regionalism
Security Interdependence and Regionalism
Socio-Cultural Interaction and Regionalism
Essay Guidance
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Essay Length: 1200 words (minimum) ⇒ academic format
Essay Deadline: 31st March, 2006
Software: Microsoft Word (Attached File)
To be Submitted to: [email protected]
Review 1)
Three Waves of Regionalism
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The First Wave (1950-60s)
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The Second Wave (1980-90s)
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Between small and medium States
Failure in achieving economic development
‘Open Regionalism’ ‘Inclusive (nested) Mechanism’
Stunted Progress (early marginalization)
The Third Wave (2000s-?)
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Bundle of ‘bilateral networks’
Regional endorsement of ‘ad-hoc mechanisms’
Review 2)
Rise of the Third Wave of Regionalism?
Level of
Cooperation/
Integration
Third Wave Regionalism ?
Second Wave Regionalism
Timelines
Review 3)
Globalism / Regionalism / Bilateralism and
the ‘Recursion’ of the Region
Economic Sphere
Security Sphere
Global Framework
GATT / IMF
UN / Multinational
Mega-Regionalism
APEC
ARF / OSCE
Regionalism
Coalition
Bilateralism
EU / ASEAN +3
Multilateral FTAs
Bilateral FTAs
EU / ASEAN
Anti-Terrorism
Bilateral Alliance
Evolution of Regional Integration
Degree of
Integration
State Integration
Economic Union
Common Market
Free Trade Area: FTA
Tariff Union
AFTA
MERCOSUR
NAFTA
Free Inv. &
Services
FTA(1992- )
FTA(1989- )
Free Inv. & Service
C.Economic Policies
C. Tariff
Custom Union(‘86- )
EU
euro(2002)
F Affairs &Defense
C. Economic Policies
C. Market & Infra
FTA(1958- )
BENELUX Tariff U (’55)
ASEAN-6(’67)
USA+Canada(’92)
B&A
EEC-6(’58)
ASEAN-10(’99)
+Mexico(’94)
+ P&U(’95)
EU-12(’86)
+ China (2010?）
ASEAN=21%
EU-15(’95) EU-27 ?
FTAA-34 ? (2005?)
54%
21%
62%
East Asia=40%
------ INTRA-REGIONAL TRADE SHARE (%) OUT OF TOTAL TRADE -------Source: Kakazu + TY
Regionalism in Asia
General Perspective
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Cultural Diversity
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Language
Religion
Historical Backgrounds
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Pre-Modern Asia (-1840?)
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China-centric (tributary) regional order
Modern Asia
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Great power imperialism (1840-1945)
Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere (1920-1945)
Post-WWII and Asia
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Decolonization and Nation Building
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Sovereignty and Nation Building
Economic Re-construction
Cold War Fragmentation
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China Civil War (1947-49)
Korean War (1950-53)
Vietnam War (1965-74)
Post-Cold War Experience
Europe and Asia Compared
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In Europe, both the security (NATO) and
economic structures (EEC→EC) created the
basis for subsequent institutionalization of
intra-European ties
Many of America’s Asian allies had far
stronger ties across the Pacific than they had
among themselves
Cold War Structure and Asia
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Alliance Structure
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Europe: NATO
Asia: Bilateral Alliances (San Francisco
System) plus SEATO and ANZUS
Threat Perception
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Europe: USSR + Eastern Europe
Asia: USSR / China / North Korea / North
Vietnam
US-led Alliance System (Cold War)
NATO
Warsaw Pact
European Theater
(Regional Approach)
Asian Theater
(Bilateral Approach)
Bilateral (Hub-Spokes)
Alliances
Major Conflicts in Asia
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Northeast Asia
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Divided Korea
Divided China
Sino-USSR Confrontation
Southeast Asia
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Sino-Vietnam Confrontation
Sino-India Confrontation
Internal Revolt (communism,
fundamentalism)
Wake of ‘Regionalization’ in Asia
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‘De Facto’ Economic Integration
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Japan’s Economic Success
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‘Flying Geese’ Model (Kojima, 2001)
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Production Networks
Fragmentation Model
Production Cycle Model (R. Vernon, 1966)
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Foreign aid, trade, investment and technology transfe
Benefit of export-oriented ‘late comer’
ASEAN Integration (Political/Economic)
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Bali Concord / TAC
AFTA / ASEAN 10
ASEAN Community (economic/security/socio-cultural)
Flying Geese Model (1)
Source: http://www.grips.ac.jp/module/prsp/FGeese.htm
Flying Geese Model (2)
Source: http://www.grips.ac.jp/module/prsp/FGeese.htm
Product Cycle Model (1)
Product Cycle Model (2)
Product Cycle Model (3)
De Facto Economic Integration
(1980)
３１９．１
４０９．１
２０７．９
６１５．９
２７６．７
４２８．５
３６６．９
７２．８
１９８．０
２３９．１
Europe
３６６．６
Asia
２７４．０
（unit：one hundred million dollars）
De Facto Economic Integration
(2000)
１４４０．１
（４．５times）
２１４０．９
（５．２times）
６４５．１
（３．１times）
１６４５．９
１３３３．１
３１１４．２
（２．７times）
（７．３times）
（４．８times）
１９７３．１
７２．８
（５．４times）
１２４９．２
４８４．６
（４．０）times
（５．２times）
１６８４．３
（４．６times）
Asia
２１９３．１
（８．０times）
（unit：one hundred million dollars）
世界の各地域経済共同体と東アジアにおける
貿易の域内依存率（２００２年）
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
62.5%
51.9%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
39.2%
45.8%
22.5%
13.8%
日中韓
日中韓港台
ＡＳＥＡＮ
＋日中韓港台
ＮＡＦＴＡ
ＥＵ
ＭＥＲＣＯＳＵＲ
※日中韓は日本・中国・韓国間の貿易に占める３カ国の割合、日中韓港台は日本・中国・韓国・香港・台湾の貿易に占める５カ国・地域の割合、ASEAN＋日中韓港台はASEAN
及び日本・中国・韓国・香港・台湾の貿易に占める前述の各国・地域の割合。
（出所）日本：財務省貿易統計。中国：中国統計年鑑2003年、韓国：Korea Customs Service HP、台湾：Statistical Yearbook 2003 Edition, National Statistics of Taiwan, the
Republic of China。その他はＩＭＦ　Direction of Trade Statistics
ASEAN’s Regionalization Process
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Chronology
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1967:
1971:
1976:
1976:
1992:
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1995: Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone
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1997: ASEAN Vision 2020
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2003: ASEAN Concord II
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Bangkok Declaration
Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality (ZOPFAN)
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC)
ASEAN Concord I
ASEAN Declaration on the South China Sea
ASEAN (Bali) Concord II and ASEAN Community
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ASEAN Economic Community
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ASEAN Security Community
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ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community
APEC Process
(Rise of Second Wave)
ARF Process
(Rise of Second Wave)
Mechanism for
Conflict Resolution
Preventive
Diplomacy (PD)
Confidence
Building (CBM)
Four Drivers of East Asian Linkages
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Governments
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In European regionalism, the focus on national
governments is a given. Multinational governmental
cooperation results in formal regional organizations.
In Asia, although governments have been key players,
regional integration were not always driven by formal
process.
Corporations
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Regional trade, investment and cross-national
production networks.
Four Drivers of East Asian Linkages
(contd.)
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Functional Cooperation
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Ad-hoc Problem-oriented Bodies
Growing Middle-class Networks
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Similar Life-style
Common Social Security Concerns
Middle Class Culture Sharing
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“Standard Package” (car, TV, video, PC,
cosmetics…etc)
Middle Class in China
Reference
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T.J. Pempel, “Introduction: Emerging Webs of Regional Connectedness” T.J. Pempel
ed., Remapping East Asia: The Construction of a Region (Cornell University Press,
2005)
Etel Solingen “East Asian Regional Institutions: Characteristics, Sources,
Distinctiveness” T.J. Pempel Ed., op.cit.
Paul Evans, “Between Regionalism and Regionalization: Policy Networks and the
Nascent East Asian Institutional Identity” T.J. Pempel ed., op.cit.
Edward Lincoln, East Asian Economic Regionalism (Brookings Institution Press, 2004)
Peter J. Katzenstein, World of Regions: Asia and Europe in the American Imperium
(Cornell University Press, 2005) Ch.2,3,4
Kiyoshi Kojima, The 'flying geese' model of Asian economic development: origin,
theoretical extensions, and regional policy implications. Journal of Asian Economics 11,
2000, pp.375-401.
Raymond Vernon, "International Investment and International Trade in the Product
Cycle." Quarterly Journal of Economics 80 (May 1966), pp.190-207.
Takashi Shiraishi, “The Third Wave: Southeast Asia and Middle-Class Formation in the
Making of Region” Peter Katzenstein and Takashi Shiraishi eds., Beyond Japan: The
Dynamics of East Asian Regionalism (Cornell University Press, 2006)