Transcript Demographics: The population – a dying breed?

Demographics:
The most predictable of trends the
easiest of opportunities?
Lecture 6:
U09069 Management Futures
Zoë Dann
Learning outcomes
• To take a global and UK perspective
– Interrelate trends of demography and extrapolate
them into the future
– Discuss some of the difficulties of measurement
– Relate this to impacts on organisations either as
opportunities and threats
– Define some of the responses by organisations
Global demography
World population change
World population
• Do you know how many people live of the
planet?
• How will the population change over the time
of this lecture…have a guess
Population clocks: Let’s look at some
estimates…
– US Government census bureau
– Berkeley University
Population density
Source: NRCS, 1994
Size of country based on population
http://www.xist.org/earth/gen_popsize.aspx
The future of population growth
Natural resources will not be
sufficient to support population
growth…?
Why do we need to know?
• Governments, international agencies, private
sector
• Strategic planning and long term investment
• Pensions and health costs, labour force size,
health strategies
• Future consumers (e.g. the emerging global
middle class) and future workforce
• Identifying needs for ‘bulges’ through following
progression of cohorts
Walker (2008, 2009)
Malthusian crisis
• Natural resources will not be sufficient for
population growth
Crisis
Food supply
Volume of food
Birth rate
Birth rate
1798
Time
World population projection
World population projections
UN 2004 projections (red, orange, green) and US Census Bureau historical estimates
UN statistics, 2004
Growth rate projections
Why the fall?
The population - a dying breed?
Minnesotans For Sustainability
Source: Minnesotans For Sustainability, 2006
What actually happens…
Births and
Mortality
rates
Population
Growth
births
mortality
Time
Notestein's Demographic Transition Model, 1945
E.g.Tanzania
NBS, 2002
E.g. Japan
Statistics Bureau, MIC2003
Demographic Transition
Notestein's Demographic Transition Model, 1945
Ageing population
Source: Government Actuary's Department (GAD), 2003 principal projections and
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
India v China
Source: UN Population Division (1997): World Population Prospects,
1950-2050. The 1996 Edition. (Annex I and II)
Chart: G.K. Heilig, 1996, IIASA-LUC
And the rest…
Source: Population Division of
the Dept. of Economic and
Social Affairs of the UN
Secretariat, World Population
Prospects: The 2004 Revision.
Losses and gains
• Interactive map
Population growth and composition
• Population growing more rapidly in countries
with fewest resources
– Lower growth in Europe, North America, Oceania
and Asia (av. 1.7% growth)
– Higher in Latin America (av. 1.9%) and Africa (av.
2.8%)
(UN, 2007)
• Male/Female ratio usually favours women
• Eastern European contracting
e.g. Ukraine TFR 1.15, Czech Republic 1.25
• ‘Hypermortality’ of Russia ‘normally
associated with effects of major war’
(Walker, 2008)
Urbansiation
Urbanisation – ‘The second wave’
Urbanisation
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In 1950, New York was the largest city with 12.3m people (London, 8.7m
people)
By 2007, there were an estimated 26 mega-cities, with 16 in the
developing world
1.
Tokyo, Japan
33,6M
2.
Seoul, South Korea
23,4M
3.
Ciudad de México
22,4M
4.
New York, USA
21,9M
5.
Mumbai, India
21,6M
6.
Dehli, India
21,5M
7.
São Paulo, Brazil
20,6M
8.
Los Angeles, USA
18,0M
9.
Shanghai, China
17,5M
10.
Osaka, Japan
16,7M
Interactive map
http://www.unfpa.org/pds/images/Trend_Graphic.swf
Urban Growth
Demography
A UK perspective: opportunities and
threats
Some key UK trends
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Population
Immigration
Fertility rate
Death rate
Average age of population
Number of lone-parents
Number living on their own
Implication of trends
Opportunities and threats
Urbanisation, migration and population
growth
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Feeding the world
Providing water
Temperature
Air pollution
Destruction of habitat
Urban and rural population needs
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Jobs
Health services
Education
Transport
Police
Housing
http://www.mfa.fi/uvvwork?id=1884507
Ageing population
Increasing UK population and aged, but…
• Although over 65s still a small proportion, expected to
grow
• Implications for:
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Health
Employment
Pensions
Recreation
Housing
Other????
The grey market
• Some companies have identified the
market, e.g. Saga
– Magazines
– Health plans
– Holidays
– Insurance and Finance
– Medication
• Employment opportunities e.g. B&Q
• Property market movement
Shrinking households
• Serial co-habitation, lone-parenthood and people living
alone are expected to increase
• If true, then…companies that might benefit:
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Law firms
Property developers
Child care providers
Dating agencies
Beauty Salons
Home carers for the elderly living alone
Others???
Implications of demographic changes
• Emergence of new markets and the decline of others
e.g. Lone-parenthood childcare provision
• Need for different products and services
e.g. Ageing population (are their needs all the same?),
migrant new-mothers
• Need for organisations to either adapt or proactively
modify their employment policies
e.g. Need to accommodate increasing number of
people living alone
But remember…
After all this analysis…
Limitation of statistics
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Some data is from small samples
Poor records in developing countries
Lack of standard definitions e.g. education
Country’s boundaries for areas measured variable
Births, deaths, easy to estimate of migration much
more difficult to evaluate
• There is no single ‘right’ way to make assumptions
about population
UN, 1996, 2000
Future population change
“Little about population change is inevitable.”
US Census, 2000
“Demography is a science that is seldom kind to projection
of current trends into the future”
Walker, 2008
• Changes affecting life and death and.. .................!
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Government policy
Weather
Happiness
Contraception
Resources – food, water, shelter
Technological advances …..
So shall we look at the
population clock?
US Government census bureau
Further Reading
• Kew, J and Stredwick, J, (2006), ‘Business Environment, managing in
a strategic context’, Chapter 6, Demographic trends, CIPD
• Walker, M, (2008),’The New Demography of the 21st Century: Part 1
The birth rate surprise’, Strategy and Leadership, Emerald, Vol 36
No 6, pp 42 - 48
• Walker, M, (2009),’The New Demography of the 21st Century: Part 2
Gender gaps and Population Bulges – what demography means to
the corporate planner’, Strategy and Leadership, Emerald, Vol 31 No
1, pp 31- 34
• Wetherley, P (2008), ‘The Business Environment: Themes and
Issues, Chapter 5: Social Demographics’, Oxford University Press
• Discussion on how population statistics are estimated:
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/estandproj.html
Appendix 1:
Global Demography
Life expectancy
Source: Panagiotis, 2008
Appendix: 2
Demographic Trends
UK
UK projections on population growth
National Statistics Online: www.statistics.gov.uk
UK population projections
Fertility UK
National Statistics Online: www.statistics.gov.uk
Registered deaths UK
National Statistics Online: www.statistics.gov.uk
Net migration
National Statistics Online: www.statistics.gov.uk
Gender and age UK
National Statistics Online: www.statistics.gov.uk
Divorce
National Statistics Online: www.statistics.gov.uk
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Divorces
19
61
19
65
19
69
19
73
19
77
19
81
19
85
19
89
19
93
19
97
20
01
Ff
Divorces
Divorce Reform Act
1969 came into effect
1971
National Statistics Online: www.statistics.gov.uk
Increasing lone parents
Increasing one person house holds
National Statistics Online: www.statistics.gov.uk