Transcript EU beef and veal market A brief overview and some

group housing of pregnant sows as applicable from 1 January 2013
"Single CMO" Management Committee
17 October 2013
Evolution of the EU average pig carcass price
190
€/100 kg
175
160
145
130
115
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
5 yr Avg (08-12)
DG AGRI C4
May
Jun
2010
Jul
Aug
2011
Sep
Oct
2012
Nov
Dec
2013
17 October 2013
Evolution of the EU average piglet prices
50
€/piece
45
40
35
30
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
5 yr avg (08 - 12)
DG AGRI C4
May
Jun
2010
Jul
Aug
2011
Sep
Oct
2012
Nov
Dec
2013
17 October 2013
Price of Basic Ingredients 2011 - 2013
Soft wheat (EU)
Barley (EU)
Maïs (EU)
450
Soja (CAF)
Hulls (EU)
Euro / tonne
Manioc (CAF)
C.G.F. (CAF)
350
250
150
50
Jan
April
DG AGRI C4
Juil
Oct
Jan
April
Juil
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
17 October 2013
Jan
Futures for Feed w heat EU (Euronext)
(Nearby = 2012 & 2013)
€uro/ Tonn
225
195
De liv e ry:
165
01 Nea rby
20 13 Nov
20 14 Ja n
20 14 Mar
135
| July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec Jan
|
2013
| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
DG AGRI C4
17 October 2013
Futures for Maize EU (Euronext )
(Nearby = 2012 - 2013)
260
240
€/Tonn
220
Delivery:
200
Nearby
2013 Nov
180
2014 Jan
2014 Mar
160
| July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | DecJan
| 2013
| Feb | Mrt | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
DG AGRI C4
17 October 2013
Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel
(nearby = 2012 & 2013)
1.700
1.600
1.500
1.400
1.300
Delivery:
01 Ne ar by
1.200
20 13 Nov
20 14 Mar
20 14 Jul
1.100
| July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov . | Dec. |Jan 2013| Feb | Mch | Apr | May |
DG AGRI C4
Jun
| July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |
17 October 2013
Comparisson betw een Compoundfeed for Pigs
and a Cereal-Feedmix
300
250
Euro/ 100kg ( pig carcase)
250
200
200
150
150
Margin/ Comp. Feed (4.4 > 3.9)
Carcase price
100
average Margin 2008 - 2012 (45,21€/100kg)
100
Cereals and Soja mix
Compound feed
50
50
0
0
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
NB:Comp. Feed 2013 = Forecast as from September
Cereal mix and Pig carcase price: 2013. = forecast as from October)
DG AGRI C4
17 October 2013
|
€uro/ T (Cereal & Soja mix/ Compound feed)
300
Preliminary results of the May June 2013
Survey on Pigs
All 14 MSs communicated for the May June pig population
40.000
35.000
Total
pi gl ets
Y pi gs
Sows
Mated
Fatteni ng
Oth. fatt.
Heads
30.000
25.000
20.000
-0,9%
-1,2%
-2,9%
-2,4%
-2,5%
-1,7%
+3,5%
2010
2011
2012
15.000
2013
10.000
5.000
0
Piglets
DG AGRI C4
Young
pigs
Sows
Sow Mated
Fatening
>50<80
other
fattening
17 October 2013
30,0%
Change in pig slaughter in heads
Period I - VII 2013 over 2012 (EU 27 = + 0,2%)
15,0%
0,0%
-15,0%
lt lv ro sk ee be mt fi it lu bg de uk ie at fr se dk cz es nl pl gr pt hu cy si hr
DG AGRI C4
17 October 2013
EU
Slaughter: forecast based on realised slaughter and
communicated GIP change
(last slaughter update: 30.9.2013 27 MSs ESP change)
2,0%
0,0%
-2,0%
-4,0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
q1
2,2%
-0,5%
-1,6%
0,2%
q2
2,3%
-1,6%
0,2%
0,5%
q3
3,1%
-5,5%
-0,2%
q4
0,3%
-2,0%
-2,6%
year
2,0%
-2,4%
-1,1%
DG AGRI C4
17 October 2013
Development of the EU average price for
pig carcasses
190
Price in €uro / 100kg
180
170
160
150
Moy.Annuelle
Avg: 2008- 2012: 151,92
2010: 140,2
Euro/ 100kg
2011: 153,2
,,
2012: 170,6
,,
2013: 175,4
,,
(Fc)
140
130
120
I/ 2014
IV/ 2013 171,72
III/ 2013 183,61
II/ 2014 171,65
169,01
110
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
avg 08 - 12
DG AGRI C4
May
Jun
Jul
Forecast EU 27
Aug
Sep
2011
Oct
Nov
2012
17 October 2013
Dec
2013
Weekly average Pigprices 2009 - 2013
EU, Brazil and the US
in Euro/ 100kg carcase
195,0
175,0
155,0
135,0
115,0
95,0
75,0
55,0
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat
US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lb
BR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)
CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca)
2013
EU
US
Braz. avg
CDN Ontario
DG AGRI C4
17 October 2013
|
Pigprices and forecasts in US and EU
EU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat
US Forecast: Chicago Mercantile Exchange
195
€uro/ 100kg
170
145
120
EU
US
95
70
|
DG AGRI C4
11
|
12
|
13
|
14
17 October 2013
|
Trade in Pigmeat
DG AGRI C4
17 October 2013
DG AGRI C4
23.070
1.750.000
1.500.000
1.250.000
1.000.000
750.000
500.000
250.000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Jan-Aug 13
0
17 October 2013
Tonnes product weight
2.569.087
.
2.023.685
3.130.291
3.191.546
2.684.947
2.386.245
1.910.908
2.089.363
1.938.455
1.780.568
1.509.302
EXPORTS
34.900
38.201
43.437
51.789
59.838
43.179
32.368
21.730
22.612
72.276
1.526.563
1.331.808
1.545.907
1.556.961
1.238.138
1.083.230
943.405
881.011
IMPORTS
54.499
56.077
55.918
63.800
51.641
71.937
59.720
46.135
EU trade of PIG products
4.000.000
3.750.000
3.500.000
3.250.000
3.000.000
2.750.000
2.500.000
2.250.000
2.000.000
EU imports of selected PIG products
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
2009
Origins
2010
17.240
33% 17.480
40% 18.659
49% 18.567
53%
11.709
51%
-12%
Chile
16.554
32%
8.874
20%
7.082
19%
7.291
21%
3.998
17%
-14%
387
1%
851
2%
2.389
6%
2.386
7%
1.951
8%
22%
6.540
13%
5.616
13%
1.436
4%
1.148
3%
924
4%
8%
340
1%
414
1%
42
0%
67
0%
70
0%
50%
6.667
13%
4.971
11%
4.102
11%
4.404
13%
4.418
19%
Other
EXTRA EU 25/27 51.789
% change
DG AGRI C4
%
tonnes
%
tonnes
43.437
38.201
34.900
23.070
- 16%
- 12%
- 9%
- 7,2%
%
Compared
Switzerland
Canada
tonnes
Jan-Aug 13
%
USA
%
2012
tonnes
Serbia
tonnes
2011
17 October 2013
to Jan-A ug 12
EU imports of selected PIG products
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27
(Tonnes prod. weight)
IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (1000 EUR)
50.000
30.000
24.853
23.607
23.070
25.000
3.215
2.553
43.310
43.284
8.556
8.590
40.164
6.468
20.000
4.666
3.998
13.374
11.705
11.709
30.000
25.000
15.000
10.000
20.000
13.741
17.221
13.021
11.807
10.170
Jan-Aug 12
Jan-Aug 13
Switzerland
Chile
DG AGRI C4
Serbia
Jan-Aug 11
Jan-Aug 13
Norway
USA
Other origins
5.000
0
0
Jan-Aug 12
15.000
10.000
5.000
7.571
Jan-Aug 11
40.000
35.000
3.160
5.509
45.000
Switzerlan d
Chile
Serbia
Norway
USA
17 October 2013
Other origins
Imports of selected PIG products
6.000
in Tonnes
(product
weight)
4.500
3.000
1.500
0
|
Jan
07
2007
|
Jan
08
2008
|
Jan
09
FRESH
DG AGRI C4
2009
|
Jan
10
FROZEN
2010
FAT
|
Jan
11
2011
|
Jan
12
2012
|
Jan
13
2013
OTHERS
17 October 2013
EU exports of selected PIG products:
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
Destinations
tonnes
%
tonnes
%
tonnes
Jan-Aug 13
2012
2011
2010
2009
%
tonnes
tonnes
%
%
Compared to
Jan-Aug 12
7,7%
393.183 12,3%
586.283 18,7%
438.816 21,7%
+ 23%
762.144 32,9%
808.683 30,1%
847.540 26,6%
745.509 23,8%
497.876 24,6%
- 3%
Hong Kong
413.921 17,9%
426.697 15,9%
539.338 16,9%
380.596 12,2%
240.330 11,9%
- 5%
Japan
186.049
8,0%
223.637
8,3%
231.282
7,2%
230.800
7,4%
149.165
7,4%
- 5%
Ukraine
147.346
6,4%
137.736
5,1%
113.941
3,6%
161.619
5,2%
85.366
4,2%
- 22%
South Korea
95.036
4,1%
100.790
3,8%
193.909
6,1%
137.219
4,4%
64.184
3,2%
- 35%
Philippines
26.573
1,1%
89.407
3,3%
96.880
3,0%
73.363
2,3%
68.146
3,4%
+ 37%
Belarus
28.427
1,2%
80.331
3,0%
103.830
3,3%
123.433
3,9%
59.651
2,9%
- 27%
USA
55.522
2,4%
58.593
2,2%
59.396
1,9%
60.689
1,9%
39.765
2,0%
- 5%
Angola
45.383
2,0%
44.399
1,7%
61.535
1,9%
58.905
1,9%
38.976
1,9%
+ 6%
Australia
46.731
2,0%
50.304
1,9%
44.265
1,4%
47.189
1,5%
29.577
1,5%
- 2%
China
178.671
Russia
Other
7,7%
329.727 14,2%
2.315.530
EXTRA EU15-25-27
% change
DG AGRI C4
207.128
389.458 14,5%
435.718 13,7%
450.637 14,4%
311.835 15,4%
2.617.163
3.120.816
3.056.241
2.023.685
+ 13%
+ 19%
- 2%
- 0,6%
17 October 2013
EU exports of selected PIG products
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat
(Tonnes prod. weight)
EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)
Tons (pw)
.
3.992.836
2.500.000
in 1,000 EUR
.
4.500.000
3.922.915
4.000.000
2.011.903
2.036.763
2.023.685
3.398.625
3.500.000
2.000.000
674.518
221.613
3.000.000
1.358.324
2.500.000
149.165
156.251
357.865
438.816
254.088
240.330
560.838
515.237
497.876
Jan-Aug 11
Jan-Aug 12
Jan-Aug 13
337.942
1.403.053
612.133
643.764
1.500.000
153.021
1.498.464
585.059
1.000.000
564.456
1.500.000
361.351
325.226
922.768
953.129
500.000
855.847
0
Russia
Hong Kong
China
DG AGRI C4
Japan
Ukraine
2.000.000
511.990
Other destinations
1.000.000
500.000
0
Jan-Aug 11
Russia
Hong Kong
Jan-Aug 12
China
Japan
Jan-Aug 13
Ukraine
Other destinations
17 October 2013
in Tonnes
(product weight)
Exports of selected PIG products
350.000
300.000
250.000
200.000
150.000
100.000
50.000
0
|
Jan 07
2007
|
Jan 08
FRESH
DG AGRI C4
2008
|
Jan 09
2009
FROZEN
|
Jan 10
2010
FAT
|
Jan 11
2011
|
Jan 12
LIVE ANIMALS
2012
|
Jan 13
2013
OTHERS
17 October 2013