Transcript EU beef and veal market A brief overview and some

group housing of pregnant sows as applicable from 1 January 2013
"Single CMO" Management Committee
22 March 2012
Development of the EU
Pig Carcasses price
€/100 kg
155
135
115
1
4
7
10
13
16
5 yr Avg (07-11)
DG AGRI C4
19 22
25
2009
28
31
34 37 40 43 46 49 52
2010
2011
22 March 2012
2012
2
Difference in €uro in %
Percentual change in Pig prices February 2012
-1 year
15%
- 1 month
8%
0%
-8%
BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HUMT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK
DG AGRI C4
22 March 2012
EU
3
Development of EU piglet prices
€/ piece
50
40
30
1
4
7
10
5 yr avg (07 - 11)
DG AGRI C4
13
16
19
2009
22
25
28
2010
31
34
37
40
2011
43
46
49
52
2012
22 March 2012
4
Relation between monthly pig slaughterings and
weekly pig carcass prices 2009 - 2012
175.00
2 100
165.00
155.00
145.00
1 700
Euro/ 100kg
Saughterin1000 T
1 900
135.00
1 500
125.00
1 300
NB: Monthly Slaughter
"official" slaughter only
115.00
1 100
105.00
2009
Source:
EU Commission DG AGRI
DG AGRI C4
2010
2011
Slaughter (forc.) EU 27
2012
Price
22 March 2012
5
Development of numbers of animals per category
December survey
24 MSs (91,6% of the total)
2008
30
nr. in 1 000 000 head
2009
2010
2011
20
2011
Total pigs
-1,7%
Piglets
+0,6%
Young pigs
-2,5%
Fattening
-2,4%
Sow s
-3,5%
Mt. Sow s
-3,5%
1st time mated -3,7%
of which
10
of which
0
Piglets
DG AGRI C4
Y. Pigs
Sows
Mated Sows
1st time mated
22 March 2012
6
Slaughter: Quarterly change compared to the same period
in the previous year (GIP Data only) last update: 6.3.2012
(25 MSs)
missing : EI and ÖS
Change in %
2,0%
0,0%
-2,0%
-4,0%
2009
2010
2011
2012
Q1
-3,7%
0,1%
2,2%
0,1%
Q2
-1,4%
0,0%
2,3%
-0,4%
Q3
-2,5%
3,4%
0,7%
1,8%
Q4
-0,2%
0,9%
0,6%
-1,8%
Ann
-1,9%
1,1%
1,4%
-0,1%
DG AGRI C4
22 March 2012
7
Comparisson of Sows/ Mated Sows (Dec Survey) and slaughter
10.000
20.000
9.500
15.000
9.000
10.000
8.500
5.000
8.000
0
2004
2005
Slaughter Tonn
DG AGRI C4
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sows Mated
22 March 2012
8
Slaughter in 1000 T
Sows mated in heads
(official + estimated unofficial slaughteras from 2009
2010 Italy still missing, 2011 no data yet= 2010)
Price of Basic Ingredients 2009 - 2012
350
Euro / tonne
300
Soft wheat (EU)
Barley (EU)
Maïs (EU)
Soja (CAF)
Hulls (EU)
Manioc (CAF)
C.G.F. (CAF)
250
200
150
100
50
Jan 09
April
Juil
DG AGRI C4
Oct
Jan 10
April
Juil
Oct
Jan-11
April
Juil
Oct
Jan-12
22 March 2012
April
Juil
9
Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel
(nearby = 2011 & 2012)
1 450
1 300
Delivery:
01 Nearby
2012 Jul
1 150
2012 Aug
2012 Nov
2013 Mar
1 000
| Jan | Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan | Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun |
DG AGRI C4
22 March 2012
10
Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext)
(Nearby = 2011 & 2012)
€uro/ Tonn
200
170
140
01 Nearby
110
2012 May
2012 Nov
2013 Jan
80
|
Jan | Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug |
2011
DG AGRI C4
Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Jan | Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June |
2012
22 March 2012
11
Futures for Maize EU (Euronext)
(Nearby = 2011 - 2012)
230
€/Tonn
210
190
Delivery:
170
01 Nearby
2012 Mar
2012 Aug
150
2013 Jun
130
| Jan | Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mrt | Apr | May | Jun |
2011
2012
DG AGRI C4
22 March 2012
12
Prices for slaughtered pigs minus
Compound Feed costs
25,000
200
Slaughterings in Mio Tonns
20,000
Euro/ 100kg
150
15,000
100
10,000
50
5,000
0
0,000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11
Margin
Avg marg 07 -11
DG AGRI C4
ja fe mr ap ma jn jl au se oc no de
Feed cost
Slaught. Eu 15
Pigprices
Slaught EU 27
22 March 2012
13
Weekly average Pigprices 2008 - 2012
EU, Brazil and the US
175,0
in Euro/ 100kg carcase
155,0
135,0
115,0
95,0
75,0
55,0
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat
US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lb
BR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)
CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca)
DG AGRI C4
2011
|
weeks
2012
|
EU
US
Braz. avg
CDN Ontario
22 March 2012
14
Pigprices in US and EU and forecasts
195
EU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat
US Forecast: Chicago Mercantile Exchange
€uro/ 100kg
170
145
120
EU
95
US
70
|
09
DG AGRI C4
|
10
|
11
|
22 March 2012
12
|
15
1,7
Weekly exchange rate US dollar
1,6
2008 - 2012
1 €uro = ………US$
1,5
1,4
1,3
1,2
1,1
1
|
08
|
DG AGRI C4
09
|
10
|
11
|
12
22 March 2012
|
16
Trade in Pigmeat
DG AGRI C4
22 March 2012
17
DG AGRI C4
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
3 061
247 953
37 771
43 437
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1 500 000
1 250 000
1 000 000
750 000
500 000
22 March 2012
.
.
2 569 087
.
.
.
3 190 556
2 685 126
2 386 245
1 910 908
2 089 363
1 938 455
2 250 000
Tonnes product weight
.
1 780 568
1 509 302
1 526 563
1 331 808
1 545 907
1 556 961
1 238 138
.
EXPORTS
51 789
59 838
43 179
32 368
21 730
22 612
72 276
54 499
.
1 083 230
943 405
881 011
IMPORTS
56 077
55 918
63 800
51 641
71 937
59 720
46 135
.
.
.
EU trade of PIG products
3 250 000
3 000 000
2 750 000
2 500 000
2 000 000
1 750 000
250 000
Janjanv
12
0
18
EU imports of selected PIG products
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
Origins
tonnes
%
tonnes
tonnes
%
Switzerland
12 377
21% 17 240
33% 17 480
Chile
17 142
29% 16 554
32%
8 874
USA
21 532
36%
6 540
13%
Croatia
3 965
7%
4 061
Serbia
1 181
2%
Canada
53
3 588
Other
Jan-janv 12 Compared
2011
2010
2009
2008
%
tonnes
%
tonnes
49%
1 811
59%
15%
20%
7 082
19%
542
18%
-22%
5 616
13%
1 413
4%
135
4%
+++
8%
5 231
12%
4 491
12%
84
3%
-81%
387
1%
851
2%
2 368
6%
177
6%
4%
0%
340
1%
414
1%
41
0%
12
0%
-34%
6%
6 667
13%
4 972
11%
3 751
10%
299
10%
51 789
43 437
37 771
3 061
+ 39%
- 13%
- 16%
- 13%
- 6.1%
DG AGRI C4
to Jan-janv 11
40% 18 626
EXTRA EU 25/27 59 838
% change
%
22 March 2012
19
EU imports of selected PIG products
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27
(Tonnes prod. weight)
IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (1000 EUR)
7 000
5 974
5 000
4 534
4 500
364
1 322
4 000
3 261
3 061
523
1 811
1 580
4 000
USA
542
135
Jan-janv 10
Jan-janv 11
Jan-janv 12
Sw itzerland
Croatia
DG AGRI C4
Argentina
Other destinations
1 679
1 000
875
562
65
0
Jan-janv 10
USA
Chile
3 000
2 000
2 332
500
692
22
1 252
2 332
1 000
350
Chile
1 048
2 000
1 500
1 013
1 208
1 291
6 000
596
2 500
1 426
5 095
5 000
3 500
3 000
489
5 049
Jan-janv 11
Switzerland
Croatia
0
Jan-janv 12
Argentina
Other destinations
22 March 2012
20
Imports of selected PIG products
6 000
in Tonnes
(product
weight)
4 500
3 000
1 500
0
|
Jan
07
2007
|
Jan
08
2008
FRESH
DG AGRI C4
|
Jan
09
2009
FROZEN
|
Jan
10
2010
FAT
|
Jan
11
2011
|
Jan
12
2011
|
Jan
13
OTHERS
22 March 2012
21
EU exports of selected PIG products:
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
Destinations
2008
tonnes
2009
%
tonnes
2010
%
tonnes
2011
%
tonnes
%
Jan-janv 12
Compared to
tonnes
Jan-janv 11
%
Russia
769 044 29.9%
762 144 31.9%
808 709 30.1%
847 286 26.6%
61 714 24.9%
+ 16%
Hong Kong
462 299 18.0%
413 921 17.3%
426 697 15.9%
539 463 16.9%
40 405 16.3%
+ 24%
China
147 951 5.8%
178 671 7.5%
207 128 7.7%
392 683 12.3%
33 275 13.4%
+ 68%
Japan
236 609 9.2%
186 049 7.8%
223 637 8.3%
231 224 7.2%
16 791 6.8%
+ 4%
South Korea
115 757 4.5%
95 036 4.0%
100 790 3.8%
193 994 6.1%
18 960 7.6%
+ 59%
Ukraine
189 001 7.4%
147 346 6.2%
137 736 5.1%
113 985 3.6%
8 105 3.3%
+ 23%
Belarus
55 276 2.2%
28 427 1.2%
80 331 3.0%
103 867 3.3%
5 840 2.4%
+ 74%
Philippines
40 912 1.6%
26 573 1.1%
89 407 3.3%
96 662 3.0%
7 737 3.1%
+ 10%
Croatia
63 426 2.5%
70 715 3.0%
67 784 2.5%
70 692 2.2%
4 760 1.9%
+ 19%
Angola
49 003 1.9%
45 383 1.9%
44 465 1.7%
61 493 1.9%
4 409 1.8%
+ 19%
USA
61 471 2.4%
55 522 2.3%
58 592 2.2%
59 423 1.9%
5 156 2.1%
+ 13%
Australia
45 621 1.8%
46 731 2.0%
50 304 1.9%
44 242 1.4%
4 028 1.6%
+ 3%
332 719 13.0%
329 727 13.8%
389 545 14.5%
435 543 13.7%
36 774 14.8%
Other
EXTRA EU15-25-27
2 569 087
% change
DG AGRI C4
2 386 245
2 685 126
3 190 556
247 953
- 7%
- 7%
+ 13%
+ 24.9%
22 March 2012
22
EU exports of selected PIG products
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)
EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat
(Tonnes prod. weight)
481 377
247 953
.
76 809
200 000
65 017
150 000
16 791
51 443
16 131
15 341
32 614
100 000
40 405
24 911
38 416
50 000
53 031
61 714
0
Jan-janv 10
Russia
Japan
Jan-janv 11
Hong Kong
South Korea
DG AGRI C4
Jan-janv 12
China
Other destinations
159 241
333 307
240 919
400 000
300 000
120 898
59 874
200 000
95 747
54 362
48 919
46 458
Jan-janv 10
Russia
Japan
58 521
100 000
35 611
1,000 EUR
151 821
500 000
250 000
Tonnes (product weight)
198 515
600 000
.
300 000
110 052
79 213
0
Jan-janv 11
Jan-janv 12
Hong Kong
South Korea
China
Other destinations
22 March 2012
23
Exports of selected PIG products
.
300 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
|
Jan 07
2007
|
Jan 08
FRESH
2008
|
Jan 09
FROZEN
DG AGRI C4
2009
|
Jan 10
FAT
2010
|
Jan 11
LIVE
2011
|
Jan 12
ANIMALS
2011
|
Jan 13
OTHERS
22 March 2012
24
in Tonnes (product weight)
250 000
Cumulated quantity of
w eekly requests
for Export licenses
in the Pigmeat sector
for Gatt year 2011 - 2012
600.000
500.000
Tonnes
400.000
300.000
200.000
Cumulative quantity available
100.000
cumulative attributions
0
1
3
5
7
DG AGRI C4
9
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
22 March 2012
25