Transcript Renewables in Lithuania: Reasons for Slownes in the Past

International conference
“Renewable Energy: Development and Sustainability”
Renewables in Lithuania:
Reasons for Slownes in the
Past and Future Expectations
Prof. Jurgis VILEMAS
Lithuanian Energy Institute
Vilnius, Hotel “SAS Radison”
June 10, 2008
In the past
• Very low imported fuel prices (less than 100$/1000m3)
in comparison with renewable energy production cost
until 2006–2007. Major renovation of buildings was not
cost efficient. Consequence: up to now in heating
sector main fuel is imported natural gas.
Only about 5% of buildings corresponds to modern
energy efficiency standards.
• Inherited from the past totally centralized energy sector
after restructuring, required more time than was
expected for building up the local initiative, skills,
knowledge and culture
• Renewable energy is small scale decentralized
technology requiring local operational skills and
in country capacities for equipment production and
maintenance
• Inherited district heating systems with major fuel –
heavy oil (1991~2000) without any metering in
production and consumption side was very attractive
place for non transparent business and self
enrichment of some individuals, who was not interested
in modernization
• Some flaws and mistakes in energy system
restructuring in 1997 left municipalities with very large
financial debts for many years with very limited
possibilities to renovate and introduce new fuels
(renewables)
• In spite of low electricity prices in Lithuania introduction
of heat pumps was not affordable for home owners
due to high installation cost (low disposable income)
Primary Fuel Balance of
District Heating System
90,0
80,0
70,0
%
81,7
79,6
77,6
59,1
52,5
50,0
44,1
38,1
40,0
27,3
22,7
18,7
17,2
20,0
10,0
83,6
75,5
72,0
68,5
60,0
30,0
82,3
80,1
1,2 3,0
2,0 1,5
2,00,8
0,0
1997
1998
1999
Natural gas
2,00,6
2000
4,0
1,3
2001
Heavy oil
5,0
0,8
2002
9,7
7,2
0,8
2003
Renewables
4,2
12,0
5,6
10,0
0,8
2004
2,1
2005
Other fuels
4,4
14,0
2,0
2006
4,6
16,2
1,5
2007
Changes in Use of
Renewable Energy Sources
10,0
9,2
9,0
9,0
8,7
8,3
8,0
7,9
8,0
8,0
7,7
7,0
6,5
6,0
4,1
4,0
2,0
5,7
5,7
5,1
5,0
3,0
6,1
6,0
2,8
2,5 2,0
2,3
2,0
1,9
1,4
1,0
1,0
1,0
3,4
3,9
3,8
3,6
3,6
3,4
3,3
2,8
1,5
1,5
1,7
2,6
1,7
1,9
2,0
2,0
3,0
2,1
3,2 2,7
2,2
2,2
2,3
3,6
2,4
2,5
1,0
0,0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Index of RES consumption (1990=1)
Share of RES-E from gross electricity consumption, %
Share of RES in primary energy, %
Consumption of
Renewable Energy Sources
900
800
700
ktoe
600
Other
500
Hydro
400
Wood
300
200
100
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Today
• Positive results of decentralisation of management
in 1997 and later privatisation start appear only in
recent years
• Fast prices rise from 2005 and recent natural gas
price shock created completely new situation,
extremely favourable for fast introduction of
renewables and other local fuels
• Appearance of local industry (production of different
boilers, metering and control equipment, etc.) design
and consulting services which can fully satisfy the needs
• Needed legislation for promotion of renewables is
partially available (feed in tariffs tax, exemtion etc.)
• But … renewables and particularly energy efficiency
is not governments real priority in energy sector.
Too strong and to one sided political concentration on
only one problem of Lithuanian energy sector – security
of electricity supplies left heat supply sector and energy
efficiency issues without adequate attention
In coming 5–10 years heat supply and renovation of
housing stock will be one of major economical, political
and social problems for the country in general and
problem No 1 in energy sector
• Situation is particularly dangerous because it can
coincide with possible economical slow down or
even crisis
Something about the future
• Strongest driver for possible radical change in
governments policy, energy industry and consumers
behaviour-permanently high prices for all types
of primary energy resources
• The success of Scandinavian countries is very valuable
subject for emulation and helps to reduce the
skepticism of some influenciable actors of Lithuanian
energy policy
• Strong strategical intension of Lithuanian Government
to reduce independence on imported energy may help
for speeder employment of local resources
• in Lithuanian National Energy Strategy there is quite
clear emphasis on energy efficiency and renewables:
 expansion of combined heat and electricity production;
 faster utilisation of wind energy;
 20% of renewables in 2020, but the strategy must be
supported by efficient real actions
Generation of Electricity from
Renewable Energy Sources
1800
1600
1400
1000
Wind PP
Biomass PP
800
600
400
200
0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
ktoe
1200
Hydro PP
Cogeneration Potential –
Power Production
10000
9100
Annual electricity production, GWh
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
Annual amount
of electricity
supplied to the
network of
present
cogeneration
power plants
Possible annual
amount
of electricity
supplied to the
network of present
cogeneration
power plants
5160
3000
2000
2000
1360
1000
0
1
Annual production of thermal energy, GWh
Cogeneration Potential –
Heat Production
9000
8080
8000
7000
6000
5400
5000
4000
Maximal
potential:
Possible maximal
annual heat production
in
cogeneration cycle
in DHS sector
Annual amount of
heat production
supplied to the network
of present cogeneration
power plants
3000
2000
1000
0
1
6160
Minimal
potential:
Possible minimal
annual heat production
in
cogeneration cycle
in DHS sector
• It looks that todays realities in energy markets
promotes the swift and substantial changes in
governmental policy and priorities, consumers
behaviour and opens great opportunities for
local business.
Thank You for attention!