Transcript De universiteit van de 21ste eeuw zal open zijn of niet zijn

DE UNIVERSITEIT VAN
DE 21STE EEUW ZAL
OPEN ZIJN OF NIET ZIJN
Dirk Van Damme
Head of the Innovation and Measuring
Progress division – OECD/EDU
Schema
• Hoger onderwijs is nog steeds de meest zinvolle
investering
• Innovatie is nodig ook in het hoger onderwijs
• Zal technologie verandering brengen?
• En de student?
• Enkele conclusies…
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HOGER ONDERWIJS IS
NOG STEEDS DE MEEST
ZINVOLLE INVESTERING
3
%
100
Norway
Iceland
Switzerland
Sweden
Netherlands
Slovenia
Germany
Denmark
Austria
Brazil
Portugal
United Kingdom
Luxembourg
Poland
Finland
Australia
Belgium
New Zealand
France
Czech Republic
OECD average
Israel
Slovak Republic
Canada
Ireland
Mexico
United States
Estonia
Greece
Spain
Japan
Chile
Hungary
Italy
Korea
Turkey
Positive relationship between education and employment
Percentage of 25-64 year-olds in employment, by level of education (2010)
Tertiary education
Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary
Below upper secondary
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Unemployment and the crisis
Unemployment rates of 25-64 year-olds, by educational attainment level
(2008, 2009 and 2010)
2009
Below upper
secondary
education (%)
2008
2010
Over 35% each year for the Slovak Republic
Tertiary
education
(%)
Estonia
Spain
Ireland
Greece
Slovak…
Turkey
United States
Portugal
Hungary
Poland
OECD average
Canada
Finland
France
Iceland
Slovenia
Germany
Israel
Belgium
Czech…
United…
Chile
Denmark
Italy
Sweden
Japan
Switzerland
Mexico
New Zealand
Luxembourg
Australia
Austria
Korea
Netherlands
Norway
Brazil
Upper
secondary and
post-secondary
non-tertiary (%)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
5
Hungary
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
United States
Ireland
Poland
Portugal
Germany
United Kingdom
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Austria
OECD average
Switzerland
Israel
Korea
Greece
Italy
Turkey
Finland
Japan
France
Spain
Canada
Estonia
Australia
Belgium
Denmark
Norway
Sweden
New Zealand
Relative earnings from employment
By level of educational attainment for 25-64 year-olds, upper secondary = 100
(2010 or latest available year)
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
Index
Below upper secondary education
Tertiary education
6
Tertiary-level attainment rate and labour
productivity across countries
Percentage of the 25-64 year-old population
that has attained tertiary education (2011)
55
Canada
50
Israel
45
Japan
Korea
40
US
UK
R² = 0,1972
New Zealand
Finland
Australia
Ireland
Switzerland
Estonia
Sweden
Belgium
Iceland
Denmark
Netherlands
Spain
France
Chile
Germany
Greece
Slovenia
Poland
35
30
25
Hungary
Slovak Rep
Czech Rep
Portugal
20
Mexico
15
Norway
Luxembourg
Austria
Italy
Turkey
10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Labour productivity: GDP per hour worked, current prices, USD (2011)
7
8
High-output systems are not necessarily
very efficient in tapping on all talents
Percentage of the 25-34 year-old population
that has attained tertiary education (2011)
60
55
Elitist systems with high output
Egalitarian systems with high output
Canada
50
45
Norway
New Zealand
US
Belgium France
Finland
Switzerland
40
Sweden
Spain Netherlands
Poland
35
Slovenia
Ireland
UK
Luxembourg
Australia
Iceland
Denmark
R² = 0,0557
Greece
30
Hungary
25
Germany
Portugal
Czech Rep
Austria
20
Italy
Turkey
15
Elitist systems with low output
10
0,20
0,30
Egalitarian systems with low output
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
Odds ratio of being a higher education student if parents have low levels of
education (2009)
9
Finland
United States
Belgium
Netherlands
Japan
Denmark
Austria
France
United Kingdom
Canada
Mexico
Greece
Hungary
Overall population growth
Czech Republic
OECD average
Switzerland
Australia
New Zealand
Slovak Republic
Italy
Iceland
%
8
Korea
Luxembourg
Portugal
Poland
Spain
Turkey
Ireland
Gemiddelde jaarlijkse groei van bevolking met
hoger-onderwijsniveau (1998-2008)
Attainment rate growth
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
INNOVATIE IS NODIG, OOK
IN HET HOGER ONDERWIJS
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Changing skill demand
Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution
Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)
Routine manual
65
60
Nonroutine manual
55
Routine cognitive
50
Nonroutine analytic
45
40
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Nonroutine interactive
Source: Levy and Murnane, 2005
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Critical skills for the most innovative jobs
Likelihood (odds ratios) of reporting the following job requirements: people
in the most innovative jobs vs. least innovative jobs
come with news ideas/solutions
acquire new knowledge
willingness to question ideas
alertness to opportunities
present ideas in audience
analytical thinking
master of your own field
coordinate activities
write and speak a foreign language
use computers and internet
make your meaning clear
use time efficiently
mobilize capacities of others
work productively with others
write reports or documents
perform under pressure
knowledge of other fields
negociate
assert your authority
2,97
2,44
2,34
2,24
2,18
2,15
2,11
2,05
2,02
2,00
1,99
1,98
1,97
1,95
1,94
1,81
1,76
1,76
1,56
1,00
Source: OECD, based on REFLEX and HEGESCO data
2,00
4,00
13
Maar onderwijs is zelf in geringe mate
een innoverende sector
70
Sector innovation index for process, instruments and tools
60
50
40
41
35.6
30
20
10
0
Source: Paul (2007)
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Levenslang leren nog steeds geen realiteit
Age of new entrants in tertiary education
Age at: 20th percentile
30
27
24
21
18
15
Age at: median
Age at: 80th percentile
ZAL TECHNOLOGIE
VERANDERING BRENGEN?
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Slow progress in educational technology:
Evolution of educational patenting: number and percentage of all patents
Number of PCT filings (left axis)
as percentage of all PCT filings (right axis)
500
0,50%
400
0,40%
300
0,30%
200
0,20%
100
0,10%
0
0,00%
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Online enrolment now over 30% of total
enrolment (US)
“taking at least one online course”
Allen & Seamon, 2011
18
Strategic importance of online
education
Allen & Seamon, 2011
19
Various modes of course delivery
Allen & Seamon, 2011
20
Main MOOC provider networks
The Tech, issue 132/34 of September 4, 2012 - http://tech.mit.edu/V132/PDF/N34.pdf
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22
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EN DE STUDENT?
25
Profiles of students with regard to
Internet use
OECD (2012)
26
Finland
Liechtenstein
New Zealand
Japan
Canada
Germany
Korea
Netherlands
Hungary
Ireland
Switzerland
Belgium
Australia
Austria
Sweden
Greece
Poland
Spain
Croatia
Macao-China
Lithuania
Italy
Slovenia
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Norway
Latvia
Iceland
Portugal
Denmark
Russian Federation
Chile
Turkey
Uruguay
Bulgaria
Thailand
Serbia
Jordan
Colombia
Qatar
Students are not yet well trained in
effective educational use of ICT
Frequency of use of computers at school and
student performance on PISA science scale
Frequent use
OECD, 2010
Moderate use
Rare or no use
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
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Three urban myths in education
• Three ‘urban myths’
– Learners as digital natives
– Individual learning styles of students
– Learners as autonomous self-educators
• Students are NOT the best managers of their
own learning (Kirschner & Van Meriënboer, 2013)
• Pedagogy and powerful education environments
are necessary
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ENKELE CONCLUSIES…
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Conclusies
• Een hogeronderwijs-kwalificatie blijft
individueel en maatschappelijk de meest zinvolle
investering
• Weliswaar trager dan bv. in de
onderzoeksfunctie zal technologie ook de
onderwijsrealiteit aan universiteiten veranderen
• Universiteiten zullen zich door innovatie moeten
aanpassen, en moeten daarbij het voortouw
nemen, zoals ze zelf ook innovatie in andere
sectoren met kennis aansturen
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Conclusies
• Open universiteiten zijn geen relicten uit een
romantisch verleden, maar voorlopers en wijzen
op veel punten de richting aan
• Naïef optimisme over zelfstandige leerders die
online leren, is ongewettigd; nog meer dan
vroeger zijn krachtige, goed ontworpen krachtige
leeromgevingen met veel sturing en begeleiding
noodzakelijk om succes te helpen realiseren.
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Hartelijk dank!
[email protected]
www.oecd.org/edu/ceri
twitter @VanDammeEDU
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