Transcript PowerPoint-presentation

Den internationella dimensionen
i miljöarbetet
Adj Prof. Johan Kuylenstierna
Executive Director
Stockholm Environment Institute
Energi , mat...
Klimat, vatten, mark...
Utmaningar, möjligheter...
Växande och krympande värld...
”Hyperconnected and globalized world”
World Economic Forum: Global Risks 2011
“The past 20 years….substantial progress….. Most people……
healthier, live longer, are more educated and have more access
to goods and services……… also in expanding people’s power to
select leaders, influence public decisions and share knowledge. “
UNDP 2010. Human Development Report 2010. Summary. 20th Anniversary
Edition. The Real Wealth of Nations: Pathways to Human Development.
(UNDP)
www.brookings.edu
www2.warwick.ac.uk
Mega
cities
1950
Mega cities 2015
7,231,108,460
5 maj, 14:27:37
Källa: U.N.
Population
Division
Source:
U.N. Population Division
The world economy has more than doubled since 1980 and is
expected to almost double by 2030
India
Real GDP1 by region, 1980 – 2030
CAGR,
1980 - 2010
USD trillions
93
5
Rest of Asia Pacific
Middle East and
Africa
Latin America
4%
China
OECD Asia Pacific
Europe and Eurasia
10%
50
3
3%
3
4
2%
22
3
2
3%
1980
2010
1 Real GDP: Real GDP (constant 2005 US$). Mexico is included in Latin America.
SOURCE: Projection from USDA(ERS), Actual data from World Bank
2030
North America
The middle class could grow by 3 billion people by 2030
Global middle class
Billions of people
4.88
3.25
0.11
0.23
0.31
0.32
0.68
1.85
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East and North Africa
Central and South America
3 billion
0.06 0.17
0.25
0.33
0.70
0.03
0.11
0.18
0.34
3.23
North America
Europe
0.66
Asia-Pacific
0.53
1.74
2009
2020
2030
SOURCE: Resource Revolution, McKinsey Global Institute
IPCC 5th Assessment Report
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
Source: IPCC AR5 WG1
Asia now accounts for ~46% of global emissions, but emissions
per capita are still much lower than in North America
GHG emissions, including land use change
and forestry, by region, 2010
Million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalents
21,325
% of global
GHG emissions per capita in total
2010, tCO2e per capita
emissions
Asia
46%
7,836
Europe
17%
7,502
North America
16%
Latin America
& the Caribbean
11%
Africa
9%
Oceania
2%
4,936
4,108
2
Per capita target for staying within
2 degrees of global temperature rise
SOURCE: World Resources Institute CAIT
Energikonsumtion per person (Btu)
More fossil than we can burn
New research shows listed companies inflate the carbon bubble by
$674billion a year. 60-80% of listed companies’ fossil fuel reserves
are ‘unburnable’, but $6trillion each decade is spent to develop more
Source: Carbon Tracker: http://www.carbontracker.org/
Tillväxt, primärenergi
OECD/EIS, 2013
OECD/EIS, 2013
Vatten som begränsa(n)d(e) resurs
Picture Source: Dr. Daniel Vermeer, Director, Global Water
Partnerships, The Coca-Cola Company
Southeast Asia, Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants
Southeast Asia, Long Term Change in Water Stress and Power Plants
(2025, IPCC Scenario A1B)
Livsmedels(o)trygghet
Source: von Grebmer et al. 2011
Jordbruksmark som strategisk resurs
Source: FAO/SOLAW
Phosphorus Price Soared in 2007-2008
World Bank Commodity Price Data (2010)
Konsumtion och förluster
Prediction is very difficult,
especially about the future.
Niels Bohr (1885 - 1962)
Generationsmålet…..
”..lösa sina stora miljöproblem
”utan att orsaka ökade miljö- och
hälsoproblem utanför Sveriges
gränser”.
”Sverige saknar strategi för trygg
livsmedelsförsörjning”
DN Debatt, 31 december 2012
Vilken roll kommer politiken att spela?
Economist, April 2013
http://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/business/reports
A resource-efficient Europe – Flagship initiative of the Europe
2020 Strategy (http://ec.europa.eu/resource-efficient-europe/)
Hållbarhetsmålen post 2015
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Action-oriented
Concise
Easy to communicate
Limited in number
Aspirational
Global in nature
Universally applicable to all countries while
taking into account different national realities,
capacities and levels of development and
respecting national policies and priorities.
"Everything should be made as simple
as possible, but not simpler."
A. Einstein
Tack!
[email protected]