Transcript FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON …

CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE USES
OF THE CLIMATE INFORMATION IN
THE AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM OF
CENTRAL ARGENTINA
Marta G. VINOCUR, Andrea V.
RIVAROLA and Roberto A. SEILER
UNIVERSITY OF RÍO CUARTO-Argentina
Paper prepared for Open Meeting of Global
Environmental Change Research Community
6-8 October 2001
Córdoba Province
Argentina
Study area
OBJECTIVES


To understand how climate information is
actually used and may be used in the future by
policymakers and end users, to improve
decisiones in the agricultural sector and to
mitigate the negative impact of climate hazards
To know stakeholders perception of climate risks
and how they incorporate climate information in
their decision-making process, according to the
political context and to the underlying level of
farmers’ vulnerability
Materials and Methods



In each municipio (county), we conducted a rapid
appraisal to determine the range of variation in farm
type and size, access to resources, infrastructure, etc
through interviewing key informant and focus-group.
A random sample of farmers (approximately 10% of the
total number) was chosen for individual interviews
(survey) reflecting the differences in farm/households
types.
Qualified groups, according to decision making levels
(grain dealers, cooperative managers, local utilities
providers, regional farmers consortium managers,
municipio authorities, etc.), were also interviewed.
Materials and Methods
Survey



Socio-economic characteristics of each household/farm
(farm size, farm type, tenure, technology applied,
access to capital, off-farm income, education, etc.)
Importance and sources of weather information; users’
knowledge of regional climate; users’ attitudes to
climate and weather forecast; users’ perception of the
value of climate forecast (credibility, ability to respond,
etc.); users’ preferences about timing, format and
content of a climate forecast.
Surveys’ compilation and data analysis were done
using an statistical package (SPSS).
Socio-economic characteristics
Farmers’ age
Education level
Farm size
30-45 years
29%
45-60 years
45%
> 60 years
21%
Primary
51%
High
26%
Univer.
21%
> 2000 ha
4%
500-2000 ha
42%
250-500 ha
33%
< 250 ha
21%
Socio-economic characteristics
 Farm type
Mixed type
> agric.
> livestock
equal
35%
25%
30%
soybean 88%;maize 96%; peanut 26%
Land tenure
owner
tenant
 Rent more land
55%
Request of credit
50%
Applied technology crop rotation
no till
hybrid seeds+pesticide+herbicide
irrigation
3%; fertilizers
93%
3%
100%
46%
95%
59%
Type of climate information
received by the farmer
Climate Forecast
None
3.8%
16.2%
Climate+Weather For.
18.1%
Weather Forecast
61.9%
Weather and Climate Information Related to Farmers Age
100
90
80
Percent
70
60
50
Inf ormation
40
30
None
20
Weather+Climate For.
Weather Forecast
10
Climate Forecast
0
15-30
30-45
45-60
Age
> 60
Percent
Weather and Climate Information Related to Farmers’
education level
100
90
80
70
60
50
Inf ormation
40
None
30
Weather+Climate For
20
Weather Forec ast
10
0
Climate Forecast
Primary Inc omp.
High Inc om.
Primary Comp.
Univ. Incomp.
High Comp.
Univ. Comp.
Eduaction-head of the f amily
Farmer's perception of ENSO impacts
on regional climate
80
70
Percent
60
67
50
40
30
20
17
10
11
0
Niño>rain-Niña<rain
Not understand impact
Niño<rain-Niña>rain
Farmer's perception
Never heard about
them
Farmer’s perception of ENSO impacts related to age
100
90
80
Percent
70
60
50
Farmers'perception
40
30
Never heard
20
Not understand
Niño<rain-Niña>rain
10
Niño >rain-Niña<rain
0
15-30
30-45
45-60
Age
> 60
Perception of ENSO related to farmers’ education level
Percent
How much does climate information
influence farmer's management decisions
70
60
58
50
40
30
20
10
20
13
9
0
strongly
moderately
somewhat
not at all
Influence of climate information on farmers’ managemet
decisiones related to farmers’age
100
90
80
Percent
70
60
50
Inf luence
40
30
Not at all
20
somewhat
Moderately
10
Strongly
0
15-30
30-45
45-60
Age
> 60
Influence of climate information on farmers’ management
decisiones related to farmers’education level
100
90
80
70
60
50
I nf luence
40
Not at all
30
Somewhat
20
Moderat ely
10
0
Strongly
Primary Inc om.
High Inc om.
Primary Comp.
Univ. Incom.
High Com.
Univ. Com.
Lev el of educat ion-Head of t he f amily
Weather and climate forecast: farmers' credibility
40
33
30
Percent
27
20
14
10
9
0
8
9
Weather and climate forecast: obstacles to their use
Lack of interest
5.8%
Not credibles
15.4%
Bad distr.channels
3.8%
Very general
8.7%
Tables/charts unclear
1.9%
Difficult to understand
5.8%
None
58.7%
Farmers' management decisions are also
influenced by:
30
30
25
23
23
Percent
20
10
0
Exp.National Prices
Exp. prices and prod
Exp.Nat.-Int. prices
none
Other information used in management decisions
related to farmers’age
100
90
80
Percent
70
60
50
Inf ormation
40
30
None
20
Prices + production
Nat.+Inter. prices
10
National prices
0
15-30
30-45
45-60
Age
> 60
Other information used in management decisions
related to farmers’ education level
100
90
80
70
60
Inf ormation
50
40
None
30
Prices + production
20
Nat. + int. prices
10
0
National prices
Primary Inc omp.
High Inc omp.
Primary Comp.
Univ. Incomp
High Comp.
Univ. Comp.
Lev el of education-head of the f amily
Which decisions would you probably
change in response to a climate forecast:





crop mix (area planted)
plant density
pesticide and fertlizer amount
planting date
other type
54%
76%
55%
69%
2%
Characteristics of an useful climate forecast



Timing
Content: spring rainfall; spring rainfall+summer temperat.
Format: means; means+actual data;comparison with past
years; above normal, near normal or below normal with
the associated probabilities.
Graphs only - 37%; tables only - 8%; tables and graphs 43%; explanations - 11%
Weather and climate information, obstacles to their use
related to farmers’ age
100
90
Obstacles to inf.use
80
70
Lack of interes
60
Not credibles
50
Bad distr. channels
Count
40
30
Very general
20
Tables/charts unclea
Diffic to understand
10
None
0
15-30
30-45
45-60
Age
> 60
Percent
Weather and climate information, obstacles to their use
related to farmers’ education level
100
90
Obstacl es to inf.use
80
Lac k of interes t
70
Not credibles
60
Bad dis tr. channel
50
40
Very general
30
T ables/ chart unclear
20
Diffic to unders tand
10
0
None
Primary inc omp.
High inc omp.
Primary comp.
Univ. incomp.
High comp.
Univ. comp.
Lev el of education-head of the f amily
Type of climate information received
by qualified groups
60
50
53
Percent
40
30
29
20
15
10
0
Weather forecast
Climate+Weather for.
Other type
None
Utility of the received climate information
by qualified groups
40
37
30
23
20
17
10
10
7
7
0
None
Grain dealers s trat.
Personal
General use
Livestoc k market str
Preventive acti ons
Dissemination of the climate information
by qualified groups
None
6.7%
Internal use
33.3%
Other inst. and
prevention agencies
6.7%
Farmers
43.3%
General Public
10.0%
How qualified groups disseminate
climate information?
Bulletins-booklets
11.1%
Massive comm.media
27.8%
Fax
5.6%
Meetings-conferences
55.6%
Weather and Climate Forecast: Obstacles to their use
by qualified groups
Lac k of credibi lity
5.9%
Bad dis trib. channel
5.9%
Very general
17.6%
Not clear
2.9%
None
67.6%
CONCLUSIONS
Users of climate and weather information required:
 Forecast tailored to their needs
 Improve accuracy, timing and format
 Downscale temporally and spatially to users’ specific
locations
To promote climate forecast use, it is necessary:
 to improve users’ knowledge about regional weather
and climate
 to educate users about the differences between
weather and climate forecasts.
 to analyze institutional ways of dissemination of
climate information
 to improve communication between researchers and
end users