Systems Analysis and Decision Support

Prof. Raimo P. Hämäläinen Dr. Post doc PhD students Kai Virtanen Mikko Viinikainen M.Sc. students Rachel Jones Ville Mattila Jouni Pousi Juha Törmänen Summer trainees Ilkka Leppänen Pekka Laitila Heikki Puustinen Eero Rantala Mikko Harju Tuomas Lahtinen Aalto University • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis SAL – May 2012 Joonas Ollila Suvi Sillanpää 1

Research topics

Systems analysis and decision support • Dynamic systems – Strategy of flight – Maintenance of aircraft • Multicriteria decision modeling and games – Web software • Environment – New tools for facilitation • Systems intelligence Aalto University • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis SAL – May 2012 2

Impact

Systems analysis and decision support • Theory of preference programming – Decision under uncertainty – Group decision • Decisionarium web site – Repository for worldwide use of decision support software • Best-practices for environmental decision analysis • Nuclear risk management model implemented in European Union and India Aalto University • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis SAL – May 2012 3

Where tomorrow?

Systems analysis and decision support • National Doctoral Program in Systems Analysis, Decision Making and Risk Management (Aalto School of Science and School of Economics, Univ. of Jyväskylä, Univ. of Turku, Åbo Akademi) • Systems thinking and systems intelligence • Multicriteria optimization and metamodeling in simulation • Dynamic influence diagrams • Neuroeconomics and behavioural studies Aalto University • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis SAL – May 2012 4

Optimization and Game Theory Models and Algorithms

Prof. Harri Ehtamo Dr.

Post doc PhD students Kimmo Berg Matteo Brunelli Summer trainees Simo Heliövaara Juha-Matti Kuusinen Mirko Ruokokoski Janne Sorsa Vesa Husgafvel Markus Laitinen Ilmari Pärnänen Anton von Schantz Aalto University • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis SAL – May 2012 5

Research topics

Optimization and game theory models and algorithms • Optimization algorithms for pricing of goods – Focus on monopoly pricing problems – How to compute optimal bundles under limited information?

• Stochastic Vehicle Routing Optimization • Game theory models and algorithms to describe large crowd dynamics in simulation environment Aalto University • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis SAL – May 2012 6

Impact

Optimization and game theory models and algorithms • Modelling and forecasting of people flow in high rise buildings • Modelling of safe evacuation of people from large burning buildings Aalto University • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis SAL – May 2012 7

Where tomorrow?

Optimization and game theory models and algorithms • Development of novel MILP algorithms for vehicle routing problems – Special emphasis on elevator group control – Development of new mathematical concepts based on problem symmetry – Collaboration with leading research groups in the field, e.g., HEC Montreal • Development of learning algorithms based on evolutionary game theory to describe large crowd dynamics – Collaboration with VTT, NIST/USA, Dresden University, to develop a simulation model for fire safety analysis of large buildings Aalto University • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis SAL – May 2012 8

Decision Models and Foresight Methodologies

Dr.

Prof. Ahti Salo Juuso Liesiö PhD students Jussi Kangaspunta Antti Toppila Summer trainees Anssi Käki Eeva Vilkkumaa Antti Punkka Pekka Mild Visiting Researcher Jerri Nummenpalo Mariko Landström Aalto University • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis SAL – May 2012 Yongjun Li 9

Research topics

Decision models and foresight methodologies • Portfolio decision analysis for allocating resources to non-traded investment opportunities

Theory Method ologies Decision models Decisions

– Uncertainties  Scenarios & robustness – Multiple criteria – Stakeholders  Preference modelling  Decision processes – Constraints & dynamics  Optimization models – Several resources  Efficiency analysis Aalto University • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis SAL – May 2012 10

Impact

Decision models and foresight methodologies • International research awards (INFORMS) • Major foresight projects – FinnSight 2015, Strategic Research Agendas • Resource allocation decisions – National funding plans for road maintenance – Standardization investments at Nokia • Efficiency analyses – Identification of cost-effective weapons systems – Funding channels and the productivity of research Aalto University • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis SAL – May 2012 11

Where tomorrow?

Decision models and foresight methodologies • A world-leader in Portfolio Decision Analysis (PDA) – Book to be published by Springer • Design of information acquisition strategies in project portfolio selection – Relevant to various funding agencies – Collaboration with London Business School • Portfolio optimization of risk management plans – Collaboration with the University of Southern California Aalto University • Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis SAL – May 2012 12