NCAR Initiative on Weather and Climate Impact Assessment Science (WCIAS)

L. O. Mearns, Director D. Nychka, Acting Director, 03 L. Dilling, Project Manager http://www.assessment.ucar.edu

Initiative Review August 3-4, 2004

Introduction to the Assessment Initiative

• NCAR context • Motivation for WCIAS Initiative • Strategy • Initiative Themes/Goals – Uncertainty – Extremes – Climate and Health • Long-term vision • Agenda for the Review

The NCAR Initiative Context

• New initiatives were selected competitively to: – develop new research strands at NCAR – Encourage integration across NCAR • Process started in FY2001, funding in FY2002 • Several large initiatives were funded, e.g.: – Biogeosciences – Data Assimilation – Water Cycle across Scales – Wildland Fire R&D Collaboratory AND… – Weather and Climate Impact Assessment Science (WCIAS)

What is Impact Assessment?

Practice of identifying and evaluating the detrimental and beneficial consequences of phenomena such as weather and climate on natural and human systems.

However, to conduct effective, high quality assessments, scientists and society must have the appropriate methods, tools, and research.

WCIAS: Overarching Goal

To improve society’s ability to manage weather and climate risks by creating and providing research tools and methods at the critical frontiers of impact assessment science.

WCIAS Strategy

• Filling critical gaps in weather and climate impact assessment science • Developing integrating methods • Moving toward decision-making as a centerpiece • Promoting integration of assessment science activities at NCAR, nationally and internationally

Filling Critical Gaps in Three Areas:

1. Uncertainty Goal: To support improved responses to weather and climate risks by understanding and characterizing the uncertainties throughout the assessment process that affect decision-making.

2. Extreme Events Goal: To increase the resilience of human populations to extreme weather and climate events through improved tools, modeling and data.

3. Climate and Human Health Goal: To catalyze and nurture an interdisciplinary research community studying the effects of climate on human health.

Why these Three Themes ?

• Need for significant methodological development and integration – as emphasized in IPCC, USNA, other national/international assessments • Areas in which NCAR physical science/statistical expertise and drawn towards environmental and societal aspects (ESIG) can be leveraged • The three themes are inter-related and each can help in the development of the others

1.Critical Gaps in Uncertainty

“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one.” -Voltaire

1. Critical Gaps in Uncertainty

• Crucial conceptual confusions remain in research programs on uncertainty – e.g., reduction vs. characterization • Limitations of climate scenarios – opposite directions of change in precipitation – how to evaluate impacts? • Lack of research on regional-scale uncertainties – still most work on global scale probabilities of climate change

Projections of Future Climate Spatial Scale of Uncertainty T ?P

T P T ??P

1. Critical Gaps in Uncertainty cont.

• Missing forcings – e.g., land cover change, solar variability, volcanoes • Failure to clearly connect stakeholder decision-needs to quantification of uncertainty of future climate

U.S. Workshop on Climate Projections, Uncertainty, and Scenarios for Impacts Assessment 17-19 July 2002 National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado

1) Decision-makers/Resource managers 2) Impacts community 3) Emissions scenarios/other forcing scenarios group 4) Climate modelers (global/regional)/Climate data analysts 5) Experts in uncertainty 6) Agency/program representatives

1. Critical Gaps in Uncertainty

• Characterizing uncertainty on regional scales: regional probabilities, climate simulations • Extending capabilities of scenarios by exploring forcing uncertainty and assumptions: Land cover change, paleo-modeling

1. Critical Gaps Filled in Uncertainty

• Developed new methods to be used for AR4 for probabilistic regional climate forecasts • Incorporated land cover change into simulations for scenario development • Challenged paleo assumptions, including stationarity of teleconnections, proxies, and solar forcing

2. Critical Gaps in Extremes

Frequency of mid-latitude storms in the future??

IPCC WG 1 High uncertainty: Unwilling to list probability in summary table IPCC WG 2 High uncertainty, but also high impact: Included in summary table even with high uncertainty

2. Critical Gaps in Extremes

• Understanding the trend of extreme events most relevant to impacts (e.g., heat waves, onset of frost days) in a changing climate • Understanding the distribution and frequency of extreme phenomena (e.g., tornadoes) under a changing climate • Improved quantification of extreme event observations and new tools to study extreme events in meteorological records

733 deaths in July 1995 in Chicago from heat wave

2. Critical Gaps Filled: Extremes

• Experiments to examine future occurrence and severity of heat waves and frost days from GCMs • Global reanalysis data set being used to examine potential for severe storms • Aviation extremes being better quantified

Critical Gaps 3: Climate and Health

• Both temperature and precipitation extremes are important contributors to risks to human health • Human health risks of great importance to public and decision-makers (high dread factor) • Human health is one of the less well developed impacts areas (e.g., compared to agriculture or water resources) • Many uncertainties in climate-health link (e.g., vector-borne disease)

Need for Health/Climate/Environment Programs Specific recommendations from the

National Academy of Sciences

Report of the Committee on Climate, Ecosystems, Infectious Disease, and Human Health (2001): Development of

educational programs

for health workers that explore environmental and socio-economic factors

Critical Gaps Filled: Climate and Health • Through an annual Summer Colloquium on Climate and Health we support and nurture a new community of climate/health researchers • The first Colloquium was held at NCAR July 21-28, 2004

Developing Integrating Methods

• In order to meet the goals and fill critical gaps, new methods are needed • The WCIAS Initiative has developed new tools and methods to meet this need, including: – The Extremes Toolkit – an online, free tool that allows users to analyze data using extreme value theory, to estimate trends and changes in extremes – Integration of climate change probabilities with an integrated water resource model – A decision-centered approach to extremes such as flooding and wildfire risk

Towards Decision-Making as a Centerpiece

Decision-Making (Assessment of needs, decision entry points, institutional constraints, politics etc.) Mitigation Adaptation

Examples of Linkages Among Extremes Projects Climate (OBS) Spatial Scaling of Extremes (Validation) Analysis from Climate Models Probability Estimates Changes in Extremes, Important to Society (e.g. Heat Waves, Tornados) Extremes Tool Kit Downscaling of Extreme Phenomena

Social Vulnerability

Extremes Important to Society Societal Impacts (e.g. Heat Mortality) Decision Making

Need for Integration

Unique Characteristics

• Allows for deep exploration of new topics – risk taking – that is unusual for a conventional rfp-funded project • Rare opportunity to pursue methods driven research that will serve a societal need – available funding is limited • Allows for both predictable and unpredictable synergies among researchers, programs, institutions

Long-term Goals

– NCAR is recognized as a national and international leader in Integrated Uncertainty Analysis including decision making (ISSE) – NCAR creates a complete, integrated program on extreme events (atmospheric science, statistics, societal vulnerability) – Climate and Health Annual Summer Colloquium becomes world-class program in training students in this interdisciplinary field

Introducing Our Team…

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Linda Mearns Doug Nychka Jerry Meehl Caspar Amman Gordon Bonan Harold Brooks Barbara Brown Lisa Dilling Mary Downton Dorin Drignei Johan Feddema Susan Foster Eric Gilleland Bob Harriss Rebecca Haacker-Santos Vicki Holzhauer Rick Katz Kathy Miller • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Rebecca Morss Susi Moser Philippe Naveau Keith Oleson Jen Oxelson Jonathan Patz Matt Pocernich Marcia Politovich Uli Schneider Richard Smith Claudia Tebaldi Robert Tomas Gene Wahl Warren Washington Tom Wigley Olga Wilhelmi David Yates In 5 UCAR/NCAR divisions, many programs, and multiple universities

Today’s Agenda

• Overview • Filling Critical Gaps – highlights • Developing Integrating Methods -- Lunch - • Moving Toward Decision-Making as a Centerpiece • Integration, Management, and the Future – Integration, Education, Collaboration – Management and Budget – Future Plans