Transcript No Slide Title

Conclusions and Summary
• Once again: Goals and Strategy
• Integration
– Within NCAR, nationally, and internationally
• Education
• Management and Budget
• Future Plans
WCIAS: Overarching Goal
To improve society’s ability to manage
weather and climate risks by creating and
providing research tools and methods at the
critical frontiers of impact assessment
science.
Goals in Each Theme
1. To support improved responses to weather
and climate risks by understanding and
characterizing the uncertainties affecting the
decision-making process.
2. To increase the resilience of human
populations to extreme weather and climate
events through improved tools, modeling,
and data.
3. To catalyze and nurture an interdisciplinary
research community studying the effects of climate on
human health.
WCIAS Strategy
• Filling critical gaps in weather and climate
impact assessment science
• Developing integrating methods
• Moving toward decision-making as a
centerpiece
• Promoting integration of assessment
science activities at NCAR, nationally, and
internationally
Integration within NCAR
• CGD-ESIG-GSP (Flood project)
• CGD-GSP-RAP-ESIG (Integrated uncertainty
analysis in water resources)
• Expanded role of GSP throughout NCAR
• Other initiatives (Biogeosciences, Water, Fire,
GIS)
Divisional Budget Structure FY04
FY04 Assessment Initiative
Divisional Allocation
$683,556
CGD, 23%
ESIG, 50%
GSP, 10%
RAP, 17%
Links to Other Initiatives
Wildland Fire
Biogeosciences
Extremes
Water Cycle across
Scales
Uncertainty
GIS
Cyberinfrastructure
Climate / Health
WCIAS
Initiative Linkages
• Wildland Fire – developed model to forecast
location of housing developments – AI improves
predictive model by identifying sensitivity of
decisions to people’s understanding of fire risks
• Water Cycle across Scales – plans to use
CRCM outputs in spatial scaling of extremes;
analysis of future changes in floods and
droughts
• Cyberinfrastructure – use of structure to develop
distribution system for high-resolution climate
scenarios
Climate Variability and Uncertainty
in Flood Hazard Planning
Link between GIS and the
Weather and Climate Impact
Assessment Initiatives
Mapping rainfall data to help
better understand past
flooding events along
Colorado’s Front Range
Spatial and temporal
variability of extreme
precipitation events
Good case for spatial
statistics
Mary Downton, et al.
Biogeosciences
Land use/cover
change
ESM
Impacts
Assessment
Climate Impacts on
Hydrology
Land Surface / Atmosphere
Managed and
Interaction
Unmanaged
Ecosystems
Atmosphere / Soil
Carbon / Nitrogen Cycling
Initiative Collaboration with the
Wider Research Community
• Significant involvement of university
community
• NARCCAP – integration across NCAR,
Universities, CCSP, and International
Communities (and highlighting CCSM)
• Links with international programs –
(e.g., PIK, Tyndall Centre)
Recent University Participation
• Uncertainty – R. Smith (U. North Carolina); M. Mann
(U. Virginia); L. Sloan (UC Santa Cruz); W. Gutowski
(Iowa State), P. Duffy (UC Berkeley), A. Cullen (U.
Washington), J. Feddema (U. Kansas)
• Extremes – P. Naveau (U. Colorado), E. Gruntfest (U.
Colorado), H. Brooks (U. Oklahoma); R. Smith (U.
North Carolina)
• Climate and Health – J. Patz (Johns Hopkins); M.
Wilson (U. Michigan); J. Mayer (U. Washington)
NARCCAP
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
Program
Multiple AOGCM and RCM Climate Scenarios Project over North America
Main Goals:
• Exploration of multiple uncertainties in
regional model and global climate
model regional projections
• Development of multiple highresolution regional climate scenarios for
use in impacts models
NARCCAP Domain
NARCCAP Plan
A2 Emissions Scenario
HadCM3
GFDL
CCSM
1960-1990 current
Provide boundary conditions
MM5
Iowa State/
PNNL
link to European
Prudence
CGCM3
2040-2070 future
RegCM3
CRCM
HadRM3
RSM
WRF
UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
Quebec,
Ouranos
Hadley Centre
Scripps
NCAR/
PNNL
Contributions to IPCC AR4
• Tebaldi et al. method being used as the
main method for integrating new AOGCM
simulation results on regional scale
• WG 1 Technical Support Unit wishes to
see other global climate modeling groups
perform SRES land cover change
experiments similar to WCIAS Initiative
Linkages with International
Community
• Numerous international presentations
(Europe, Canada)
• Formal links (MOUs) being established
with PIK and the Tyndall Centre
Educational Components
• Climate and Health Program – continuation of
interdisciplinary education program on
climate and health – Climate and Health
Summer Colloquium (July 21-28, 2004)
• Paleo Project – includes subproject of
Education and Outreach – educational
display on paleo climate (see poster)
Climate and Health Colloquium
Summer 2004 Sessions:
•
•
•
•
•
Climate and Climate Modeling
Climate and Infectious Diseases
Remote Sensing and GIS
Heat Mortality and Air Pollution
Societal Responses, Assessment
and Communication
http://www.asp.ucar.edu/colloquium/2004/CH/index.html
Professional Development:
Roles of Early Career Scientists
• Lisa Dilling (ESIG) – AI project manager
• Caspar Amman (CGD) – PI of paleo project
• Susi Moser and Lisa Dilling (ESIG) –
Leaders of decision-making theme in WCIAS
• Claudia Tebaldi (ESIG) – Lead author on key
papers on regional climate probabilities
• Dave Yates (RAP) – Key role in hydrology
modeling in uncertainty theme
• Rebecca Morss, Olga Wilhelmi (ESIG) – Key
participants in flood project
Intra-Initiative Learning
• Development of greater interdisciplinarity
among the participants in the WCIAS
• This development is an ongoing process
• Catalyzes integration within NCAR
Initiative Management and
Planning
General Planning Process of Assessment
Initiative
• Four meetings with interested NCAR staff and several ESIGspecific planning meetings held to develop the three themes
(second half of 2000 and first half of 2001)
• Consultation with external collaborators
• Written contributions from core group of interested staff,
including all ESIG scientists
• Several document iterations
• One follow-up planning meeting held August 2001
• Several more detailed follow-up planning meetings on
individual themes held in September/October 2001
• Initial funding provided in FY 2002 ($214K)
Budget Structure by Theme
Assessment Initiative
Funding by Theme, FY02-FY04
Climate &
Health
700,000
600,000
Funding
500,000
400,000
Extremes
300,000
200,000
100,000
Uncertainty
-
$214,624
2002
$657,769
2003
Fiscal Year
$683,556
2004
FY02 Assessment Initiative
Divisional Allocation
$214,624
RAP, 29%
ESIG, 71%
FY03 Assessment Initiative
Divisional Allocation
$657,769
CGD, 17%
GSP, 10%
ESIG, 55%
RAP, 18%
FY04 Assessment Initiative
Divisional Allocation
$672,000
CGD, 23%
ESIG, 50%
GSP, 10%
RAP, 17%
WCIAS Leverages Other Funds
• NASA, NOAA, NCAR ASP – Climate and Health
$92K total
• NSF – Land cover data bases - $170K
• HARC – Human dimensions of the Arctic - $60K
• NSF – CMG: Development of spatio-temporal
and multi-resolution methods for detection
impacts of volcanic and solar forcings in climate
– $300K
• NOAA-OGP – Scales of decision-making and
the carbon cycle – $285K
• DOE, NSF, NOAA – various amounts for
NARCCAP
• GSP program at NCAR – various amounts
Initiative Management
L.O.Mearns
Director
V. Holzhauer
- Financial Administrator
J. Oxelson
-Webmaster
R. Haacker-Santos
- Admin. Assistant
L. Dilling
Project Manager
D. Nychka
Acting Dir. 03
Mentors
B. Harriss
W. Washington
Advisory Board
J. Meehl
T.Wigley
K.Miller
B.Brown
R.Morss
Project Leads (11)
C. Amman
Climate Variability of Past Centuries
G. Bonan
Land Cover Uncertainties
M. Downton
Flood Hazards Planning
B.Brown
Extremes in Aviation
K. Miller
Managing Wildland Fire Risk
H. Brooks
Downscaling of Extreme
Phenomena
D. Nychka/D. Yates
Uncertainty in Model Simulations
J.Meehl
Climate Model Extremes
R.Katz
Extremes Toolkit
L. Mearns/J.Patz
Climate and Health
S. Moser
Decision Making
and Uncertainty
Management Activities
• Monthly or bimonthly meetings –
– Presentations on project work
– Discussions with project advisory board and
leads on project status, integration
opportunities across projects
– Individual project meetings
– March 2003-March 2004 management
activities lead by Doug Nychka (Acting
Director) and L. Dilling (Project Manager)
The (uncertain) Future
Near and Long-term
FY05 Selected Plans
• Land Cover – application of CLM/CCSM to
SRES land cover scenarios – inclusion of
urban area expansion, interactive crop
models, soil degradation effects
• Regional Probabilities of Climate Change –
bivariate model, spatial correlation, expert
judgment of climate modelers for formation of
priors, role in IPCC – use in impacts and for
decision-making (e.g., UKCIP)
FY05 Selected Plans (cont.)
• Changes in extreme sea surface
temperatures and effects on coral
reef health
• Further application of extreme value theory
– Analysis of heat waves (i.e., cluster maxima and
length)
– Determination of field significance of extremes
– Detecting trends in extremes in observed data
FY05 Selected Plans (cont.)
Decision-making focus
• NCAR-RISA Collaboration
• Presenting Uncertainty to Decision-Makers
(Rand)
• Feasibility Limits of Adaptation Strategies to
Sea-Level Rise
• Decision-Making at the Climate-Health
Interface
• Societal Use of Weather Information
• Scales of Decision-Making
– Carbon flux management
– Water resource management
Vision – Future Plans
Long term goals (5 years and beyond)
– NCAR is recognized as national/international
leader in Integrated Uncertainty Analysis including
Decision Making (ISSE)
– NCAR creates a complete, integrated program on
extreme events (atmospheric science, statistics,
societal vulnerability, decision-making)
– Climate and Health Annual Summer Colloquium
becomes world-class program in training students
in this interdisciplinary field
Long-term Vision
To improve society’s ability to manage weather and climate risks by
creating and providing research tools and methods at the critical
frontiers of impact assessment science.
The WCIAS Initiative fills a need to bridge
between:
– Global/regional modeling/observations and
regional assessments
– Physical sciences knowledge and tools, and
environmental and social science
– Science/academia and decision-makers
Our Ongoing Commitment
• Conduct cutting-edge, innovative research at the
nexus of physical and social sciences
• Build novel partnerships internally and externally
• Maintain NCAR’s high visibility at the regional,
national, and international levels to ensure that
needs for advancements in assessment science
are being met
• Create innovative approaches to orient research
in assessment science toward decision-making
as a central focus
Vulnerability
Decision-making
Global Models
Scenarios
Health and Ecology
Weather
and Climate
Impact
Assessment
Science
Regional Assessment
Inter/national Assessment
Statistics and Physical Sciences