Transcript Slide 1

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Future Earth
research for global sustainability
The purpose of my presentation
o Seek CAETS’ input on relevant international engineering
research programmes of relevance to Future Earth
o Ask the CAETS community how they would like to be
engaged
Future Earth: Research for global sustainability
1.
1. Why? Who? What?
2. Design process
3. Research
4. Next steps
2
Future Earth: a framework to unify existing bodies
Global Environmental Change Programmes
FUTURE
EARTH
1991
1980
1986
1996
2001
and their partnership
all co-sponsored by ICSU
3
2013
Growing
Human Pressure
[20/80 dilemma]
Climate change
Ecosystem
decline
[560/450/400 dilemma]
[60 % loss dilemma]
Surprise
[99/1 dilemma]
2
2
4
concentrations
acceleration of the
Overfishing
human entreprise”,
WaterWill
& food
security
Professor
Steffen
2010-2020
”theCOgreat
, N O, CH
Land degradation
Loss Biodiversity
The
Planetary
…..
Response
to the
drivers of the
Anthropocene
1900
1950
From: Steffen et al. 2004
2000
A critical juncture for humanity:
pace and scale of change exceed
safe planetary boundaries
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Some of the challenges we face
o Feeding nine billion people within sustainable
planetary boundaries
o Reducing disaster risks
o Valuing and protecting nature’s services and
biodiversity
o Adapting to a warmer and more urban world
o Transitioning to low carbon societies
o Providing income and innovation opportunities
through transformations to global sustainability
o Aligning governance with stewardship
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2009-2011: ICSU-ISSC Visioning
Towards a holistic approach to Earth system science
Five Grand Challenges: a new way of doing research
An overarching framework
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A 10-year initiative by a new global Alliance
Future Earth:
research for global
sustainability
WMO is an observer
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Future Earth: goal
To provide the knowledge required
for societies in the world to face risks posed by
global environmental change
and to seize opportunities in a transition
to global sustainability
Future Earth: can we answer ...
How and why the global environment is changing;
What are likely future changes and what the implications
are for human wellbeing and other species;
What choices can be made to reduce harmful risks and
vulnerabilities and enhance resilience;
and how this knowledge can support decisions and
sustainable development?
Conceptual framework for Future Earth
Human
Development
Trajectories
towards
Global
Sustainability
Human
Responses
Regional and
Global
Environmental
Changes
Impacts on
People and
Societies
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Future Earth attributes
A global platform
for international research collaboration
o augments earth system science with impacts of
environmental change on people, adaptation and
transformation
o delivers interdisciplinary research on global
environmental change for sustainable development
o strengthens partnership between
researchers/funders/users (co-design)
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2. Design process
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The Transition Team
Disciplines, sectors, regions
for a truly new co-design effort
17 individual capacity members, 12 ex-officio (ICSU, ISSC, Belmont Forum, UNESCO, UNU, UNEP)
and Global Environmental Change Programmes Directors
Timeline towards implementation
18-month
initial design
interim
governance
Transition Team
Jun
2011
Dec Jan
2012 2013
ESSP
ends
Future Earth
10-year initiative
May
2014
2022
Interim
secretariat
Operational
secretariat
Interim
governance
Governing
Council
Science
Committee
Integration of existing
projects
Call for new projects
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Transition Team deliverables
o An initial research framework
o An institutional design
o A strategy for outreach, education,
stakeholder engagement
o A name for the initiative
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3. Research
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Criteria for Future Earth research
o From fundamental to actionable
Earth system research for global
sustainability
o Answers to complex questions that
require international collaboration
o Co-design and co-production of
knowledge
o Integration of natural, economic,
engineering, arts, humanities and
social sciences
o Regional to global scale
How can science support a rights-based global
transition to a low-carbon world economy?
WBGU, 2009
Organizing Future Earth research
A number of “integrated research themes (IRTs)”:
thematic areas in which interdisciplinary research
will be carried out. Each IRT:
o addresses a number of key integrative questions
o is populated by existing/new projects
o is overseen by a research committee
o can access a number of cross-cutting capabilities
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Proposed Integrated Research Themes
1. The State of the Planet: Observing, explaining, projecting Earth and societal
system trends, drivers, and processes and their interactions
2. Responses to global environmental change: Understanding and evaluating
current strategies for governing and managing the global environment
across scales and sectors
3. Reducing Risks: Anticipating global thresholds, improving resilience and
reducing disaster risks
4. Resources for development and wellbeing: Providing the knowledge for
sustainable, secure and fair stewardship of food, water, health, energy,
materials and other ecosystem services
5. Pivotal Places: Understanding global change in cities, regions, and critical
biomes
6. Living with the Sea: Oceans, coasts and blue societies
7. Transformative Pathways: Towards a Sustainable Future Earth
…
Note: IRTs to be finalized through consultations
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Proposed cross-cutting capabilities
C1
Observing Systems
C2
Data Systems
C3
Earth System Modeling
C4
Theory Development
C5
Synthesis and Assessments
C6
Capacity Development and Education
C7
Communication and the Science-Policy Interface
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4. Next steps
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Establishing a
governance structure
o An overarching governing
council and science
committee
o A distributed institutional
design engaging the global
north and south
o A global network initiative
and nodes of leadership and
excellence
Identifying stakeholders
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Coming soon
Second half 2012
o On-line consultation on the research framework
o Four regional workshops on the overall plan
Early 2013
o Establishment of a Future Earth Scientific Committee
o Interim Secretariat and Governing Council
Mid 2014
o Fully operational Future Earth
For more information on Future Earth
www.icsu.org/future-earth
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