Transcript Slide 1
Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural SSA: Targeting the Poor
Doug Merrey FANRPAN Regional Dialogue 2 September 2008, Lilongwe, Malawi
Outline
Overview (adapted from Jerry Nelson, IFPRI) Climate change and variability —impacts on the poor Adaptation strategies Project goals Outcome of Kickoff Workshop Roles of FANRPAN and ASARECA Conclusions
Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change & Variability
Rich countries emit majority of GHGs Poor countries are more vulnerable Geography (hotter, less rain, more variation) Greater dependence on agriculture and natural resources Limited infrastructure and low-input agriculture Low income, poverty and malnutrition Inadequate complementary services, like health and education Weak institutions Thus, lower adaptive capacity (less resilience) Location matters!
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Much Adaptation Policy is Extension of Good Development Policy
Promote growth and diversification Invest in research and development, education and health Improve international trade system Enhance resilience to disasters and improving disaster management Promote risk-sharing, including social safety nets, weather insurance Page 4
Types of Adaptation
Autonomous or spontaneous adaptations
Response to observed/anticipated climate change without intervention by a public agency Initiatives by private actors rather than governments, triggered by market or welfare changes induced by actual or anticipated climate change
Policy-driven or planned adaptation
Proactive response Result of deliberate policy decision on the part of public agencies Page 5
Adaptation Responses and Issues
Type of response
Short run Long run Issues
Autonomous Policy-driven
• Crop choice, crop area, planting dates • Risk-pooling insurance • Private investment (on-farm irrigation) • Private crop research • Relocation • Adaptive capacity of poor • Social safety nets • • •
Improved forecasting Policy reform Technology dissemination
• •
Public investment (water storage, roads, info infrastructure) Public crop research
• •
Uncertain returns to investment Targeting
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Effective Adaptation Policy Strategies
Must go beyond good development policy to explicitly target the impacts of climate change, particularly on the poor Requires
spatially targeted adaptation
Market signals essential factor in determining the responses to a changing environment but involves potentially expensive time lags and overlooks equity Climate change adaptation must therefore be proactive, not merely reactive Page 7
Why does location matter?
Where do the global climate models agree (yellow/green) and disagree (blue/red) Low emissions scenario
High agreement southern & eastern Africa
Change in Precipitation 2000 - 2050 (mm/month) June,
high
emissions scenario Black – no change Yellow – decrease in mean Blue/green – increase in mean
A lot of yellow! Decreasing mean rainfall
Project Goals
Assess where should adaptation policies/programs be targeted Identify what kinds of adaptations might be cost-effective and pro-poor Propose methods and tools for policy makers to evaluate options Page 11
Planned Project Products
Global change scenarios Changes in climate, land use, socio-economic factors, and alternative policies Typology of production systems Integrates biophysical and socio-economic factors Household-level impact and response matrix Micro-level adaptation case studies Policy decision framework tools Page 12
FANRPAN Hosted Kick-off Workshop 23-25 June 2008
Outcomes
Identified large number of related projects — agreed to cooperate and build synergies Data base of projects, institutions, individuals working on adaptation to climate change Commitment of partners present to collaborate IFPRI, FANRPAN, ASARECA, two German partners (PIK, ZALF), represented governments, African research institutions Work plan agreed Ideas contributing to project implementation
Indicative List of Suggestions
Agriculture in a wider socio-economic context Economic diversification = adaptation strategy Target and sensitize wide spectrum of stakeholders & decision makers Participatory pro-active approach with policy makers Regional focus (SADC, COMESA) makes more sense than purely national approach Capacity building and practical adaptive strategies will be more valuable than academic publications
Roles —FANRPAN & ASARECA
Facilitate access to data, linkages of international with regional scientists
Networking function critical given growing number of projects and activities
Assist in design of socio-economic scenarios Organize workshops and consultations with key decision makers Policy dialogues as results emerge Facilitate linking regional students with capacity building opportunities See PhD opportunity at www.fanrpan.org
Conclusion
o o Project provides opportunity to build regional linkages and capacity Our strength is capacity to bring researchers together with regional stakeholders, decision makers Partnership with ASARECA a valuable opportunity with future potential benefits for region Measures to strengthening capacity for adaptation to climate variability and change is usually good developmental policy But as a recent Norwegian review of its Malawi projects show, there are implications: need to
diversify – diversify – diversify
From David Grey Variability - Annual rainfall in Kenya during 1956 – 1982
15.0
3.0
2.0
10.0
1.0
5.0
0.0
-1.0
0.0
-2.0
-5.0
Real GDP grow th (%) Variability in Rainfall (Meter) -3.0
-10.0
Years Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
-4.0
Mozambique flood
Thank you!
Credit: Gilberto Ricardo Cattle drinking water in the Shinguedzi River, competition for water resources with wildlife in the Limpopo National Park (Mozamique)