Transcript Avinash Tyagi-Water

World Meteorological Organization
Working together in weather, climate and water
WMO
Climate Change Adaptation
The Pivotal Role of Water
AVINASH TYAGI
Director, Water and Climate, WMO
Coordinator: UN-WATER Thematic Priority Area
Water and Climate Change
WATER DAY
2 June 2010, Bonn, Germany
WMO: Climate and Water
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www.wmo.int
Weather, Climate and Water
Severe Storms, Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and
Typhoons), Storm Surges, Floods, Droughts, Cold
Spells, Heat Waves, forest fires, locust swarms, etc…
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Effects on the hydrological cycle
(IPCC 2001)
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Precipitations
Evaporation
Soil moisture
Groundwater
Water Demand
Climate
Change
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Glaciers
Streamflow
Floods
Low flows
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Potential
Water Resources Impacts
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Water Supplies
Water Demands
Water Quality
Sea water level
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Flood Management
Drought management
Waste water treatment
Irrigation and Drainage
Hydropower
Operations
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Water, Energy
and Climate Change
Future water
management activities
must carefully consider
strategies to reduce
greenhouse gas
emissions
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Rainfall Variability and GDP
Bubble Size = GDP per capita
GDP and Rainfall Variability
(Blue = low interannual variability of rainfall)
1.8
Developing countries face more
challenging climate conditions
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1.4
Monthly 1.2
Rainfall
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Variability
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
50
100
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Wealthy nations share a small
Mean Annual Rainfall (cm)
window of favorable climate
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Brown and Lall,72006
Climate Change Adaptation:
the process
GCM
Climate
scenarios
Statistical downscaling / RCM
Temperature
Development
scenarios
E + ET
Socio-economic
Factors
Precipitation
Hydrological Modelling
Runoff
GW recharge
Water Demand
Adaptation
Storage
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Water Resources
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Water Resources Management
Entry points for Adaptations
• Planning new investments, or for capacity expansion
(reservoirs, irrigation systems, levees, water supply,
wastewater treatment)
• Operation & regulation of existing systems: accommodating
new uses or conditions (e.g. ecology, climate change,
population growth)
• Maintenance and major rehabilitation of existing systems
(e.g. dams, barrages, irrigation systems, canals, pumps, etc.)
•Modifications in processes and demands (water conservation,
pricing, regulation, legislation)
•Introduce new efficient technologies (desalting,
biotechnology, drip irrigation, wastewater reuse, recycling,
solar energy )
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Adaptations in Water Resources Management
Guiding Principles
• Mainstreaming climate change adaptation within broader
development context
• Strengthening water governance and integration of land
anndwat management
• Improving and sharing of knowledge and information on
adaptation measures and invest in monitoring
• Building long-term resilience through stronger institutions,
invest in infrastructure and well functioning ecosystems
• Invest in cost effective and adaptive water management as
well as technology transfer
• Leverage additional funds through national budgetary and
innovative funding mechanisms
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Basic Messages
• All drivers of hydrological cycle are affected by global
warming – climate change (CC)
• Water is the principal medium through which most
people will experience CC
• Many tools, coping options designed for Climate
Variability (CV), form the foundations for CC adaptation
• Socioeconomic factors, land uses, conflicts and
population dynamics will dominate future conditions
and modes of adaptation
• Huge upfront investments to avoid highly uncertain CC
risks have to be dealt with in a well-organized risk
management framework
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Services
Basic Messages
• Keystone for adaptation and adaptive management is a
greatly expanded and improved hydromet system for
monitoring, modeling and forecasting
• Climate information, GCMs and prediction services
need to be dramatically improved
• Improving governance is key to CC adaptation
• Therefore, CC adaptation must be cast within a
broader IWRM framework, and not viewed as an
independently pursued analytical paradigm
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WORKING TOGETHER
Towards
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Thank you!
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World Climate Conference-3
Better climate information for a better future
Geneva, Switzerland
31 August–4 September 2009
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GFCS Goal
Enable better management of the risks of climate variability
and change at all levels, through development and
incorporation of science-based climate information and
prediction into planning, policy and practice.”
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GFCS: Objectives
• Provide a cooperative framework in which all nations,
International organizations, scientists and sectors will
work together to meet the needs of users;
• Enable users to benefit from improved climate information
and prediction;
• Mobilize climate science globally to advance the skills of
seasonal-to-interannual and multi-decadal climate
predictions to generate and provide future climate
information on an operational basis;
• Foster mechanisms for sharing new advances in science
and information through a cooperative global
infrastructure.
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Components of
Global Framework for Climate Services
Government
Water
Agriculture
Agriculture
Water
Health
Health
Transport
Energy
Transport
Sectoral
Energy
Ecosystem
Users
Users
Ecosystem
Tourism
Private
sector
Tourism
Climate
User User
Interface
Interface
Programme
Programme
Capacity Building
Climate
Services
Information
System
Climate
Services
Information
Research &
Observations
Modeling
and Prediction
System
Climate Research
& Modeling and
Prediction
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Climate information flow
from producers to end-users
Scientific and technical
analysis and prediction
Global Analysis
and Prediction
Centres
Regional Analysis
and Prediction
Centres
National
Meteorological
Centres
Social and
economic actions
Global
Applications
Centres
Regional
Applications
Centres
Sector support
institutions
Water,
Agriculture,
Health…..
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International User
Organizations
Regional
User Organizations
National and
local users
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