Transcript Why collecting monthly oil data?

Monthly Oil Statistics (MOS)
Joint Organisations Data
Initiative (JODI Oil)
Energy Statistics Training
Paris, 4-8 March, 2013
Ágnes Nagy
Monthly Oil Statistics
© OECD/IEA 2013
Why collecting monthly oil data?
► Emergency Purposes
► Oil and Gas Market Analysis
► World-wide Data Dissemination
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The IEA monthly data system
1) MOS
2) JODI
3) Emergency data system
(during supply disruption)
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JODI
Questionnaire
M-1
Monthly Oil
Questionnaire
M-2
Revisions to historical data
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Differences between the MOS and JODI
questionnaire
Monthly Oil Questionnaire for
OECD countries requires more
information than JODI
Monthly Oil
Questionnaire
JODI
M-2
M-1
December
January
Current
month
February
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Annual Oil Statistics
International
Marine
Bunkers
Refinery
Fuel
Exports
Products
Transferred
Gross
Output
Inland
Deliveries
Primary
Products
Receipts
Recycled
Products
Imports
Interproduct
Transfers
Stock
Change
Transformation
Sector
Energy Sector
Distribution Loss
Gross Inland
Deliveries
Total Final
Consumption
Transport
Sector
Industry Sector
Residential
Commercial
Agriculture
Fishing
Etc
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Oil Statistics
International
Marine
Bunkers
Refinery
Fuel
Exports
Products
Transferred
Gross
Output
Inland
Deliveries
Primary
Products
Receipts
Recycled
Products
Imports
Interproduct
Transfers
Stock
Change
Transformation
Sector
Emergency stock coverage: 90Energy
-days
Sector
Distribution Loss
Gross Inland
Deliveries
Total Final
Consumption
Transport
Sector
Industry Sector
Residential
Commercial
Agriculture
Fishing
Etc
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►Worldwide oil data dissemination
Paper publications
Electronic Form
Monthly Oil Data Service
(MODS)
Monthly Oil
Survey
August 2004
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Oil Market Report
The benchmark oil market analysis of where the oil
market is today and where it is likely to be heading
in the future
•
•
Monitor the oil market
Analyse trends in demand, supply, refinery
activity, trade, and stocks
•
•
Inform the oil market with latest global data
Project short term developments in the oil market.
Increasing usage of JODI data in particular for non-OECD countries.
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What is JODI
 JODI was born in 2000 as
Joint Oil Data Initiative
 Oil data collection from almost all over the world
(around 100 participating countries)
Purpose
oil data transparency
It is a concrete outcome of the energy
producer-consumer dialogue
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JODI Background
• An unusual high volatility in oil prices was observed at the end of the 90’s
/ beginning 2000
• The lack of transparent and reliable oil statistics was identified as a
contributory factor
Evolution of oil prices ($/barrel)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
DUBAI
BRENT
Sep-00
Nov-00
Jul-00
Mar-00
May-00
Jan-00
Nov-99
Jul-99
Sep-99
Mar-99
May-99
Jan-99
Sep-98
Nov-98
Jul-98
May-98
Jan-98
Mar-98
Sep-97
Nov-97
Jul-97
May-97
Mar-97
Jan-97
Nov-96
Jul-96
Sep-96
Mar-96
May-96
Jan-96
Nov-95
Sep-95
Jul-95
May-95
Jan-95
Mar-95
0
WTI
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Emerging Economies & JODI
• JODI data are becoming crucial for the growing portion of
the market accounted for by the emerging economies
• All expected growth in demand is in Non-OECD
• Asia and Middle East: new refining and storage
capacities
• OPEC, Brazil and Caspian: supply growth
Regional Share of CDU Expansions
China
34%
m b/d
55
OECD vs. non OECD Oil Demand
OECD
Other
Asia
13%
Non-OECD
50
45
40
OECD
6%
Other
12%
Latin
America
11%
Middle
East
24%
35
30
25
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
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Growing JODI importance
• Within 6 months: 55 participating countries, 6 months later (May
2002): over 70 participating countries:
• 2002: six organisations obtained agreement from their member
countries → Joint Oil Data Initiative, became a permanent
reporting mechanism.
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How it works
Member
countries
One common JODI
questionnaire for
all 6 organisations
Member
countries
Member
countries
Member
countries
Member
countries
Member
countries
Around 100 participating
countries, representing
over 90% of global
supply and demand
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At first: Simple Form – Common Questionnaire
• 42 key oil data points
Petroleum Products
Crude Oil
LPG
Production
Refinery Output
Imports
Imports
Exports
Exports
Closing
Stocks
Kerosene
Gas/Diesel
Oil
Fuel Oil
Total Oil
Closing
Stocks
Change
Refinery Intake
Gasoline
Change
Demand
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 2006: JODI extended questionnaire for oil (Maxi-JODI), 2 year
trial period, 2008: fully implemented
NGL, Other and Total column added in order to
avoid miscounting in Crude Oil production
Addition of a few technical flows to be able
to make a full oil balance and consequently
better check internal consistency and
overall quality
Kerosene is also used for cooking and
lighting in Asia, Africa and Latin
America, so the need to differentiate
jet kerosene from other kerosene
Naphtha accounts for a large share of other
products, so the need to have a special
column to report it
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• Latest: Initiative to cover Natural Gas (JODI Gas)
and annual data on upstream and downstream capacity
and expansion plans.
• JODI rebranded from Joint Oil Data Initiative to
Joint Organisations Data Initiative
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Outcomes & Achievements
At country level:
• Trainings: Improving the quality, timeliness and coverage of statistics
• Establishment of data collection mechanism when there was none
• Moving from M-3 to M-2 and then to M-1
• Fewer confidentiality issues, increasing coverage, better quality data
 Strengthening the links between organisations, countries and companies,
contributing to the harmonization statistics
 JODI World Database
 Expanding platform of users
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TRAINING
• To help the participating countries to report better quality data
in the JODI questionnaire:
 definitions
 data quality assessment
 oil data issues
•To share their experience on data validation and collection
issues.
• To get clarifications about the definitions, data quality
assessment and oil data issues
• Apart from trainings, the IEF Secretariat hosts JODI Internship
programs at its headquarters in Riyadh, for officials from
developing countries with direct responsibility for oil statistics.
© OECD/IEA 2013
JODI trainings already held:
3rd JODI
Training
-----Oct 2007
-----IEFS
OPEC
IEA
UNSD
IMF
7th JODI
Training
-----Oct 2012
-----IEF
IEA
OPEC
Algiers
Ankara
5th JODI
Training
-----Nov 2009
-----IEFS
APEC
Eurostat
IEA
Rabat
Bangkok
Caracas
1st JODI
Training
-----Aug 2006
-----OLADE
IEFS
IEA
OPEC
UNSD
IMF
Bogota
6th JODI
Training
-----Jul 2010
-----IEF
OLADE
IEA
Johannesburg
2nd JODI
Training
-----Feb 2007
-----IEFS
Eurostat
IEA
OPEC
IMF
4th JODI
Training
-----Nov 2008
-----IEFS
APEC
IEA
© OECD/IEA 2013
What happens to JODI data once submitted :
JODI World Database
 Evaluation of JODI data:
• participation
• timeliness
• completeness
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JODI World Database
www.jodidata.org
• Accessible free of charge, regular monthly updates
•2012 – release of the extended JODI World Database
(data from extended JODI questionnaire)
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• Ongoing JODI performance evaluation:
data submission, timeliness and completeness
• Ratings: Good , Fair K , Poor 
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Importance of JODI Data
JODI on political agenda:
• 2009
• 2010
• 2011
Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, Washington DC, April 2011
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Expanding platform of users:
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JODI MANUAL
• Definitions of products and flows
• Data verification methods
• Examples of practices from countries
• Questionnaire and database overview
• The manual for small JODI format is available in Spanish, French,
Chinese, Russian and Arabic
• The manual for extended format of JODI has been released in
October 2012, currently only in English
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Thank you
[email protected]
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Exercise
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Exercise JODI.3
 Remember that the table is a BALANCE.
 You need to report that the NGL is used directly (on the primary product side:
NGL Direct Use) and then that it enters the market directly (on the secondary
products side):
 report it in the “RECEIPTS” line under “Other Products”
Receipts for Other Products include direct use
of crude oil and NGL
 Only now you show how it is reclassified into LPG.
 Use the Interproduct Transfer line.
 This way the LPG produced in the gas plant will be part of
demand.
© OECD/IEA 2013
Exercise JODI.3
100
100
100
100
-100
The Interproduct Transfer Total
should be equal to 0
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