Transcript Market overview

Junio 3 2010, Fort Lauderdale
El Mercado de Reaseguros Mundial
y su efecto en el Ambito
Latinoamericano
Aidan Pope
GC LAC
www.guycarp.com
Primer Trimestre de 2010…el “Cisne Negro?”
Guy Carpenter
1
Estimativa de los Siniestros Recientes…
26 Marzo 2010
14
12
Ultimate
17 mths
USDbn
10
8 mths
8
6
4
2
3 wks
0
Xynthia
Guy Carpenter
Chile EQ
Northridge PCS
Source: Company Announcements, AIR, EQECAT, ISO PCS, Guy Carpenter
2
Efecto Sobre el Mercado de Reaseguros???
 En Chile….
 En America Latina…
 A Nivel Mundial…
 La Tendencia hoy es de Enfocarse mas en la
Region Afectada….Por Que?
Guy Carpenter
3
1
19 9 90
910
19 9 91
911
19 9 92
912
19 9 93
913
19 9 94
914
19 9 95
915
19 9 96
916
19 9 97
917
19 9 98
918
19 9 99
929
20 0 00
020
20 0 01
021
20 0 02
022
20 0 03
023
20 0 04
024
20 0 05
025
20 0 06
026
20 0 07
027
20 0 08
028
20 0 09
029
20 0 10
10
Costo de Reaseguro en Propriedades:
Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-on-Line Index
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Guy Carpenter
Source: Guy Carpenter
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Precios de Seguros Comerciales en Estados Unidos…
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Note: Timelines superimposed by Guy Carpenter
5
La Vista Retroactiva:
Cambios 2007 a 2009 en los capitales de reaseguro
(GC Global Reinsurance Composite)(USD Billones)
GC Global Reinsurance Composite - Change in Reported Shareholders' Funds
115
110
105
95
90
85
80
Guy Carpenter
es
Sh
ar
09
YE
SH
F
th
er
O
as
ed
Di
vid
en
ds
Un
pa
id
re
al
ize
d
G
Fo
/(
re
L)
x
M
ov
em
en
Ca
ts
pi
ta
lI
nc
re
as
e
Re
pu
rc
h
In
co
m
e
08
Ne
t
YE
SH
F
th
er
O
as
ed
Di
vid
en
ds
Un
pa
id
re
al
ize
d
G
Fo
/(
re
L)
x
M
ov
em
en
Ca
ts
pi
ta
lI
nc
re
as
e
Re
pu
rc
h
In
co
m
e
Sh
ar
es
Ne
t
YE
07
75
SH
F
USDbn
100
6
Crecimiento en Capitales arriba de la tendencia
(Russell 3000 P&C Index)
Recovery
1200
“Hard market softening”
1100
Excess
capital
1000
900
800
Hard market
Crisis
700
600
Soft market
500
400
300
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Guy Carpenter, Bloomberg data
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‘Lo Desconocido’: Exposicion Neta de Aseguradoras a los PIIGS
(% de Capital Libre)
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Guy Carpenter
Source: Citigroup
Std Life
VIG
Sampo
Swiss Re
AEGON
SLH
RSA
Baloise
Hann Re
Helvetia
ZFS
Aviva
Munich
Allianz
ING
AXA
Mapfre
SNS
Generali
Delta Lyd
Fortis
0%
8
Indice VIX (Volatilidad de los mercados)
Capital markets
closed
90
80
70
60
50
Sept. 11
“Asian Contagion”
S&L crisis
Enron
LTCM
PIIGS
40
30
20
Back to
10
“normal”?
Guy Carpenter
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
Source: Bloomberg
9
Margen en los CDS para Diferentes Entidades….
Greece
California
Allianz
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Source : Guy Carpenter, Bloomberg data
10
Rendimientos en Inversiones “seguros” (Bonos de Gobierno):
12
10
8
6
4
2
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
US
UK
Germany
Japan
5-year yields to maturity, source: Bloomberg data
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Ratings S&P de Reaseguradores Globales
80
70
2007
2008
2009
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
AAA
AA
A
BBB
Lower
Note: Shows Guy Carpenter’s estimate of the lowering of Berkshire Hathaway’s rating from AAA to AA+ on 4 February 2010
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Source: Standard & Poor’s, Guy Carpenter
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Capital Reaseguro por Rating S & P:
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
YE
07
YE07
AAGuy Carpenter
Current/YE08
Current
A+
A
A-
Not Rated
Source: Guy Carpenter, Standard & Poor’s
13
Perspectivas para los Reaseguradores Internacionales
 Mejorar los Estados Financieros (Recesion)
 Reduccion de los Precios/Primas
 Mercado Generico de Rating “A”
 Solvencia II (Mayor Requerimiento de Capital)
 Menor Rendimiento Financiero
 Accionistas que piden mayor Retorno sobre Capital Invertido
 Presiones Inflacionarias
 Consolidacion….
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Los Cuatro Jinites del Apocolipsis
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Los Cuatro Jinetes
 Bajos Rendimientos de las Inversiones
 Precios a la Baja
 Inflacion
 Deterioro de las reservas
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Valuation dispersion could lead to additional M&A
1.2 x
1.1 x
Price to book
1.0 x
0.9 x
0.8 x
0.7 x
0.6 x
7%
8%
9%
10 %
11 %
12 %
13 %
14 %
15 %
16 %
17 %
2010E consensus RoE
Guy Carpenter
Source: Bloomberg
17
Temas para America Latina
….Los Terremotos pueden ocurrir en cualquier epoca…!

Jugadores Tradicionales versus Nuevos Entrantes

Diferenciacion (Reaseguradores y Corredores)

“Compliance” (Reaseguradores y Corredores)

Condiciones de Reaseguro mas restringidas

Nuevos Productos para un Mercado mas Sofisticado

Tamano de Siniestros Individuales

Internacionalizacion del Riesgo (Terrorismo o Cobertura Ambiental)

Capacidad para Seguro/Reaseguro de Caucion

Primeros seguros para la nueva clase adquisitiva
Guy Carpenter
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Que quieren los Reseguradores??
 Dominio de la informacion
 Mejor Administracion de Riesgos (ERM)
 Mayor Transparencia sobre calculo de Reservas
 Tasas apropriadas para el riesgo implicito (Efecto Inflacionario)
 Mayor Dispercion del Riesgo
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