Transcript สถานการณ์เศรษฐกิจไทย 2552

Effects of the Global Economic Crisis
on Thai Economy & Development Plan
Ampon Kittiampon
Secretary-General
Office of the National Economic and Social Development Plan
14 September 2009
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1
Outline
• Effects of Economic Crises in 1997 and
2008 on the Thai Economy
• Crisis Measures in the Two Crises
• Economic Structural Changes in Two
Decades
• Effects of 2008-Crisis on the Development
Issues Facing the 11th National Economic
and Social Development Plan (2012-2016)
14 September 2009
www.nesdb.go.th
2
Economic Crisis in ‘97 and ‘08
Important Events
• Tom Yum Kung Crisis
• Financial Institution Crisis and
rapid depreciation of Thai Baht
lead to collapse of investor
confidence and capital outflow
• Economic recovery partially
resulted from export growth, as
world economic still in good shape.
1997
World growth
Priv.consumption
Priv.Investment
Export (G&S)
Import (G&S)
Inflation
GDP
‘97
4.2
-1.4
-30.4
7.2
-11.3
5.6
-1.4
‘98
2.8
-11.5
-52.3
8.2
-21.6
8.1
-10.5
Rescue Package
• Receive IMF fund worth 4 billion
USD (14 AUG 97)
• Increase policy rate
• Financial Institutions: established
special fund to help raise require
reserve in both tier 1 and 2.
• Pass special bill to borrow extra
capital, total of 300 bil. Baht, for
financial institution rescue plan
14 September 2009
Important Events
• Hamburger Crisis
• From Food & Fuel crisis to collapse
of US financial system dramatically
effect world economic and Thailand
economy; export, tourism and
agricultural price.
• Thailand financial stability still
strong; strong financial institutions,
high level of national reserves and
manageable level of public debt.
2001
911
2002-2003
Iraq – USA war; SARs
2004-2005
Avian influenza (Bird Flu); Tsunami
2006-2007
Surge in oil price; Domestic political situation
‘97 Crisis
Indicators
2008
-10.4 (‘98)
GDP
2.6
-7.9 (‘96)
Current Account/GDP
0.0
27 (‘97)
National Reserve (Bil. USD)
111
52.4 (‘95)
Short-term debt (Bil. USD)
24.8
57 (‘00)
Public debt/GDP
36.9
45 (‘98)
NPL/Loan
3.19
-2.8 (‘99)
Fiscal account (cash)/GDP
-0.3
-7.9 (‘98)
Growth in private sector loan
9.3
58.8 (‘98)
CAPU
67.7
-9.8 (‘98)
Capital Flow (Bil. USD)
12.8
1,423 (‘99)
Unemployment (‘000)
522
4.4
Unemployment Rate
1.4
15.25 (‘97)
MLR
6.75-7.00
56.06 (12 JAN 98)
Exchange Rate (THB/USD)
33.38
355.81 (‘98)
SET Index
449.96
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2008
World growth
Priv.consumption
Priv.Investment
Export (G&S)
Import (G&S)
Inflation
GDP
Q4/08
-0.2
2.1
-1.3
-8.9
1.0
2.1
-4.2
2008
2.8
2.5
3.2
6.0
7.5
5.5
2.6
Rescue Package
• Reduce Policy rate
• Stimulus Package 1 (short-term
measures)
• Stimulus Package 2 ‘09-’11
(medium to long term plan)
• Pass 2 special Bills to borrow extra
capital, total 800 bil. Baht, for
Stimulus Package 2
3
4
Impacts of sub-prime and world economic crisis
on Thailand
Direct impacts on
financial institutions
- Total foreign exposure
(which includes loan in
foreign currency and
investment in foreign
debt and equities) as a
percentage share to
total assets of financial
institutions was only
approximately 7.5%
- Hence, direct impacts
on financial institutions
were limited.
14 September 2009
Related impacts on
International capital
movement
Impacts on Thai exports
and tourism
- Capital outflows from
portfolio investment
- Thai stock market’s
volatility and decline
in set index and
hence decline in
wealth
- Depreciation of baht
currency
- Contraction in world
demand
- Decline in trade
finance
- Growing concern over
protectionism
2008
Q2
Q3
Q4
Net Capital flow (b.US$)
-3.13
0.69
1.64
Set Index (avg.)
822.4
675.3
422.8
Daily avg. turnover
(million baht)
19,959
12,212
12,612
Currency (baht/US$)
32.2
33.8
34.8
www.nesdb.go.th
2008
2009
Q4
Q1
Q2
Export Value
(%YoY)
-9.4
-19.9
-26.1
No. Foreigner
Tourists (million)
3.1
3.5
3.4
-17.2
-15.8
-16.5
(%YoY)
4
Outline
• Effects of Economic Crises in 1997 and
2008 on the Thai Economy
• Crisis Measures in the Two Crises
• Economic Structural Changes in Two
Decades
• Effects of 2008-Crisis on the Development
Issues Facing the 11th National Economic
and Social Development Plan (2012-2016)
14 September 2009
www.nesdb.go.th
5
1997-Economic Stabilization
High priority on stabilizing the currency and financial system
to restore confidence
Great emphasis on
replenishing international
reserves to restore confidence
in currency
14 September 2009
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Restructuring
financial sector
6
1997-Rebuilding the reserves, stabilizing
currency, and lowering prices

IMF bailout package

Short period of strict monetary policies to
- rebuild international reserves,
- restore confidence in the exchange rate,
- control inflation.
14 September 2009
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7
1997-Financial Sector Restructuring
Segregating unviable
fin. Institutions
& addressing FIDF
problem
Addressing
the NPL problem
Strengthening supervision
of the
remaining institutions
Strengthening and
recapitalizing viable
financial institutions
14 September 2009
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8
2008-Policy mix/Policy coordination
to stabilize and stimulate the economy
Monetary Policy
Low Interest
Rate policy
From 2.5% to 1.25%
Fiscal Policy
Closely monitoring
of
financial liquidity
Support for
consumer spending
through…
Stimulus Package I
Macro prudential policy
to prevent
financial imbalances
and to ensure stability of
financial institutions
14 September 2009
Personal tax cuts &
Transfer payment
e.g. more generous
unemployment insurance
benefit, subsidy to senior
citizen, cash handout
for low income-earners,
free education, etc.
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Public investment
Projects
Stimulus Package II
3-Years Public Investment
Projects e.g. Infrastructure
projects, education
development-related
projects, water system
development projects,
health care upgradingrelated projects etc.
9
2008-Stimulus Package I
- Strong boost to domestic demand is key and imperative for the road to recovery
in 2009 while Thai exports will contract throughout 2009. The measures under SP
I are aimed to mitigate impacts of economic slowdown.
- In January 2009, Abhisit's government announced a Bt116.7 billion (US$3.35
billion) stimulus package aimed at boosting domestic demand shore up an
economy which has been battered by the global downturn and political turmoil
and last year's airport blockade. Excluding an amount paid back to treasury
balance, this is a one-year 2,700 mil. USD (or 93,000 million baht) program.
- The stimulus package was based on 4 principles as guidelines for
implementation, namely timely, transparent, temporary, and targeted.
- The plan comprised a mix of cash handouts for low earners, tax cuts, tax
deductible for mortgage payment up to 300,000 baht, expanded free education,
monthly payments to the elderly and volunteer health-care workers, and
subsidies for transport and utilities.
- If implemented by Q2/2009, potential boost of GDP is expected to be around 0.50.7 percent of GDP.
10
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10
Thai Economic Situation in H1/2009
The Thai economy contracted 6.0% in H1/2009
15
• The contraction was attributed to the sharp fall
in exports and tourism driven by a collapse in
global demand during the worst recession, and
the impacts of domestic political turmoil and
the spread of influenza A(H1N1) that
jeopardized consumer confidence and leading
to a decline in tourism and consumer spending.
• Production fall in many sectors such as
manufacturing (-11.4%), construction (-2.7%)
and Hotel & restaurants (-5.8%)
% YOY
10
5
0
47
48
49
50
51
52
-5
-10
Seasonally Adj. GDP(qq,
%annuallised)
-15
GDP (%YOY)
-20
-25
2008
2008
2009
ทัง้ ปี
Q4
Q1
Q2
H1
Agriculture
5.0
1.6
3.4
-2.7
0.5
Non-Agriculture
2.4
-4.9
-8.1
-5.0
-6.6
-12.9
• Manufacturing
3.9
-6.7
-14.4
-8.4
-11.4
-16.1
-16.9
• Construction
-4.7
-12.8
-7.9
2.5
-2.7
-9.1
9.6
0.5
• Wholesale and retail trade
1.9
-3.2
-4.0
-3.3
-3.6
-8.9
-17.9
-22.8
-20.4
• Hotel & restaurants
1.6
-7.7
-6.0
-5.6
-5.8
7.5
1.0
-31.6
-25.3
-28.4
• Financial Intermediation
8.1
5.5
4.0
5.6
4.8
2.6
-4.2
-7.1
-4.9
-6.0
2.6
-4.2
-7.1
-4.9
-6.0
2008
2008
2009
ทัง้ ปี
Q4
Q1
Q2
H1
Private consumption
2.5
2.1
-2.5
-2.3
-2.4
Government consumption
0.5
11.0
3.6
5.9
4.8
Total Investment
1.1
-3.3
-15.8
-10.1
- Private
3.2
-1.3
-17.7
- Public
-4.8
-10.2
Export (G&S)
6.0
Import (G&S)
%YOY
%YOY
GDP
14 September 2009
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GDP
11
11
Economic Projection of 2009
(August 24, 2009)
Actual data
Projection_2009f
2006
2007
2008
25 May
09
24 Aug.
09
GDP (at current prices: Bil.Bht)
7,841.3
8,493.3
9,105.0
8,831.8
8,786.3
GDP growth (at 1988 prices, %)
5.2
4.9
2.6
(-3.5) –
(-2.5)
(-3.5)(-3.0)
Total Investment (at 1988 prices, %)
3.9
1.3
1.1
-6.2
-10.0
- Private
4.1
0.6
3.2
-9.7
-14.8
- Public
3.3
3.4
-4.8
5.0
5.0
2.9
2.7
2.2
2.0
0.7
- Private
3.0
1.6
2.5
0.4
-0.8
- Public
2.4
9.2
0.5
11.3
9.4
Export value of goods (%)
17.0
17.3
16.8
-15.0
-16.3
Import value of goods ( %)
7.9
9.1
26.4
-19.6
-24.2
Trade balance (Bill. USD)
1.0
11.6
0.2
8.3
14.0
Current account (Bill. USD)
2.3
14.0
-0.2
9.3
14.5
Current account to GDP (%)
1.0
6.1
-0.1
3.7
5.6
Inflation (%)
4.7
2.3
5.5
(-0.5) –
(0.5)
(-1.0)(-0.5)
Total Consumption (at 1988 prices, %)
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12
Economic Management in 2009
 Preparation of disease control plan to prevent the outbreak of 2009 new
strain influenza
 Acceleration of budget disbursement in the remaining months of FY 2009,
and preparation of budget execution details so that disbursement of FY 2010
budget could be timely started in October.
 Disbursement of public funds and implementation of public projects
under the second stimulus package (SP2) must be promptly executed in
the first quarter of FY2010 (October – December 2009).
 Facilitation of credit extension by special financial institutions to
entrepreneurs and SMEs who encounter liquidity shortage.
 Implementation of agricultural prices guarantee scheme during period of
falling prices.
 Managing exchange prudently to prevent either sharp depreciation
during the period of rising oil prices, or rapid appreciation that could harm
exporters and tourism industry. However, exchange rate management should
not fuel asset prices to rise faster than the pace of economic recovery.
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13
2008-Stimulus Package II
Rationales
• On January 13, 2009, the Cabinet approved the First Stimulus Package
(SP I) worth 116,700 Mil-Baht (3,334 Mil-US$) in order to cushion the
immediate impact from global financial crisis during Q2-Q3/ 2009
• IMF forecasted that the world economy would contracted by 0.5-1.0%
and recovery would be prolonged. Consequently, Thai economy, specially
unemployment, would be severely affected
• Thus, Thai government have initiated the Second Stimulus Package (SP II)
(2010-2012) in order to create jobs and generate incomes through public
projects investment, aiming to enhance Thailand’s competitiveness and to
induce private investments in the future
1.
2.
Objectives
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
14 September 2009
To enhance food and energy security, including increase productivity of
agricultural and industrial sectors
To upgrade public infrastructures for both economic and social services
to improve economic competitiveness and quality of life
To improve income-generating capacity of tourism sector
To create new income-generating sectors in the Creative Economy.
To upgrade quality of education and holistically modernize learning
system
To raise quality of public health care system for all Thais
To create jobs and increase incomes for people at community levels in
order to improve their quality of life
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14
2008-Stimulus Package II
Public
Water System/
Infrastructure
Agricultures
837,642
238,515
1.43 Tri-Baht
Mil-Baht
Mil-Baht
Program
SubProgram
Water
Management
Technology &
Standard
Improvement
for Agricultural
Sector
Tourism
8,506
Mil-Baht
Transport &
Logistics
Image Revival
Alternative
Energy
Tourism
Marketing
Creative
Economy
17,585 Mil-Baht
Cultural
Heritage
Conservation
and
Restoration
Creative
Tourism
Products
Arts and
Cultural Town
Tourism
Tourism
Site
Recovery
Thai Handcraft
Promotion
Education
Standard
Improvement
Telecommunication
Public Health
Social Security
Creative
Product
Promotion
Education
53,969
Mil-Baht
Learning
Community
Building
Quality and
Standard
Improvement
on Education
and Learning
System
Intellectual
Infrastructures
Improvement
plan and Center
of Education in
sub-region and
region
Public Health Community
91,708
10,441
Mil-Baht
Mil-Baht
Production and
Strengthening
Capacity of
Medical and
Health Care
Staff
Development
Programs for 5
Provinces in
Southern
Thailand
Research and
development
of medical
technology
Investment
Programs for
Job Creation
and Income
Generation in
Communities
Thai Software
Industry
Promotion
Design Industry
and R&D
Promotion
Science &
Technology
Quality
Improvement
on Teachers
and Education
Reform
Natural Resources
14 September 2009
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15
Outline
• Effects of Economic Crises in 1997 and
2008 on the Thai Economy
• Crisis Measures in the Two Crises
• Economic Structural Changes in Two
Decades
• Effects of 2008-Crisis on the Development
Issues Facing the 11th National Economic
and Social Development Plan (2012-2016)
14 September 2009
www.nesdb.go.th
16
Economic structure: sensitive to external shock
• Production : more depend on manufacturing sector
than others sector
• Employment : remains concentrate in agriculture
sector though it’s gradually declined
• Demand side : more depend on external trade
Economic structural changes
Supply side (% of GDP)
Economic structural changes
Demand side (% of GDP)
80
45
40
35
1980
26.2
25
20.2
50
51.8
40
17.9
12.6
72
2008
23.1
15
22.9
29.7
29.5
30
21.4
10
5
66.5
60
2008
40.1
30
20
70
1980
56.6
20
13.8
8.9
11.7
10
22
0
Agriculture
14 September 2009
Manufacturing Wholesale and
retail trade
services
14.3
Others
8.9
0
Priv.Consumption
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Pub.consumption
Total Investment
Export (G&S)
Import (G&S)
17
Economic structure: sensitive to external shock
• Energy : depend on import energy
Energy Consumption and GDP
(at current prices)
Import energy to GDP
(at current prices)
0
13%
12%
0
10%
0
0
7%
7%
0
0
4%
0
Energy Consumption
GDP
14 September 2009
0
1997
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2002
2006
2007
2008
2009(Q1)
18
Outline
• Effects of Economic Crises in 1997 and
2008 on the Thai Economy
• Crisis Measures in the Two Crises
• Economic Structural Changes in Two
Decades
• Effects of 2008-Crisis on the Development
Issues Facing the 11th National Economic
and Social Development Plan (2012-2016)
14 September 2009
www.nesdb.go.th
19
New Global Trends in the next 20 years
10th National Plan
1. Regional economic cooperation
2. Asia economic power increase
3. New Financial Architechture
4. Aging Society
5. New technology-Innovation and Human
life style
6. Fuel Crisis
7. Global Warming
1. Human Development
2. Strengthening grass
root community
3. Economic restructuring
4. Bio-diversity
5. Good governance
1. World economic growth in the medium term expected to be slow.
2. Financial market shift toward Multiple financial nodes and tighter financial rules and
regulations.
3. Shortage of water supply and agriculture area.
4. Unemployment and aging population.
5. Global warming
New born Risks after
6. Fast pace of technology development
7. Sustainable capitalism and CSR
world economic crisis
8. Regional trade and cooperation increase
9. Asian increase role in global politic
World Economic Crisis
2007
2009
14 September 2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
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2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
20
Multi Polar World
Contribution to Global GDP Growth
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
IMF
14 September 2009
Developing Countries
USA
China
Developed countries
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• Shift toward Multi-polar
world
• BRICs gain greater power
• China become world 2nd
beigest economy
• Recovery of each country
will be differs from 1.
affect from economic crisis
and 2. Stimulus package
by each government.
21
New Financial Architecture
Multiple Financial Nodes
Tighter financial rules, regulation and administer
US Dollar losing power
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22
Food and Fuel Security
Short-term
Current economic crisis soften down the
effect
Fuel
Foodz
Primary
Products
Economic recovery will boost
the effect
Long-term
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23
Shift in Social Sector
Increase in Unemployment and
Poverty
Might not achieve MDGs 2015
Aging Society
Increasing risk of new born epidemic
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24
Shift in Environmental Sector
Global Warming!!
Change in environmental/
physical/ biodiversity
z
Effect towards agriculture
sector and food production
Conflict over national resources
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25
Technology and Innovation
14 September 2009
Information Technology
Biotechnology
Nanotechnology
Cognitive Technology
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26
Global Trade and Cooperation
Tighter rules
Harder for
and
Trade barrier
international
Increase
regulations
organization Regionalism regional
on trade
and institution
cooperation
ต่ อ
in Asia
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27
New Economic and Business Model
State Capitalism
14 September 2009
Sustainable Capitalism
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New Global Politic Landscape
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Short-term: Keep growth steady while minimize risk from volatile global economy
Long-term: Adapt to changes
Economic and Financial
• Expand market and increase regional cooperation
• Restructuring production sector
Food, Fuel and Environment
• Create advantage to become Agriculture Products Hub
• Create value creation in agriculture and food products
• Innovation and development in alternative energy
Global warming and Good governance
• Green Job / Green Growth / Green Economy
Aging Society
Regional cooperation
14 September 2009
• Expand home-care service for elder, medical sector,
health-care service and Long stay tourisms
• Cooperation in production, trade and investment
• Social and Environment sectors
• Financial cooperation to reduce external risks
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30
Thank you
14 September 2009
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going
green
31