Transcript Community Education Council, District 10 Presentation

UNMET NEED FOR SEATS IN NEW 2015-2019
PROPOSED CAPITAL PLAN
INCLUDING CITYWIDE CLASS SIZE AND OVERCROWDING DATA
Leonie Haimson, Class Size Matters
Sept. 2014
School Utilization Rates at critical levels
• Citywide, schools have become more overcrowded over last six years. More than
480,000 students citywide are in extremely overcrowded buildings.
• Elementary schools avg. building utilization “target” rates at 97.4%; median at
102%. High schools are not far behind at 95.2%.
• High Elem school rates in all boroughs, esp. D10 and D11 in the Bronx 108% and
105.6%, respectively.
• In Queens, D24 (120.6%), D25 (109.7%), D26 (110%), D27 (106.1%), and D30
(107.3%) all extremely overcrowded.
• At the MS level, D20 in Brooklyn, D24, and D25 in Queens have building
utilization rates over 95%.
• Queens high school buildings have avg. utilization rate of 110.7% and Staten
Island high school buildings 103.2%.
Data source: Blue Book target utilization rates 2012-2013
Average Utilization Rates City-Wide 2012-2013
100%
97.4%
95.2%
95%
90%
*Calculated
by dividing
building
enrollment by
the target
capacity
85%
80.9%
80%
75%
70%
Elementary Schools
Middle Schools
Source: 2012-2013 DOE Blue Book
High Schools
Proposed capital plan vs. needs for seats
• Proposed capital plan has (at most) 38,754 seats – and this if
Cuomo’s “Smart School” bond act is approved. (806 more seats
funded only for design)
• Plan admits real need of 49,245 (though doesn’t explain how this
figure was derived).
• DOE’s consultants project enrollment increases of 60,000-70,000
students by 2021
• At least 30,000 seats needed to alleviate current overcrowding for just
those districts that average above 100%.
• Conclusion: real need for seats at least 100,000.
Proposed capital plan vs. needs for seats part II
• These figures do not capture overcrowding at neighborhood level,
including schools with K waiting lists, or need to expand pre-K, reduce
class size, restore cluster rooms, or provide space for charters as
required in new state law.
• Does not capture need to replace trailers with capacity of more than
10,890 seats.
• Though DOE counts only 7,158 students attending class in TCUs,
actual number is far higher & likely over 10,000.
• Also, DOE utilization figures underestimate actual overcrowding
according to most experts and Chancellor, who has appointed a “Blue
Book” taskforce to improve them.
• Revised utilization formula should be aligned to smaller classes,
dedicated rooms for art, music, special education services, and more.
Class sizes have increased for six years
in a row
• Despite provisions in 2007 state law requiring NYC reduce class sizes, classes in K-3 in
2013-2014 largest since 1998; in grades 4-8 largest since 2002.
• K-3 average class size was 24.9 (Gen Ed, inclusion & gifted classes) compared to 20.9 in
2007, increase of 19%.
• In grades 4-8, the average class size was 26.8, compared to 25.1 in 2007 –increase of 6.8%.
• HS “core” academic classes, class size average 26.7, up slightly since 2007. (Yet DOE’s
measure of HS class sizes is inaccurate and their methodology changes, so estimates
cannot be relied upon.)
• Averages do NOT tell the whole story – as more than 330,000 students were in classes of 30
or more in 2013-2014.
• There were 40,268 kids in K-3 in classes of 30 or more in 2013-2014 – an increase of nearly
14% compared to the year before.
• The number of teachers decreased by over 5000 between 2007-2010, according to the
Mayor’s Management Report, despite rising enrollment.
K-3 Class sizes are the largest since 1998
General ed, CTT and gifted: data from IBO 1998-2005; DOE 2006-2013
24.9
24.9
24.5
23.9
23.2
22.9
22.4
22.1
22.1
21.7 21.6
21.4
21.3 21.1
21.0 20.9
1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
4th – 8th grade Class sizes largest since 2002
Gened, CTT and gifted: data from IBO 1998-2005; DOE 2006-2013
28.1
27.5
27.2
27.4
27.0
26.8
26.6 26.7
26.7
26.4
26.3
25.9
25.8
25.6
25.3
25.1
1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010-11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Total no. of teachers dropped by 5,000
since 2007-8
data source: Mayor's Management Report
79,109
79,021
76,795
74,958
73,844
72,787
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY 13
Class sizes citywide have increased in grades K-3
by 19.1% since 2007 and are now far above Contracts for Excellence goals
26
25
24.9
24.5
students per section
24
23.9
C4E goals
23
22.9
22.1
22
Citywide actual
21.4
21
21.0
21
20.9
20.7
20.5
20.3
20
20.1
19.9
19.9
19.9
19
18
Baseline
2007-8
2008-9
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan
Class sizes citywide in grades 4-8 have increased by 6.8% since 2007 and
are now far above Contracts for Excellence goals
28
27
26.8
26.6
26.3
26
25.6
25
Students per section
26.7
25.8
25.1
24.8
C4E target
25.3
24.6
24
23.8
23.3
23
22.9
22.9
22.9
Citywide actual
22
21
20
19
18
Baseline
2007-8
2008-9
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan
Class sizes city-wide have increased in core HS classes as
well, by 2.3% since 2007, though the DOE data is unreliable*
27
26.7
26.6
26.5
26.5
26.4
26.3
26.2
26
26.1
26
25.7
C4E Target
25.5
Citywide Actual
25.2
25
24.8
24.5
24.5
24.5
24.5
24
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
*DOE’s class size data is unreliable &
their methodology for calculating HS averages have changed year to year
Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan
At least 30,000 seats currently needed
just in districts averaging over 100%
# of Seats Needed in all districts with
building utilization rates higher than
100% at HS level
# of Seats Needed in all districts
with ES building utilization rates
higher than 100%
8,000
7,295
6,000
7,000
5,318
5,000
6,000
3,912
4,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,279
2,000
1,929
1,822
1,637
1,237
1,451 1,476
3,000
2,000
1,231
1,000
1,000
518
189
0
0
D10
D11
D15
D20
D22
D24
D25
D26
D27
D30
D31
QUEENS HS
*These figures are the difference between capacity & enrollment in
the organizational target # in 2012-2013 Blue Book
Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”
STATEN ISLAND HS
Manhattan Average Building Utilization
Rates by District 2012-2013
97.9%
100%
95.3%
92.3%
90%
87.1%
86.9%
89.4%
88.8%
90.7%
78.5%
80%
70%
94.3%
75.8%
76.3%
68.4%
60%
ES
MS
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”
D6
High Schools
Bronx Average Building Utilization Rates
by District 2012-2013
108%
110%
105.6%
99.4%
90%
88.9%
86.6%
82.7%
93.9%
91%
82.2%
89.4%
80.5%
76.1%
70.9%
70%
ES
MS
50%
30%
10%
D7
D8
D9
D10
D11
-10%
Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”
D12
High Schools
Brooklyn Average Building Utilization Rates by
District 2012-2013
118.9%
120%
110.8%
101%
100%
96.4% 95.5%
88.6%
85.6%
80%
81.4%
79.6%
76.0%
74.1%
74.1%
68.7%
72.0%
79.5%
80.0%
70%
65.3%
66.5%
65.1%
62.3%
59.1%
60%
79%
74.3%
60.0%
ES
MS
40%
20%
0%
D13
D14
D15
D16
D17
D18
D19
D20
D21
D22
Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”
D23
D32
High
Schools
Queens Average Building Utilization
Rates 2012-2013 by District
120.6%
120%
109.7%
110%
107.3%
106.1%
100%
95.7%
98.6%
98%
89.5%
87.5%
110.7%
95.6%
91%
84.5%
80%
75.3%
ES
MS
60%
40%
20%
0%
D24
D25
D26
D27
D28
D29
Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”
D30
High Schools
Staten Island Average Building Utilization
Rates 2012-2013
110%
108%
103.2%
90%
84.5%
70%
50%
30%
10%
Elementary Schools
Middle Schools
-10%
Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”
High Schools
Enrollment projections suggest many MORE districts
will require additional seats in future
• The 2015-2019 capital plan has 31,754 seats plus 2,100 full-day pre-K seats
and 4,900 seats for class size reduction, if bond issue passes.
• When compared to the enrollment projections by Statistical Forecasting and
Grier Partnership through 2021, many districts will require more seats than
the Capital Plan has allotted.
• Grier Partnership projects enrollment growth at 70,341, Statistical Forecasting
at 60,230, and estimates from Housing Starts are 51,727.
• The following slides have citywide & district-by-district for enrollment growth
from SF, GP & housing start estimates, compared to new seats in the capital
plan.
City-wide Enrollment Projections K-8 vs.
New Seats in Capital Plan
*Statistical Forecasting does not include
D75 students; K-8 Seats in Capital Plan
are categorized as Small PS and PS/IS
and includes 4,900 seats for class size
reduction if Bond issue passes.
60,000
51,954
Source for Housing Starts: NYSCA
Projected New Housing Starts 2012-2021,
http://www.nycsca.org/Community/Capital
PlanManagementReportsData/Housing/20
12-21HousingWebChart.pdf; Projected
public school ratio,
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Education/Pr
ojected-Public-School-Ratio/n7ta-pz8k
50,000
40,589
38,244
40,000
36,654
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Statistical Forecasting
2011-2021
Grier Partnership 2011- Housing Starts, Estimated Capital Plan, New Seats
2021
Growth 2012-2021
2015-2019
City-wide Enrollment Projections HS vs. New Seats in
Capital Plan
20,000
*Statistical Forecasting does not include D75
students; HS Seats in Capital Plan are
categorized as IS/HS and does not include
seats for class size reduction
19,461
18,387
Source for Housing Starts: NYSCA Projected
New Housing Starts 2012-2021,
http://www.nycsca.org/Community/CapitalPlan
ManagementReportsData/Housing/201221HousingWebChart.pdf; Projected public
school ratio,
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Education/Projec
ted-Public-School-Ratio/n7ta-pz8k
18,000
16,000
14,000
13,483
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
3,102
2,000
0
Statistical Forecasting Grier Partnership 2011Housing Starts,
Capital Plan, New Seats
2011-2021
2021
Estimated Growth 20122015-2019
2021
Unmet need in Queens HS especially
acute
• DOE’s utilization figures indicate a shortage of 7295 seats in Queens
HS currently
• These figures underestimate actual level of overcrowding, according
to most principals.
• DOE consultants project an increase in Queens high school
enrollment of 12,567- 12,980 by 2021.
• Yet only 2,802 Queens HS seats proposed in five-year
plan, a shortage of more than 17,000 seats.
Kindergarten Waitlists in many neighborhoods
# of Kids on waitlists for Kindergarten 2011-2013 by Borough
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
883
751
942
946
720
679
622
569
2011
462
2012
2013
211
Man
163
114
112
Bronx
47
Brooklyn
Queens
% of Schools w/ Waitlists by District* 2013
50%
43%
45%
37%
40% 38%
33%
35%
31% 31%
31%
30%
23%
25%
18%
20%
14% 15% 13%
15%
8%
8%
8%
7%
7% 6%
10%
5% 5%
5%
4%
4%
5%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10111213141516171819202122242526272829303132
Districts 1, 7, 23 not included as they are "choice districts")
110
SI
Zoned Kindergarten wait
lists, citywide 2009-13
3000
2588
2500
2382
2361
2000
1885
1500
1000
500
499
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 Kindergarten Wait Lists (Citywide)
• According to DOE, the wait list for zoned Kindergarten spots in 2014
is smaller citywide than in 2013.
• There were 1,242 zoned students on wait lists as of April 21, 2014.
• 19 of the 32 school districts currently have at least one school with a
waiting list.
• There are 63 schools that have zoned wait lists. 20 are in Brooklyn,
17 in Queens, 11 in Manhattan, 11 in The Bronx, and 4 in Staten
Island.
• The number of zoned students on these wait lists and the
methodology for determining waitlists has yet to be revealed – unclear
if same as last year.
New charter provisions passed in state budget
• Any charter co-located in a NYC school building cannot be evicted and has veto
powers before they leave the building – even if they are expanding and squeezing out
NYC public school students.
• This includes any charter co-location agreed to before 2014 – including the three
Success charter schools approved right before Bloomberg left office.
• Any new or charter school in NYC adding grade levels must be “provided access to
facilities” w/in five months of asking for it.
• If they don’t like the space offered by the city, they can appeal to the Commissioner
King, who is a former charter school director and has never ruled against a charter
school.
• NO FISCAL IMPACT statement or analysis accompanying this bill.
• In addition, the state will provide all charter schools with per-pupil funding increases,
amounting to $500 over the next 3 years and provide them funding for pre-K.
Charter space provisions ONLY apply to
NYC
• Upstate legislators fought off making charters eligible for state facilities funds
– which would have been better for NYC.
• Yet legislators did not block these onerous provisions for NYC , where we
have the most expensive real estate & the most overcrowded schools in the
state.
• If the DOE doesn’t offer charter schools free space, the city must pay for a
school’s rent in private space or give them an extra 20 percent over their
operating aid every year going forward.
• After the city spends $40 million per year on charter rent, the state will begin
chipping in 60% of additional cost.
How many charters will there be entitled
to free space?
• We have 183 charters in NYC, 119 in co-located space.
• 22 new charters are approved to open next year or the year after, all entitled to free
space.
• 52 additional charter schools left to approve until we reach the cap raised in 2010 –
with legislative approval – all entitled to free space.
• Any new or existing co-located charter can also be authorized to expand grade levels
through HS and will be entitled to free space.
• DOE will be paying $5.4 M in annual rent for four years for 3 Success Academy
schools that only have 484 students next year – at a cost of $11,000 per student.
• This doesn’t count the unknown renovation costs in these 3 schools, also paid for by
the city.
Blue book data & Utilization formula inaccurate &
underestimates actual level of overcrowding
• Class sizes in grades 4-12 larger than current averages & far above goals in
city’s C4E plan & will likely force class sizes upwards
• Doesn’t require full complement of cluster rooms or special needs students to
have dedicated spaces for their mandated services
• Doesn’t properly account for students now housed in trailers in elementary
and middle schools.
• Doesn’t account for co-locations which subtract about 10% of total space and
eat up classrooms with replicated administrative & cluster rooms. Small
schools use space less efficiently
• Instructional footprint shrank full size classroom only 500 sq. feet min., risking
building code/safety violations at many schools as 20-35 sq feet per student
required.
• Special ed classrooms defined as only 240-499 sq ft, thought State Ed
guidelines call for 75 sq ft per child with special needs; classrooms this small
would allow only 3- 7 students.
Comparison of class sizes in Blue book compared to
current averages & Contract for excellence goals
Grade levels
UFT Contract
class size limits
Target class
sizes in "blue
book"
Current average
class sizes
C4E class Size
goals
How many students
allowed in min. 500 sq ft
classroom according to
NYC building code
Kindergarten
25
20
23
19.9
14
1st-3rd
4th-5th
32
32
20
28
25.5
26
19.9
22.9
25
25
28
27.4
22.9
25
30
26.7*
24.5
25
30 (Title I)
6th-8th
33 (non-Title I)
HS (core
classes)
34
*DOE reported HS class sizes unreliable
Some Recommendations
• 38,000 seats in capital plan is too low, esp. given existing overcrowding,
projected enrollment, pre-K expansion, class size reduction, new
mandates to provide charter schools with space
• Also very low as compared to Mayor’s plan to create or preserve 200,000
affordable housing units.
• Council should expand the seats in five year capital plan to at least
50,000.
• Commission an independent analysis by City Comptroller, IBO or other
agency.
• Adopt reforms to planning process so that schools are built along with
housing in future through mandatory inclusionary zoning, impact fees etc.
• Over half of all states and 60% of large cities have impact fees, requiring
developers to pay for costs of infrastructure improvements, including
schools.