Transcript 9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq

9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq
Prof. Theo Farrell
Dept of War Studies
King’s College London
Content
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9/11 and Al Qaeda
2001-2002 Afghanistan War
The Bush Doctrine
2003 Iraq War
The Logic of Prevention
The bad guys
Al Qaeda’s record
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bombing of World Trade Center (1993)
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attempt to destroy 11 Jumbo’s (1995)
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bombing of US facilities in Riyadh (1995) &
Dhahran (1996), killing 26 and injuring 540
embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania,
killing 224 (1998)
attack on USS Cole (2000)
Impact of 9/11
Blair on 9/11 (March 2004)
September 11 was for me a
revelation
If the 20th century scripted our
conventional way of thinking, the 21st
century is unconventional in almost
every respect. This is true also of our
security.
Terrorism and public fear
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involuntary exposure
- cars kill more than terrorists
- terrorism is beyond our control
unfamiliarity
- Malaria (kills 1m each year) v
Ebola (killed 891 since 1976)
– Sept01 anthrax attack on US
closes down DC but only kills 5
The New Terrorists
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Smarter
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More agile
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More lethal
Al Qaeda’s strategy
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Bleeding wars
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Building safe havens and
franchises (AQI, AQIM, Hamas)
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Raids on the West
Bruce Riedel, The Search for Al Qaeda
GWOT: the opening campaign
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“War on Terrorism”: Bush address
to nation on 11 Sept.
Rumsfeld orders JCS to draw up
military options on 12 Sept.
CENTCOM plan approved 2 Oct and
Op Enduring Freedom begins 7 Oct
CENTCOM uses the CIA plan
JCS plans (13-15 Sept)
(a) cruise missile attacks
(b) longer bombing campaign
(c) large-scale invasion
CIA plan: US airpower, SOF teams +
local Afghan allies
Op Enduring Freedom
1.
Coalition air offensive (7-19 Oct)
2.
US/UK supported NA offensive in
North (late Oct–Nov 2001)
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US/UK-led land offensive in South
(Dec 2001–July 2002)
Bush Doctrine
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Terrorists + WMD = increase the
risks of inaction
“To forestall or prevent such hostile
acts by our adversaries, the United
States will, if necessary, act
preemptively in exercising our
inherent right of self-defense.”
Nat Security Strategy, 20 Sept 2002
Neocon agenda
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Moral certitude
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Military primacy
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Middle East democracy
Iraq: the road to war
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Post 9/11: worse-case analysis gained a
new credibility
Bush orders war plans (21 Nov 2001)
Framing the threat: “Axis of Evil” (2002
State of the Union)
Selling the threat: Iraq, Al Qaeda and
WMD
Iraq: countdown to war
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Aug 2002: Bush authorises war
plans
10 Oct 2002: Congress authorises
war, 296-133 & 77-23
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8 Nov 2002: UNSC passes res. 1441
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20 March 2003: OIF begins
Twenty days later…
Rumsfeld Doctrine
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CONOPS: “Shock and awe” replaces
“overwhelming force”
“Army lite” invasion force: 170,000
(v. 540,000 in 1991 GW)
Victory for military transformation
Losing the peace
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Lack of phase IV planning
ORHA & CPA: poorly resourced and
staffed
US forces: too few and unprepared
for COIN
American mistakes
American mistakes
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De-baathification
Disbanding the Iraqi Army
Failure to maintain order
Pushing too fast on political and
economic reform
The logic of prevention
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Preventive war thinking in early
Cold War America
Clinton administration and North
Korea
Israeli raids on nuclear facilities in
Iraq (1981) and Syria (Sept 2007)