Transcript Slide 1
The Outlook for Energy A View to 2030 & Impact Of Global Geopolitics
Florida International University 29 th Annual Journalist & Editors Workshop on Latin America and the Caribbean “Latin America’s Energy Future” Presented by: Dr. Eduardo G. Del Valle EGDV CONSULTANTS, INC Miami, May 5, 2011
Energy sources evolve; new technologies have huge influence on both supply and demand
Global Demand By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs 700
Standard of living improved dramatically over past century driven by technology and abundant energy. By 2030 demand projected at 6 times 1950 level with increasing diverse energy mix; GDP 20 times 1950 level
600 500 1901- First gasoline powered automobile mass produced 400 1884- First steam turbine 1980 – First U.S. windfarm consisting of 20 turbines built in New Hampshire 1954 – Modern silicon solar cell invented
Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas
300
Oil
1859- First oil well drilled in Titusville, PA 200 100
Coal Biomass
0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Source: Smil,
Energy Transitions;
ExxonMobil
Energy Outlook Basis
100 countries 15 demand sectors 20 fuel types technology & policy
3
Geopolitical Forces/Conflicts that Impact Outlook
• Resource nationalism is making access to new reserves more difficult and/or more costly • Examples: Russia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, some African countries • Revolution in communications is increasing societal expectations in less developed countries and social pressures for more freedom and a better life are building • 400 million Chinese with capacity to move from bicycle to vehicles. From cooking with wood to cooking with electricity • • India will follow Cumulative environmental impact?
• Chinese oil companies aggressiveness in pursuit of new energy reserves is pre-empting Western Oil companies from economically accessing new supplies. • Prrivate sector companies cannot compete with promises of additional Chinese government assistance for economic and social development • Up to now Western government have abastained from reacting, but will this posture last?
Geopolitical Forces/Conflicts that Impact Outlook
• The complex corporate social difficulties that arise working in unstable political/social environments that are prone to corruption and human rights violations • What is the appropriate responsibility of oil companies to ensure that human rights are respected and the monies generated from their investment are properly channeled for economic development • Should Western democracies develop legal protocols to assist oil companies in these complex balancing acts • Combination of producing countries budgetary pressures coupled with climate change uncertainties are making longer term planning and capital investment decisions increasingly complex and risky • Non-Opec production has been unable to keep up with growth in demand – not a good sign • Legal and regulatory framework: Climate change lesgislation, subsidies, environmental restrictions, government mandates and taxation • Middle East Instability – where will it lead?
• There is no known technology today that is expected to have any major impact in altering the projected energy mix by 2030
Population + Improved Standard of living Drives Energy Demand Growth
Population
Billion 18
Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 0.9%
15
GDP
Trillion 2005$ 100
Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 2.8%
80
Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs 1200
Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 1.2%
1000 12 800 60 9 600 40 6 400 20 3 200 0 1980 2005 2030 0 1980 6 2005 2030 0 1980 2005 2030
Economic Growth Fastest in Non-OECD
GDP
Trillion 2005$ 100
China and India grow at 6%/yr
80
Other Non OECD Africa Middle East Latin America India
60
China Other OECD
40
Europe OECD
20
United States
0 1980 2005 2030
Average Growth / Yr. 2005-2030 Non OECD 4.9% ~ 40% of GDP by 2030 OECD 2.0%
Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
Expanding Economies Drive demand up by 35% OECD
Quadrillion BTUs 450
OECD energy demand flat due to increased energy efficiency, even as GDP rises 60%
300 150
Other Non OECD
Quadrillion BTUs 450
Non OECD demand up > 70%. Higher electricity demand and increased vehicle ownership due to rising prosperity Other
300 150
Africa Middle East Latin America India
0 1980
Europe OECD
2005
United States
2030
China
0 1980 2005 2030 Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
Demand by Sector --
Efficiency is key
Demand would have grown by 84 MBDOE were not for efficiency gains
Quadrillion BTUs 300
1.7% 2030
250
Transportation consumes 70% of oil demand
200
0.9% 2005
150
1.3%
100
0.3%
50 0 Transportation Industrial Res/Comm PowerGen 9
167
Growth
300
Savings
Energy Efficiencies to Accelerate
Efficiency gains saves 55 MBDOE Rate of energy efficiency improvements expected to dramatically accelerate by 50% driven by higher prices and advances in technology
Source:
Energy Information Administration
Transportation Demand Grows 40%
Demand
MBDOE 70
Growth heavily concentrated in Asia. Rising personal income produces steep increase in vehicle ownership, up by 80% by 2030
60
Rail Marine
50
Aviation
40
Light Duty Demand
MBDOE
400 million vehicles more than today,
30
but demand offset by efficiency gains
20
Non OECD
30
Heavy Duty
10 20 10 0 1980 2005
Light Duty
2030
OECD
0 1980 2005 Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook 2030
Electricity Demand will grow by 80%
By Sector
k TWh 30
Transportation By Region
k TWh 30
Demand will grow 150% in NonOECD in conjunction with broader prosperity and rising income Commercial
20 20
Non OECD
10
Residential Other Industry
10 0 1980 2005
Heavy Industry
2030
OECD
0 1980 2005 Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook 2030
Future U.S. Power Costs
Baseload, Startup 2025
2010 cents/kWh 20
$60/ton CO 2 2
15 PV 10 5 0 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal-CCS Gas-CCS Geo Thermal 13 Solar Thermal
Power Generation Mix Evolves
Global Capacity
GW 800 700
Nuclear
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 '05 '30
Wind
'05 '30
Solar
'05 '30
By Generation
k TWh 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980
Oil
14
Gas Coal
2005
Nuclear Wind & Solar Other Renewables
2030
North America
Quadrillion BTUs 140 120 100 80
Power Generation by Fuel
Europe
Quadrillion BTUs 140
Natural Gas and Coal will show the greatest growth.
120 100 80
90% of new power gen in China will be from Coal.
A big impediment and source of conflict with the objective to reduce GHG.
Asia Pacific
Quadrillion BTUs 140 120 100 80
Renewables Nuclear
60 60 60
Coal
40 20 40 20 0 1980 2005 2030 Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook 0 1980 2005 2030 40 20 0
Oil
1980 2005
Gas
2030
By Region
Billion Tons 40 30
Energy-Related CO
2
Emissions
20
Emissions per Capita
Tons per Person
2005 2010 Energy related CO2 emissions in Non-OECD countries exceed by 40% those of OECD, and are doubling those of OECD by 2030
15
2030 Other Non OECD India
20 10
China
10 5
OECD
0 1980 2005 2030 0 United States Europe OECD China India Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
Global Demand by Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs 250 Oil, Gas and Coal will still provide over 80% of total energy demand by 2030
0.7%
200
2.0% 2030
150
0.7%
100
2005 World Average Growth/Yr. ’05 to ’30 – 1.2%
50 0 Oil Gas Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
0.4% 2.3%
Coal Biomass/Other Nuclear
2.1% 9.9%
Hydro/Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels
Global Liquids
Dependence on OPEC will continue to grow
Liquids Demand OPEC Crude ~27 Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 0.8% ~29 ~35 Biofuels ~36 2030 OPEC Non-OPEC 2005 NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other Canadian Oil Sands Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate
Supply 18
Development Challenges and Solutions
Increase World development continues, while lives improve and economies grow Efficiency Mitigate Emissions 8 billion people 100% increase in global GDP 35% increase in energy demand 300 quadrillion BTUs saved via efficiency or equivalent to 55 MBDOE All reliable, affordable energy supplies needed Expand Supplies
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