Transcript Slide 1

Knots, Solutions, and Governance Conundrums
Barrie Stevens
OECD/International Futures Programme
Poland and Regions – the Perspectives of development in the XXI Century
IV Warsaw Conference, 24-25 October 2008
1
A Global Outreach
OECD Member Countries
Countries/Economies Engaged in Working
Relationships with the OECD
2
OECD : Key Tasks

Promote policies to achieve sustainable economic growth and
employment and rising standards of living in member countries, and
contribute to the development of the world economy.

Help member governments address the economic, social and
environmental challenges of globalisation.

Provide a setting where governments can compare policy
experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good
practice, and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies.

Strategic foresight helps underpin the fulfilment of these tasks by
identifying future policy issues (threats and opportunities) and
encouraging early thinking and timely action.
3
Fundamental global trends





Population growth and ageing
Gravitational shift in poles of economic growth
Rising number of important players in the world
economy
Uncertainties of climate change
Growing interconnectedness
4 4
Examples of recent OECD IFP work
related to the “Gordian Knots”

Global Infrastructure Investment Requirements to
2030 (the case of water)

The Bioeconomy to 2030 (the case of food and
agriculture)

The Future of International Migration (the case of
competition for talent)
5 5
Global Infrastructure Investment Requirements
to 2030
6 6
Estimated average annual world infrastructure investment
requirements 2003-2030 (additions and renewal)
In USD Bn and as a percentage of world GDP
Type of
infrastructure
2000-10
Approx. % of
world GDP
2010-20
Approx. % of
world GDP
2020-30
Approx. % of
world GDP
Road
220
0.38
245
0.32
292
0.29
Rail
49
0.09
54
0.07
58
0.06
Telecoms1
654
1.14
646
0.85
171
0.17
Electricity2
127
0.22
180
0.24
241
0.24
Water1,3
576
1.01
772
1.01
1 037
1.03
1. Estimates apply to the years 2005, 2015 and 2025.
2. Transmission and distribution only.
3. Only OECD countries, Russia, China, India and Brazil are considered here.
Table 1 p 29 - Infrastructure to 2030: Telecom, Land Transport, Water and Electricity (2006)
7 7
Water stress by major water basins in 2000 and 2030
Source: OECD Environment
Directorate (2006), Working
Party on Global and Structural
Policies, Revised environmental
baseline for the OECD
environmental outlook to 2030,
20-21 November 2006,
ENV/EPOC/GSP(2006)23
8
Two track approach to bridging the water
infrastructure gap



Find additional funding and develop innovative
approaches to finance (public and private)
Use infrastructure more efficiently and more
intelligently through more demand management,
improved strategic planning, more effective
governance, and improved integration of existing
and new technologies.
Requires major international effort with wide
range of countries, not least in Africa, Middle
East, Central Asia, South and SE Asia…)
9
The Bioeconomy to 2030 : health, industry, and
food & agriculture applications
10 10
Drivers for agricultural production
Population
Increasing Affluence
11
Climate Change
Biofuels
Scale of the challenge

Per capita world grain production to increase from 305kg in
2000 to 340kg in 2030 (2.8 billion tonnes)

Average consumption in developed countries is twice this
amount

Consumption in developing countries is increasing
– Per capita meat consumption in China increased from 20kg
in 1980 to 50kg in 2007

If everyone adopts a European diet, there will be a shortfall of
2.3 billion tonnes
– Assumes no grain use for biofuels
– Assumes no change in yields due to climate change
12
By 2030, bulk of agbio production and R&D will
have moved to developing countries


Strong evidence that European agbio R&D has slowed down
significantly
Developing country activity has increased
– Of the 8 countries planting more than a million ha of GM
crops, 6 are non-OECD countries (Argentina, Brazil, China,
India, Paraguay, South Africa)
– Over 550 biotech field trials have occurred in 47 non-OECD
countries
– Major agricultural biotechnology programmes
Country
Agricultural biotechnology R&D spending (in USD)
Brazil
5 billion over the next 10 years
China
120 million per year, including major projects on GM rice
India
100 million per year
13
Concentration has been intense
Percent of all GM field trial applications by leading firms
1995 – 1997
2,746 field trials
2005-2007
3,207 field trials
Top firm (Monsanto)
22.0%
47.2%
Top 5 firms1
53.0%
79.6%
Top 10 firms
69.0%
90.9%
Top 20 firms
82.7%
96.1%
Top 25 firms
86.4%
97.6%
Source:
OECD, based on the UNU-MERIT GM Field trial database
Notes: (1) The top five firms in 2004-2007 were Monsanto, Targeted Growth,
DuPont-Pioneer Hibred, Bayer Crop Science, and Syngenta.
14
International cooperation
– Given the geographic imbalance between
supply and demand, trade access will be
paramount
– Cooperation and joint ventures for R&D,
particularly to adapt technologies to local
conditions, will be essential
- Robust global competition will help ensure
that R&D is efficient
15
The Future of International Migration
16 16
Major migration patterns in the early 21st Century
Source: United Nations
17
Factors favouring future migration flows to
OECD countries





Persistent income level differentials
Poor social infrastructures (health, education etc.)
War and civil unrest
Poor governance
Climate change and natural disasters
18 18
19
Factors impeding future migration flows to
OECD countries





Fast growth in key non-OECD economies to 2030,
making for growing appetite for labour
Improved education and research facilities in nonOECD countries
Improved health and social infrastructures
Emerging economies as attractors and retainers of
highly skilled manpower
Growing competition for global labour supplies
20 20
International co-operation to manage migration
flows






Labour migration – skilled and unskilled - to alleviate
labour shortages and the adverse impact of ageing
populations in OECD countries
Controlling irregular migration
Securing successful integration of immigrants and
their children
Making best use of the human capital of immigrants
Strengthening co-operation between countries with
respect to migration and development
Managing adverse effects of the “talent crunch”
21 21
The Governance Conundrum (1)




Three different examples of global issues requiring
stronger international co-operation, each involving
wide range of countries in different configurations.
Reflects globalisation where both opportunities and
responsibilities are more widely shared.
Representativeness and inclusiveness required to
address the diversity of countries and issues and
claim legitimacy and credibility.
But how to be inclusive and effective?
22 22
The Governance Conundrum (2)





Is there a trade-off between universality and
effectiveness?
In the current climate, is it then more important to be
effective than legitimate?
New fixed architecture or variable geometry?
Personal relations and institutional memory are key,
but in which setting are they more effective?
OECD experience
23 23
Thank you.
Barrie Stevens
[email protected]
24
World population in 2030
25
OECD's share in world GDP (current PPP US$)
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Note : GDP in current PPP US$ is calculated by multiplying nominal GDPs by current PPP exchange rates.
Source : IMF World Economic Outlook database and Hervé et al . (2007), Globalisation and the Macroeconomic
Policy Environment, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 552.
26 26
Canada
7 million ha
(M, R, S)
United States
57.7 million ha
(C, M, R, S, O)
China
3.5 million ha (C, O)
Brazil
11.5 million ha
(C, S)
Paraguay
2 million ha (S)
Argentina
19.1 million ha (C, M, S)
India
3.8 million ha
(C)
South Africa
1.4 million ha (C, M, S)
Legend
C = Cotton
M=Maize
O = Other
R = Rapeseed
S = Soybean
= Country planting more than 1 000 000 ha of biotech crops
= Country planting less than 1 000 000 ha of biotech crops1
27 27