This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Bölgesel Rekabet Edebilirlik Operasyonel Programı’nın Uygulanması için Kurumsal Kapasitenin Oluşturulmasına Yönelik Teknik Yardım Technical Assistance on Institutional Building for the Implementation of RCOP in Turkey

LFA Objectives, indicators, assumptions

Ankara, 14 September 2011 [email protected]

IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 1

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Contents

1.

2.

LFA and indicators Risks and assumptions: Risk Management for projects Exercise IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 2

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

LFA and indicators

IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 3

Indicators

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey Measurable indicators that will show whether or not objectives have been achieved at each level of the logframe hierarchy and at defined times Indicators provide the basis for designing an appropriate monitoring (and evaluation) system Sources of Verification: the means by which the indicators or milestones will be recorded and made available to project management or those evaluating project performance.

IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 4

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Inputs

Types of indicators

Impacts Result Output

Global objectives Specific objectives Operational objectives

Programme objectives

Programme operations

IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 5

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Quantification of my results

   Output-indicators aim at measuring activities directly realised by the activities. Result-indicators aim at measuring the results and direct effects of the projects and show whether the project purpose has been achieved. Impact-indicators refer to the consequences of the programme beyond the immediate effects on its direct beneficiaries, and are linked to the overall objectives of the programme IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 6

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Quantification of results

IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 7

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Steps in quantification of indicators

• • • • •

Bottom-up approach

Check the budget Estimate the output targets and if the outputs are consistent with the budget (cost per output obtained) Estimate the results targets based on the outputs Check if impact assessment reports are availaible and if yes gather the impacts.

If no, estimate the impacts based on the targets and results (impact – results ratio?)

NB Budget might be leading here and the impact might not be in line with the need or scale of the problem!

IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 8

Example bottom up

(business environment)

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey        Baseline is o m2 technical and social facilties established Budget: 10 million euro Cost per m2: 10000 euro Output: 1000 m2 area of technical and social facilities established Result: 10 artisans and SMEs benefiting Impact: 30 number of people employed NB the need might be for 10.000 m2 IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 9

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Steps in quantification of indicators

(Top down)

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Assess the scale of need or problem Set the impact targets (the amount of need to be serviced by the project) What results have to be achieved to achieve the impacts What outputs have to be achieved to achieve the results NB Danger top down: the outputs might not be feasible given the budget (cost per output)? IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 10

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Example top down approach

• • • • Unemployment in the region is 10.000 persons Project aims at reducing unemployment of 4000 persons with low skills (impact) Results: 5000 trainees received diploma in occupational skills and CV writing (1/5 is not accepted in new job offers) Outputs: 6000 low skilled unemployed trained (1/6 does not qualify)

But is this possible with a necessary budget of 1000 euro per unemployed person?

IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 11

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Identify the indicators for your project and quantify them (and indicate the budget needed)

IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 12

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Assumptions

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Assumptions

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Conditions necessary for the success of the Programme

Purpose of specifying assumptions: •to assess risk of projects •to allow for monitoring during implementation

Pre-conditions:

these have to be met before Starting the project IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 14

Project appraisal and Risks

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey • • • Risks- uncertain events which influence the success of the project Risk – negative statement Assumption – positive statement Purpose of specifying risks: 1.

2.

3.

4.

To assess risks of project failure in an early planning stage To adapt project design when risks are unacceptable To adopt a risk management plan To allow for monitoring during implementation IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 15

Risks in all phases of a project!

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Project Phase 1. Preparation phase

Project identification Project preparation Project appraisal Financing

2. Implementation phase

Procurement & Contracting Monitoring & Supervision Financial Management Finalisation&closure

3. Operational Phase

Ex-post evaluation -

Risk factor

16

Categories of risks

(RISMAN)

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Organisational Political/adminstrative Spatial Financial/economic Technical Social Law Categories of risks

Internal External

IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 17

Risk assessment for projects

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey 1) Identify key project risks according to RISMAN categories in all phases

Before and after contracts Asking questions with below matrixes will help with this!

2) Assess the importance of these risks IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 18

Prioritisation of risks

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey Risk value = probability * impact Impact: effect on costs, time schedule, organisation and quantity and quality (of outputs) of the priority axis

Probability

0.65 - 1.0

0.3 - 0.64

0.0 - 0.29

Impact on the priority axis

Low Medium High Medium Low Low High High Medium Unacceptable Unacceptable High IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 19

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Starting point: key success factors for projects from practice

• • Project relevant for the need of the target group Project potentially effective and efficient (optimal scope, scale, achievable targets and impacts and optimal budget) • • • Experience and competence of beneficiary and contractor Careful planning and preparation Established contacts & involvement of project partners

Risks are when these successfactors are not met

IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 20

Conclusions

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey      Indicators are necessary to monitor and evaluate projects Risk assessment and risk management are essential tools for the success of projects Critical risks: redesign the project Check if the design of projects is critical risk proof Check if risk management is incorporated in the process (procedures, ToR, project management) IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 21

Exercise 1

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey • Groups define a project • For the project make a(n): 1. Assumption/risk assessment: identfy at least 10 risks for your project (in different stages and different categories) 2. What to do about the critical risks?

IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 22

This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey

Exercise 2

• Asses the project logframe of another group and prepare advice IPA Funds Programme Management 12-19 sept. 2011 23