Transcript Current Demographic Trends and the Future of Texas

Current Demographic Changes in Texas
Relevant to Health Workforce Demand
State Health Plan Population Working Group
Presented by
Karl Eschbach, Ph.D.
Current population trends with
implications for health care demand
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Rapid growth rate
Geographic shifts
Shifts in ethnic composition
Aging of the population
Increases in morbidity
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Fastest Growing States, 2000-2009
State
2000
Population
2009
Population
Numerical
Change
2000-2009
Percent
Change
20002009
Rank in
Percent
Change
Texas
20,851,820
24,782,302
3,930,482
18.8
6
California
33,871,648
36,961,664
3,090,016
9.1
19
Florida
15,982,378
18,537,969
2,555,591
16.0
9
Georgia
8,186,453
9,829,211
1,642,758
20.1
4
Arizona
5,130,632
6,595,778
1,465,146
28.6
2
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,380,884
1,331,571
16.5
8
Virginia
7,078,515
7,882,590
804,075
11.4
15
Washington
5,894,121
6,664,195
770,074
13.1
11
Colorado
4,301,261
5,024,748
723,487
16.8
7
Nevada
1,998,257
2,643,085
644,828
32.3
1
Source: 2000 Census and 2009 Vintage Census Bureau Estimates
Sources of population growth 2008 to
2009
• + Births: +410,000
• -Deaths: -164,000
• +Migration from other countries: +88,000
• +Migration from other states: +143,000
• Total: ~477,000
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 Vintage Estimates
Natural Increase in Texas
(Births minus Deaths)
• Birth Rate: 16.8 per 1,000 vs. 14.0 for US (2nd highest)
• Death Rate: 6.8 per 1,000 vs. 8.3 for US (5th lowest)
• Natural Increase: 10.0 per 1,000 vs. 5.7 for US (3rd high)
• Texas is young:
– Median Age:
33.2 vs. 36.8 for US (2nd lowest)
• Texas has a high total fertility rate (Children per woman)
– 2.34 vs. 2.05 for US (4th highest)
Source: NCHS Vital Statistics Data, 2005 http://wonder.cdc.gov/
West Virginia
Maine
Pennsylvania
Vermont
Rhode Island
Alabama
Florida
New Hampshire
Montana
Ohio
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Louisiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Arkansas
Michigan
Oregon
Tennessee
Missouri
North Dakota
District of Columbia
Wisconsin
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Mississippi
New Jersey
New York
Delaware
Indiana
Kansas
Maryland
North Carolina
South Dakota
United States
Washington
Illinois
Wyoming
Virginia
Nebraska
Minnesota
Hawaii
New Mexico
Nevada
Georgia
Colorado
Arizona
California
Idaho
Texas
Alaska
Utah
Natural Increase per 1,000 by state
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Source: NCHS Vital Statistics Data, 2005 http://wonder.cdc.gov/
Total Fertility Rate by Ethnicity, Texas,
2000
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
3.89
2.36
Latina
Latina, U.S.
Immigrant
Born
1.94
Anglo
2.09
1.87
African
American
Other
(Primarily
Asian)
Sources: Calculated from Census 2000 5% Public-Use Microdata File and
National Center for Health Statistics Natality Detail File, 2000,
Annual Net Migration to Texas,
2000 to 2008
250,000
International
State-to-State
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000 to 2001 to 2002 to 2003 to 2004 to 2005 to 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2008 Estimates
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Projected Population of Texas to 2040
(Millions)
45.0
44.9
37.3
40.0
35.8
35.0
30.9
31.8
30.0
25.4
25.0
28.0
24.3
20.9
20.0
2000
2005
2010
2015
1/2 of 1990 to 2000 (Long-Term)
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Estimated 2000 to 2007 (Short Term)
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Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections
Population Change by Area, 2000-2008
Population
County
2000
2008
Change
Percent
Increase
BirthsDeaths
na
Migration
Foreign Domestic
Big 5 Cities
5,524,315 6,334,169
809,854
15
Big 5 Counties
Suburban to
Big Five
9,270,907 10,768,709 1,497,802
16
981,509 580,088 -129,327
3,567,510 4,943,487 1,375,977
39
328,966
93,530
953,905
Border Metros
All Other
Metros
1,777,429 2,098,343
320,914
18
288,302
93,173
-51,103
3,328,702 3,533,922
205,220
6
196,143
38,559
-16,024
All Non-Metro
2,907,272 2,982,513
75,241
3
90,027
46,559
-45,666
20,851,820 24,326,974 3,475,154
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1,884,947 851,909
711,785
Total
Big 5 Cities: Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, Fort Worth
Big 5 Counties: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, Travis
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Counts, 2008 Vintage Estimates
na
na
Growth of Texas Race/Ethnic Groups
2000-2008
Race/
Ethnic Group
Black
2,349,641
2,748,323
398,682
Percent
Increase
17.0
Anglo
10,927,538
11,525,623
598,085
5.5
17.2
Latino
6,670,122
8,870,475
2,200,353
33.0
63.3
Asian
549,054
810,967
261,913
47.7
7.5
Other/Two +
355,465
371,586
16,121
4.5
0.5
20,853,820
24,328,982
3,475,154
16.7
100.0
Total
2000
2008
Growth
Percent of
Growth
11.5
10
Sources: 2000 Census, Census 2008 Vintage Estimates
Projected Population (Millions) by
Race/Ethnicity 2000-2010
Long-term Growth Migration Scenario
Year
Total
Anglo
Black
Latino
Asian and other
2000
20.9
11.1
2.4
6.7
0.7
2010
24.3
11.5
2.8
9.1
1.0
2020
28.0
11.8
3.1
11.9
1.3
2030
31.8
11.8
3.3
15.1
1.6
2040
35.8
11.5
3.4
18.8
2.0
Short-term Growth Migration Scenario
Year
Total
Anglo
Black
Latino
Asian and
Other
2000
20.9
11.1
2.4
6.7
0.7
2010
25.4
11.4
2.9
9.8
1.2
2020
30.9
11.6
3.4
13.9
1.9
2030
37.3
11.5
3.9
19.0
2.9
2040
44.9
11.2
4.3
25.1
4.2
Source: Texas State Data Center Projections
Long-term: ½ of 1990 to 2000; Short-term: Estimated 2000 to 2007
When do Hispanics pass Anglos in Texas?
When do Hispanics become a majority in Texas?
Migration
Scenario
Pass
Anglos
?
Absolute
Majority
?
No Migration
2034
2040+
1/2 of 1990-2000
2020
2035
Observed 1990-2000
2014
2026
Estimated 2000-2007
2015
2028
Source: Texas State Data Center Projections
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Population Growth by Age,
2000 to 2008
2,100,000
1,800,000
1,500,000
1,200,000
900,000
600,000
300,000
0
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
2000
2008
Growth
Sources: 2000 Census, Census 2008 Vintage Estimates
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Table 2. Projected Annual Growth Rate:
Total and Ages 65 and older in Texas, 2000-2040
5
4.24
4
3
2
2.26
1.55
1.73
1.34
1.48
1.11
1
Total
Age 65+
Ratio of Age 65+ to Total
2039
2037
2035
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
0
17
Observed and projected growth by
age, 2000 to 2008, and 2008 to 2016
1,600,000
1,506,311
1,447,201
1,400,000
1,195,772
1,200,000
1,000,000
879,667
875,710
800,000
708,531
752,552
775,069
767,915
774,471
600,000
488,194
399,691
400,000
200,000
0
0-19
20-44
2000 to 2008
45-64
Long Term
75+
Short Term
Sources: U.S. Census 2000, 2008 Vintage Estimates, State Data Center Projections
19
20
Projected percent 65-years-old or
older, 2000-2040 by area
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
21.422.0
16.4
14.7 13.9
12.1
10.0
9.9
15.8 15.5
12.8
9.0
5.0
0.0
2000
2025
2040
16.3
13.7
9.9
Obese or Overweight
1995-2007
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
Texas
United States
Source: Centers for Disease Control, BRFSS
Age and Obesity in Texas
1995, 2000, 2007
35
30
25
20
1995
15
2000
2007
10
5
0
18-24
25-34
35-44
Source: Centers for Disease Control, BRFSS
45-54
55-64
65+
Race/Ethnicity and Obesity in Texas, 1995
and 2007
45
40
35
30
White
Black
Latino/a
Other
25
20
15
10
5
0
1995
Source: Centers for Disease Control, BRFSS
2007
Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by
Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040
Source: Texas State Data Center Projections
Insurance coverage and no insurance
by type for ethnic groups, 2008
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Percent of Texans Reporting a Self-Care
Limitation or Any Limitation, by Age, 2007
90.00
80.00
70.00
Self-care limitation
60.00
Any-Limitation
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
18
55
65
75
85
Source: State Data Center tabulation of U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey, 2007
Percent Age of Texans Age 65 or Older Reporting
An Activity Limitation, 2007, by Ethnicity
30
24.9
25
20.7
20
15
14.2
14
10
5
0
Anglo
Hispanic
Black
Other
Source: State Data Center tabulation of U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey, 2007
Projected Growth of the 65+ Population Reporting a
Self-Care Limitation, 2000 to 2040, Assuming
Constant Age/Sex/Race/Ethnic Rates of Disability
1,400,000
1,301,645
1,200,000
1,000,000
892,197
800,000
585,149
600,000
413,867
400,000
332,074
200,000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Source: Office of the State Demographer, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario
2040
Contact Information
Karl Eschbach, Ph.D.
Professor and Director of Population Research
Department of Internal Medicine-Geriatrics 0460
University of Texas Medical Branch
301 University Blvd
Galveston, TX 77555-0460
(409) 747-3516 Phone
(409) 772-8931 Fax
[email protected]
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